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State Pension forecast - quick question

I'm 58 and I've paid National Insurance for the last 40 years. I was just looking at my State Pension forecast at https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account

One thing I'm not clear on. Is the forecast based on the assumption that I will continue to work and pay National Insurance from now until my 67th birthday?

If I decided to retire early then would this mean my state pension would reduce?
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  • dunstonh
    dunstonh Posts: 120,075 Forumite
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    One thing I'm not clear on. Is the forecast based on the assumption that I will continue to work and pay National Insurance from now until my 67th birthday?
    It should give you your current qualification and your future. i.e. two figures.  That is unless you have already qualified for the maximum.  In which case, it will say that and give you one figure.

    If I decided to retire early then would this mean my state pension would reduce?
    It depends on whether you have qualified for the maximum or not.

    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
  • grimsalve
    grimsalve Posts: 616 Forumite
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    edited 29 September at 12:34PM
    dunstonh said:
    One thing I'm not clear on. Is the forecast based on the assumption that I will continue to work and pay National Insurance from now until my 67th birthday?
    It should give you your current qualification and your future. i.e. two figures.  That is unless you have already qualified for the maximum.  In which case, it will say that and give you one figure.

    If I decided to retire early then would this mean my state pension would reduce?
    It depends on whether you have qualified for the maximum or not.

    It only gives me one figure (£238.16)
  • Cobbler_tone
    Cobbler_tone Posts: 1,213 Forumite
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    grimsalve said:
    dunstonh said:
    One thing I'm not clear on. Is the forecast based on the assumption that I will continue to work and pay National Insurance from now until my 67th birthday?
    It should give you your current qualification and your future. i.e. two figures.  That is unless you have already qualified for the maximum.  In which case, it will say that and give you one figure.

    If I decided to retire early then would this mean my state pension would reduce?
    It depends on whether you have qualified for the maximum or not.

    It only gives me one figure (£238.16)
    Does it say these magic words underneath?


  • grimsalve
    grimsalve Posts: 616 Forumite
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    grimsalve said:
    dunstonh said:
    One thing I'm not clear on. Is the forecast based on the assumption that I will continue to work and pay National Insurance from now until my 67th birthday?
    It should give you your current qualification and your future. i.e. two figures.  That is unless you have already qualified for the maximum.  In which case, it will say that and give you one figure.

    If I decided to retire early then would this mean my state pension would reduce?
    It depends on whether you have qualified for the maximum or not.

    It only gives me one figure (£238.16)
    Does it say these magic words underneath?



    Yes, it says that. But I wasn't sure if it meant that it could go down if I don't pay into it between now and 2034.
  • Brie
    Brie Posts: 15,264 Ambassador
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    It won't go down unless there's some sort of massive SP overhaul which is highly unlikely as it would be very unpopular.  

    I'd take a screen shot of what it says now and add that to your pension documents.  Take another in a year and see if it says anything radically different (highly unlikely beyond the amount going up a bit in line with normal increases.)
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    Check your state pension on: Check your State Pension forecast - GOV.UK

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  • grimsalve said:
    grimsalve said:
    dunstonh said:
    One thing I'm not clear on. Is the forecast based on the assumption that I will continue to work and pay National Insurance from now until my 67th birthday?
    It should give you your current qualification and your future. i.e. two figures.  That is unless you have already qualified for the maximum.  In which case, it will say that and give you one figure.

    If I decided to retire early then would this mean my state pension would reduce?
    It depends on whether you have qualified for the maximum or not.

    It only gives me one figure (£238.16)
    Does it say these magic words underneath?



    Yes, it says that. But I wasn't sure if it meant that it could go down if I don't pay into it between now and 2034.
    It won't go down but only the first £230.25 benefits from the triple lock increase.

    The additional bit is known as a protected payment and only increases by the CPI element of the triple lock.  The other two elements are ignored for that element.
  • p00hsticks
    p00hsticks Posts: 14,571 Forumite
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    grimsalve said:
    dunstonh said:
    One thing I'm not clear on. Is the forecast based on the assumption that I will continue to work and pay National Insurance from now until my 67th birthday?
    It should give you your current qualification and your future. i.e. two figures.  That is unless you have already qualified for the maximum.  In which case, it will say that and give you one figure.

    If I decided to retire early then would this mean my state pension would reduce?
    It depends on whether you have qualified for the maximum or not.

    It only gives me one figure (£238.16)
    Does it say these magic words underneath?


    grimsalve said:
    dunstonh said:
    One thing I'm not clear on. Is the forecast based on the assumption that I will continue to work and pay National Insurance from now until my 67th birthday?
    It should give you your current qualification and your future. i.e. two figures.  That is unless you have already qualified for the maximum.  In which case, it will say that and give you one figure.

    If I decided to retire early then would this mean my state pension would reduce?
    It depends on whether you have qualified for the maximum or not.

    It only gives me one figure (£238.16)
    As your forecast is already over the normal maximum you can't improve it further and have probably been at that level since the introduction of the new State Pensionin 2016 -  the additonal sum will be a 'Protected payment'
  • QrizB
    QrizB Posts: 19,364 Forumite
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    grimsalve said:
    dunstonh said:
    One thing I'm not clear on. Is the forecast based on the assumption that I will continue to work and pay National Insurance from now until my 67th birthday?
    It should give you your current qualification and your future. i.e. two figures.  That is unless you have already qualified for the maximum.  In which case, it will say that and give you one figure.

    If I decided to retire early then would this mean my state pension would reduce?
    It depends on whether you have qualified for the maximum or not.

    It only gives me one figure (£238.16)
    That is more than the full New State Pension of £230.25 and means that you had some SERPS / S2P / etc. prior to 2016.
    Your NI payments since 2016 haven't increased your state pension entitlement, and if you were to stop working tomorrow your state pension wouldn't be affected.
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  • molerat
    molerat Posts: 34,911 Forumite
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    edited 29 September at 1:11PM
    £238.16 means you have been at above the full new pension amount since its inception in April 2016 and nothing has added to that amount since then apart from the annual uplift.  One of the losers under the new system. 
  • jem16
    jem16 Posts: 19,718 Forumite
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    molerat said:
    £238.16 means you have been at above the full new pension amount since its inception in April 2016 and nothing has added to that amount since then apart from the annual uplift.  One of the lovers under the new system. 
    Lovers or losers?
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