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There is NO recession!
UK007BullDog
Posts: 2,607 Forumite
Top economists do not predict recession
Marcel Le Gouais
Date: 18-Mar-2008
They spoke out at today’s Great Housing Market Debate, in London, hosted by economist John Wriglesworth.
Guests representing various sectors of the property and mortgage industry asked a series of questions to a panel of experts.
The panel was asked if the crisis engulfing the US economy could lead to a UK recession.
Evan Davis, economics editor for the BBC, says: “It would not be my expectation.” He says the UK economy cycle does not need a recession, but he claims it needs a “significant slowdown” to bring inflation back within the Bank of England’s target of 2%. He adds: “It’s a question of whether we can manage the slowdown, how people build up their savings and how we can avoid a vicious circle. But I would not want to rule out a recession.”
Fionnuala Earley, chief economist for Nationwide, says: “We don’t expect to see a recession. There are such vast differences to the economy we have now and the economy in the early 1990s.”
David Miles, chief economist at Morgan Stanley says: “The labour market remains strong and unemployment continues to fall. The number of total job vacancies in January was at a 10-year high.
“While I am pessimistic about house prices, that doesn’t mean a knock on effect for the economy in the form of a recession. We are in for a year of 1% or 2% GDP rather than the 2% or 3% that we’re used to.”
He adds: “A repeat of the early 1990s is clearly possible but not within most economists’ forecasts.”
Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, says: “It’s all about consumers and what they spend their money on.” He warns that if lending gets squeezed further, and consumers stop spending on various types of commodities, then the economy could fall into a vicious circle.
http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=161406
What do you think? Lets discuss this one.
Again no house price crash type posts please, just a healthy discussion under adults.
Marcel Le Gouais
Date: 18-Mar-2008
Four of the nation’s top economists and research analysts say they do not predict a recession for the UK economy.
They spoke out at today’s Great Housing Market Debate, in London, hosted by economist John Wriglesworth.
Guests representing various sectors of the property and mortgage industry asked a series of questions to a panel of experts.
The panel was asked if the crisis engulfing the US economy could lead to a UK recession.
Evan Davis, economics editor for the BBC, says: “It would not be my expectation.” He says the UK economy cycle does not need a recession, but he claims it needs a “significant slowdown” to bring inflation back within the Bank of England’s target of 2%. He adds: “It’s a question of whether we can manage the slowdown, how people build up their savings and how we can avoid a vicious circle. But I would not want to rule out a recession.”
Fionnuala Earley, chief economist for Nationwide, says: “We don’t expect to see a recession. There are such vast differences to the economy we have now and the economy in the early 1990s.”
David Miles, chief economist at Morgan Stanley says: “The labour market remains strong and unemployment continues to fall. The number of total job vacancies in January was at a 10-year high.
“While I am pessimistic about house prices, that doesn’t mean a knock on effect for the economy in the form of a recession. We are in for a year of 1% or 2% GDP rather than the 2% or 3% that we’re used to.”
He adds: “A repeat of the early 1990s is clearly possible but not within most economists’ forecasts.”
Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, says: “It’s all about consumers and what they spend their money on.” He warns that if lending gets squeezed further, and consumers stop spending on various types of commodities, then the economy could fall into a vicious circle.
http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=161406
What do you think? Lets discuss this one.
Again no house price crash type posts please, just a healthy discussion under adults.
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Comments
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It worries me that the people talking about this all have vested interests (in banks etc or property). That said, the people that talk it down have vested interest in that too so who knows lol.I am a Mortgage AdviserYou should note that this site doesn't check my status as a Mortgage Adviser, so you need to take my word for it. This signature is here as I follow MSE's Mortgage Adviser Code of Conduct. Any posts on here are for information and discussion purposes only and shouldn't be seen as financial advice.0
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Ooh - a real soap-box issue for me!
I think that the press don't help. They always seem to want everything to be worse than it is. Talk about making a drama out of a crisis!
I'm no expert, BUT, when people start to believe the hype, that's when things go wrong.
Aiming to be debt-free June 2011 at the latest!!
:jPaid off £6,143 - Egg loan cleared 26 May 2010:j
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"I wish dear Karl could have spent more time acquiring capital than merely writing about it." - Jenny Marx0 -
I agree with Krisp although I know pretty much nothing about it - it just seems that the BBC seem determined to talk us into a recession. 0
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Ooh - a real soap-box issue for me!
I think that the press don't help. They always seem to want everything to be worse than it is. Talk about making a drama out of a crisis!
I'm no expert, BUT, when people start to believe the hype, that's when things go wrong.
Bingo - exactly what I've been saying to many people. Yesterday's headline about people's mortgage deals shooting up by £500 per month when their rate finishes was a prime example. That may be the case for some London stockbrokers with £1 million mortgages but not for the average Joe.0 -
Even the US government admit the country is in recession.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7302068.stm
Where the US leads, the UK follows.....poppy100 -
in my experience (im only 27!) most people do things in life because they see other people doing them. they don't REALLY want to do it, but they assume if lots of people are doing something then it must be a good thing to do. they don't want to miss out or get left behind. for example:
fashion - people want to fit in, to be associated with models, celebs - so they dress like they do.
crowds - everyone follows a crowd - if lots of people are walking that way, then it must be the right way.
houses - buy now or you'll miss out on making 10 grand a year for doing nothing! or sell now or next year you could lose 10 grand!
so maybe their doesn't need to be a recession, but if enough newspapers, news programmes, experts say there might be a recession, then there is going to be one!0 -
in my experience (im only 27!) most people do things in life because they see other people doing them. they don't REALLY want to do it, but they assume if lots of people are doing something then it must be a good thing to do. they don't want to miss out or get left behind. for example:
fashion - people want to fit in, to be associated with models, celebs - so they dress like they do.
crowds - everyone follows a crowd - if lots of people are walking that way, then it must be the right way.
houses - buy now or you'll miss out on making 10 grand a year for doing nothing! or sell now or next year you could lose 10 grand!
so maybe their doesn't need to be a recession, but if enough newspapers, news programmes, experts say there might be a recession, then there is going to be one!
:T
Spot on was thinking the same with NR
The media could wreck this country
But could they do it quicker than labour???0 -
“While I am pessimistic about house prices, that doesn’t mean a knock on effect for the economy in the form of a recession. We are in for a year of 1% or 2% GDP rather than the 2% or 3% that we’re used to.”
Yes, funny that. The deeper we get into the credit crunch the more that figure gets eroded. The Yanks did the same, but today they finally admit than they are in recession.( they used a rather funny expression for it. "declimbing" or something like that. Thats a new one on me ) They keep knocking huge amounts from their base rate with little effect. Are they making things worse? Maybe so. How long is it going to be before or own govenment admit the same?? The official "cooked" rate of inflation shows a rise from 2.1% to 2.5% with more to come.
No house price discussion? Thats a bit hard because something like 60% of our economy is based on the housing bubble. At the end of the day the name says it all "Great Housing Market Debate"
No so called experts are going to blind me to the fact we keep lurching from one financial disaster to the next.0 -
The media have already wrecked this country, we care more about celebs than what is really going on in this country and world we live in. The Media is the new religion, crowd control. While we are thinking about credit crunches and wars we dont have time to ask complicated questions!! Just read 1984!!
However we must also be realistic, and face it that we could enter in to a lull, rather than a full blown recession. We have to cut borrowing, this will hit the lenders, both secured and unsecured, this will also have an effect on a over inflated housing market, the very same market we have been borrowing against and investing in. It cant go on forever and somthing must give!
Also what are the others saying, 4 have this opinion, we must h ave more than 4??
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Just bumping this up for those burning the midnight oil.0
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