House prices: disaster ahead - today's Times

Generali

Try searching The Economist website. I seem to recall them bringing up things. They started as a magazine for bankers so it would be the logical place to look.

Search on LIBOR or interbank lending.

chappers

For the past 10 years you could always find someone saying a crash was coming, just as you can probably still find someone who says the earth is flat and the moon is made of cheese.
I'm going to stick my neck out here and say house prices are going to rise and when they do will tell you told you so.

HenryWeston

chappers wrote: »

For the past 10 years you could always find someone saying a crash was coming, just as you can probably still find someone who says the earth is flat and the moon is made of cheese.
I'm going to stick my neck out here and say house prices are going to rise and when they do will tell you told you so.

For the past ten years the banks have been literally throwing money at anyone with a pulse, Recently the easy credit has been turned off, its not hard to imagine what happens next to property prices.

HenryWeston

mr.broderick wrote: »

Then what will happen when they fall 30% + and reach "reality" what in your honest opinion will then happen henry?

Maybe when the dust settles most working people will be able to buy a reasonable house to live in and raise a family without bankrupting themselves, is this to much to ask in a 'wealthy' country like the UK.

PasturesNew

m00m00 wrote: »

No, and as I have a doctorate, I could always go back to academia with my tail between my legs in shame if needed. Pity I hate students.

If you've got a tail you can join a travelling circus.
Or get paid £250/time by tabloids for your story + images.



Isn't academia funded by industry ..... who won't be ploughing so much into research grants and funding in a downturn?

m00m00

I'm REALLY good, I'd have no problem getting research money.

my girlfriends PhD has military funding, now there's an industry that's completely independent of economic cycles.

carolt

chappers wrote: »

For the past 10 years you could always find someone saying a crash was coming, just as you can probably still find someone who says the earth is flat and the moon is made of cheese.
I'm going to stick my neck out here and say house prices are going to rise and when they do will tell you told you so.

What is your timescale for them rising? Immediately, without any falls at all (after this 2.5% one, of course)? Ever? Or do you just mean they will fall now but at some point in the future they will rise beyond current levels?

If it's the first 2, I'm happy to stick my neck out and predict that prices will fall lower than they are at present. If you just mean the last one, then yes, I would guess 99.9% of people who post on here -myself included - believe that, unless we have a MASSIVE deflation, of course nominal prices will eventually return to current levels. But it could be a long time..and for real (ie incl. inflation) prices, even longer.

So, chappers - are you prepared to stick your neck out and tell us whether you think prices will ever fall lower than current levels? Because if not, I think you could have some explaining to do next month!

Or did you just mean that at some point prices would rise above current levels? If so, when, and is that nominal or real prices?

Just so as we're all clear.......

jamescredmond

chappers is just winding you up carol. calm down, girl!

couldn't possibly mean it... err... could you...chappers?

if you do, then please regale us all with the overwhelming evidence that only you seem to have access to.

(thinks: steady now, miladdo. he's got you at it as well!)

Pobby

chappers wrote: »

For the past 10 years you could always find someone saying a crash was coming, just as you can probably still find someone who says the earth is flat and the moon is made of cheese.
I'm going to stick my neck out here and say house prices are going to rise and when they do will tell you told you so.

You are certainly right.House prices will rise.After a very steep fall,stagnation for a number of years,wages catch up then we will see them rise again.

Generali

Pobby wrote: »

You are certainly right.House prices will rise.After a very steep fall,stagnation for a number of years,wages catch up then we will see them rise again.

Maybe, maybe not. I can see 2 long-term drivers of falling house prices:

1. As far as I can tell, property prices since WW1 have increased in real terms and at the same times, levels of owner occupation have risen. I don't think that ownership rates can increase particularly from where they are and my belief is that this has been the primary driver of increasing house prices. (I'd be interested in finding actual numbers that I can plot, can anyone help?)

2. The baby boomers are just starting to retire and many of them have inadequate pensions. Why sit alone or with the OH in a 4 bed house worth £4-500k eating economy baked beans? Many will sell up and buy somewhere smaller or in a cheaper area and release a heap of cash to finance a nicer lifestyle.

I can think of no good reason for house prices to rise at a rate faster than wages any more than I can think of a good reason for the price of pickled onions or photograph albums to. It implies that most people will be happy to spend an ever increasing proportion of their income on housing which doesn't make sense to me.