'Will house prices crash in 2008?' Poll Results & Discussion

Paul.W_4

My personal opinion is that prices will drop and there will be many casualties.
Why?
The BoE is under no obligation to cut interest rates whatsoever. I suspect that we will see a 1/2 - 3/4 of 1% over the next 6-8 months. Face it people the boom is over.
If the above is correct,then the the total borrowing in many homes will become very difficult to pay. In some cases impossible.
When you take a mortgage the amount you can borrow reflects the amount you can repay each month. The more interest you have to pay the less you will be able to borrow for purchase of a property.
So, regardless of supply and demand people will only be able pay for a house what they can afford ( or they have been told they can afford...) and that may well be dramatically less than in recent times.
Basically, Even if you have 500 people all wanting one £200,00 house, if the best offer posable, based on their available money is £105,000 and the vendor chooses to or indeed has to accept it, that house is now worth £105,000 and so are its' contemporaries. That is why I expect that house prices will make a significant drop over the summer.

mdj1

and with TV programs in the next few weeks. "Panorama" next monday, about Lie To Buy, mortgage fraud and Buy To Let going wrong. And "Reposession, Repossesion, Reposession" ITV1 Wednesday 10:35? I dont think i need to tell you what thats about!

All this will do is make the stone roll faster!

jedk

mdj1 wrote: »

and with TV programs in the next few weeks. "Panorama" next monday, about Lie To Buy, mortgage fraud and Buy To Let going wrong. And "Reposession, Repossesion, Reposession" ITV1 Wednesday 10:35? I dont think i need to tell you what thats about!

So would you prefer to live in a society where the media did not attempt to inform the public?

hampshire_rose

The presence of a much enlarged "speculative" element to the housing market (i.e. "buy-to-let") is likely to magnify the peaks and troughs in prices - in that respect the market could be expected to be much more volatile

We are looking to buy in Cumbria as my husband's job has relocated up there, we have been watching the market since the summer and have noticed many properties coming onto the market that were either second homes or buy to let or holiday lets. This seems to indict that there is a lack of confidence in the market, there are certainly more houses available and they seem to be coming down in price, however there are some that are still very overpriced. These people will have a choice to stay put or to take a loss. So this could make the market more volatile. I personally don't know which way it'll go.

PD1

bulltraderpt wrote: »

I'm so looking forward to large falls next year.

I think it will take at least another 12 months for sellers to realise they have their properties over priced.

This is exactly what I'm seeing in the market where I am interested in buying.

Properties are very slowly being reduced by a few percent.

Buyers must realise credit is tightening, personal debt is high, and unless you have an outstanding house, priced correctly, you better get to used to lower offers.

Good luck.

I agree, a correction in our property market has been on the cards for some time now. The buy to let crowd have boosted it for a while, but now the credit crunch is settling in, they will find it harder to get their mortgages, and buyers will lessen. As the market searches for buyers, the prices will come down.

What we will see is something similar to what has occurred in America and is happening now in our money markets. My personal portfolio has had a 25% drop in value this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see the property market drop by a similar percentage at least.

mdj1

jedk wrote: »

So would you prefer to live in a society where the media did not attempt to inform the public?

NO I LOVE IT!!! There should be more!

John_Pierpoint

There is an interesting graph and discussion:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=8299155&postcount=1143

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?p=8319087

petes123

I don't know if anyone else has posted this info as this is my 1st post. The BBC website has country wide house price information. The data is taken from the Land Registry, which is actual house sales and their prices. You can enter your postcode or town to get a more accurate result and you can choose house type e.g. flat, terraced, semi, detached. It also shows the number of houses sold in each group. Currently they are showing data based on the quarter July-September. I'm expecting it to update to Oct-Dec soon. Interesting result for my town (Cheltenham) is detached down by 12.8%, semis down by 1.8%, terraced down by 2%, flats up by 0.2%.

This is a link to the guide, or go to the BBC home page and enter "house prices" in the search box at top right. Then select the link to "UK house price guide"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/houses.stm

mdj1

What a great link for your first post! Thanks!

David_Cd

Time to sell up and rent?

I'm putting my house on the market, but suspect buyer confidence will be poor and the few offers I get will be very low. [I've owned my house 4 years, 3-bed terraced house in a mill town in Yorkshire]