What does "forecast" mean here?

MikMikandThriceMik

On the Gov pension website, it says my retirement date is 2032.

It has given me an amount, but is this the amount as per this years pension amount, or is this the amount the website thinks I will get in 2032?

Thanks.

eskbanker

As it states, it "does not include any increase due to inflation", i.e. it's in this year's money.

dunstonh

It has given me an amount, but is this the amount as per this years pension amount, or is this the amount the website thinks I will get in 2032?

There is no way they can know what you will get in 2032 as increases between now and then are based on events that are not yet known. Hence why they use the current figure and why it tells you in the third bullet point that inflation is not included.

Exodi

It is in todays money.

However for your planning, I think it's reasonable to assume that the state pension will keep pace with inflation.

Therefore if you are doing forecasts of what your retirement might look like, I think it's reasonable to either uprate it inline with your inflation estimates, or if working everything out in 'todays money'/aka inflation-adjusted, just using the current stated value.

They can't know what the state pension will be in 2032, as it depends on future average earnings, inflation, policy, etc which is unknowable without a crystal ball. It would also be a bad idea for them to just guess, as inevitably they would have hoards of near-retirees complaining in the future if their previous estimates were too high (or conversely complaining if their estimates were too low and they may have been able to retire slightly earlier).

MikMikandThriceMik

I was contracted out years ago, and it tells me this on this web page, but the same web page shows me whats looks to be the maximum state pension that anyone can receive, thats why I was asking if the results were based on today's pension or some future forecasted/calculated/guesstimated pension.

Ie: it does not look to have removed any pension amount because I was contracted out.

IMHO, HMRC just makes things hard to understand for the simple folk like me.

DRS1

Don't worry about contracting out. That has been taken into account already in your figure. There won't be a further deduction in the future.

eskbanker

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81973323#Comment_81973323

I can't remember exactly where it is on that page (or another linked from it) but there should be an explanation that clarifies that the forecast figures already take contracting out into account and aren't subject to further adjustment.

MikMikandThriceMik

Going back to the actual figures, now showing here.

This page shows that I will get the maximum weekly pension as of 2026/2027 allowance I believe, BUT, the yearly figure is not correct and is greater than either the weekly x 52, or what the yearly pension figure is as mentioned everywhere else for this tax year. If it were this yearly figure and I was getting my pension now, I would be paying tax on £20.69 would I not?

Why would the yearly figure be incorrect?

Oh, I am already retired and living meagerly of savings and small private pension withdrawals, ergo the '5 April 2025' mentioned below.

molerat

The big green box amount is how much you can expect to receive, at today's rates, by the time you reach the stated retirement date. The texts below the box clarify what you need to do, if anything, to reach that amount stating how much you have achieved so far. Any COPE deduction, which is already factored into anything you see on that front page, can be found by going to https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/cope whilst logged in to your account

la531983

Because the pension is paid 4 weekly (4 x 241.30, every 4 weeks), the monthly/annual figure is provided merely for comparison purposes. Nobody is paid monthly or annually.

MikMikandThriceMik

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81973400#Comment_81973400

Hi, did you see my latest post with amounts actually in the green box, and my questions around that?

Thanks.