Timing the market!

Spivo46

I am interested to hear if anyone is thinking about de-risking their current pension portfolio in light of current speculation around a potential pending market crash? I am obviously aware of the dangers of doing this, not timing the market and also leaving investments as a long term project, however, i doubt people will not consider their exposure now due to the current media speculation. I know i am tempted having made good gains recently.

mebu60

Nope. (5 characters too short).

eskbanker

When isn't there "current speculation around a potential pending market crash"? If you look back through these boards, you'll find it a consistent theme for many years, so what convinces you that there's something different afoot?

Edit: I see you asked the same question yourself last year:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6642084/timing-the-market

In the light of "having made good gains recently", how would your portfolio look now if you'd derisked then as a result of speculation?

El_Torro

I recently moved from an 80 / 20 split to 100% equities (global trackers) on investments which I'm going to spend in more than 10 years from now. Foolish perhaps, but since I won't be spending the money for at least 10 years I doubt whether this change will make much difference to my future available cash.

HappyHarry

There is always someone predicting a market crash at any given time. Sometimes they are right, mostly not.

If you believed in every prediction of a crash, you would never put money into the markets.

Markets move up and down. Anyone trying to predict a rise or fall is a fool. (They might be a lucky fool, but they are a fool all the same.)

The usual advice is to leave money that you don't need in the short-term in the markets, and leave money you do need in the short-term in cash.

Spivo46

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82114460#Comment_82114460

thanks for the overview, but i was asking for current thoughts on the subject

Spivo46

Thanks for the feedback - I really hope things work out for you

eskbanker

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82114526#Comment_82114526

Depends exactly what you mean by "current thoughts on the subject" - my view echoes that of most on here that investment strategy should be calibrated with your own objectives and risk tolerance, rather than short-term market movements, and predictions thereof!

Secret2ndAccount

Since you last asked the question on Nov 24th, the S&P500 is up more than 15%. That’s >20% annualised. Good thing you didn’t sit in cash watching that happen. 15% growth you could have had, gone forever… In the same time period, a 10 year UK Gilt has gone from yielding 4.5% to 5.1% So if you want to rebalance – selling some of your stocks, and buying bonds – you could regard that as sensible planning. Depends where you are in relation to your retirement goals – do you need growth or protection?

None of this should be done because of an impending crash. In the history of history only a handful of people have successfully timed a market crash. Most people sit on the sidelines, missing out on massive gains before the crash occurs. Then they fail to get back in at the bottom, because nobody holds up a sign at the end of the crash. Eventually they buy back in at higher prices than where they originally sold.

sheenas

I have an octopus that is very good at predicting market trends.
There are concerns around AI massive spending will not result in the earning targets. So yes the ones who have borrowed to invest might loose their t-shirts. There is speculation that could affect the wider markets etc etc.

any well considered investment portfolio shoutbe balanced to minimise exposure to specific market areas.

mrklaw

I’ll admit I have tipped towards more fixed income. but part of that is mechanically simplifying my income after retirement and gilt yields being high enough to make them feasible.

May even go whole hog and lock the lot. DB kicks in at 60, gilt ladder layered on top, wife’s sipp I could feasibly turn into a fixed term annuity to cover the bridge (with guarantee) and then the rest we don’t need for income stays 100% equity (what a risk taker :P )

but aside from my DB pension, our fixed income vs equities woudl be around 50/50 but most of the fixed income gets spent down over 9 years