Thinking Early retirement , is it feesable

MinkeyMan

tacpot12 said:

I think the biggest difference between our models is that you are seriously underestimating the likely growth of the state pension. For example, in 2043, I would be pretty sure that that state pension you will be receiving will be much closer to £24,000 than the £15,092 you have in your model. The triple lock ensures that the state pension will rise at at least 2.5%. The Conservatives can't reduce this as most of their voters are elderly, and many of Labour's voters have no other pension provision other than the state pension, so the worst that Labour would introduce would be some means testing, but with pensions it is accepted you have to give people lots of notice about changes that affect their pension planning, so there should plenty of notice and plenty of backlash if the impact is too severe. 

You are also planning to pay too much tax. You can have your tax free lump sum as soon as you stop contributing to your pension. So there are two years (2028 & 2028) when you should pay no tax, but planning to draw no taxable income from your DC pension when you have a personal allowance available is not sensble. You should be planning to withdraw the same (taxable) amount as the personal allowance (less any DB/MOT pension) each year to maximise the tax efficincy. This will make your tax free element go alot further.

Is there some reason why you are defering taking the tax free lump sum? Are SJP saying you can't take it, because if so, you might find they are wrong and you can complain to someone about it. 

Thank you so much.  I have recalculated the state pension. and also the threshold amount.  The important thing for me currently is I can look at an earlier retirement...... The number 1 key thing is not me, but that my wife will be protected, if I go first.  Ofc we would like to enjoy our retirement.. we just want a simple living.. couple of hols a year and some breaks.  I believe we can do this...

On SJP... I am looking at the best option to get away from them now (lesson learned) and reduce these fee's. I think i need to get some IFA advice and look at the best options available

on defering the tax free sum.. I need to look at this....I believe I can take 8% out yearly without penality , and it's cumulative... so i might be able to take out sooner....as soon as I can SJP are gone.

we have our house to consder as well, also how to get our saving working better for us... no one to pass it onto directly.. so might look at equity release at some point on the house ..... Cancer charity's and animal welfare will also benefit with anything left over

tacpot12

It's not an easy decision, and making sure your spouse is secure if anything happens to you is an important consideration. 

Good luck with the decision. 

OldScientist

bjorn_toby_wilde said:

MinkeyMan said:

Mark_d said:

There are a lot of pension estimator calculators out on the internet.  Not sure why you think your assumptions are any more accurate.

I think your 1.7% to pension bee is very high for the benefit you get. There are a good variety of SIPP providers whose fees are mush more reasonable.

I think 89 should be at the lower end of how long you expect to live.  100 is possibly more likely in my opinion.

I think your forecast outgoing are rather conservative.  Private medical costs, health & social care,  and 24/7/365 entertainment for you isn't necessarily going to be cheap.  For me to be confident I'd be comfortable in retirement, I'd want £200k per year.  That's several times more than what I live off at the moment!

well £200K per year for me , just isn't going to happen. without significant high risk investments... I have my wife to think about... we don't have a lavish lifestyle and right now our actual spend per year for essentails is around 17000 and our Holidays around 13000... not looking to change that.  ofc if my pension exceeds 4% say to 7% then I am will beyond the 100 mark...and i do still have 100% equity in my house as well

on the other emulators.. open to any you know of.. I can't find any that take into account my savings

Mmmm. £200k per annum is beyond most of us and the Retirement Living Standards survey suggests a comfortable retirement can be had on 1/5 of that. I don’t know where that figure was plucked from. Maybe the same place as the expectation that you would live to 100 when average UK life expectancy for a man is about 84.

SJP will undoubtedly be a drag on your pension growth with their high fees.  How long are you locked in for?

I agree about the £200k - it would require a portfolio of nearly £6m which is beyond the vast majority of the UK population.

I also note that you are correct that the life expectancy of a man at 60yo is indeed about 84yo. However, there is a projected 25% chance of living to 92yo, a 10% chance of living to 96yo and a 3% chance of living to 100yo. IMO, that small chance of living a long time needs to be planned for*. I guess it is a matter of taste/risk appetite quite where the line is drawn, but drawing it at 84yo would, IMO, result in an unnecessarily high risk. This uncertainty over longevity is also why lifetime guaranteed income (like the SP, DB pensions, and annuities) is so valuable.

* For a heterosexual couple both aged 60yo, the probability of at least one member of living to 100yo is about 9%.

bjorn_toby_wilde

OldScientist said:

bjorn_toby_wilde said:

MinkeyMan said:

Mark_d said:

There are a lot of pension estimator calculators out on the internet.  Not sure why you think your assumptions are any more accurate.

I think your 1.7% to pension bee is very high for the benefit you get. There are a good variety of SIPP providers whose fees are mush more reasonable.

I think 89 should be at the lower end of how long you expect to live.  100 is possibly more likely in my opinion.

I think your forecast outgoing are rather conservative.  Private medical costs, health & social care,  and 24/7/365 entertainment for you isn't necessarily going to be cheap.  For me to be confident I'd be comfortable in retirement, I'd want £200k per year.  That's several times more than what I live off at the moment!

well £200K per year for me , just isn't going to happen. without significant high risk investments... I have my wife to think about... we don't have a lavish lifestyle and right now our actual spend per year for essentails is around 17000 and our Holidays around 13000... not looking to change that.  ofc if my pension exceeds 4% say to 7% then I am will beyond the 100 mark...and i do still have 100% equity in my house as well

on the other emulators.. open to any you know of.. I can't find any that take into account my savings

Mmmm. £200k per annum is beyond most of us and the Retirement Living Standards survey suggests a comfortable retirement can be had on 1/5 of that. I don’t know where that figure was plucked from. Maybe the same place as the expectation that you would live to 100 when average UK life expectancy for a man is about 84.

SJP will undoubtedly be a drag on your pension growth with their high fees.  How long are you locked in for?

I agree about the £200k - it would require a portfolio of nearly £6m which is beyond the vast majority of the UK population.

I also note that you are correct that the life expectancy of a man at 60yo is indeed about 84yo. However, there is a projected 25% chance of living to 92yo, a 10% chance of living to 96yo and a 3% chance of living to 100yo. IMO, that small chance of living a long time needs to be planned for*. I guess it is a matter of taste/risk appetite quite where the line is drawn, but drawing it at 84yo would, IMO, result in an unnecessarily high risk. This uncertainty over longevity is also why lifetime guaranteed income (like the SP, DB pensions, and annuities) is so valuable.

* For a heterosexual couple both aged 60yo, the probability of at least one member of living to 100yo is about 9%.

Interesting statistics and you’re absolutely right, it does need to be planned for.  Drawing the line at 84 would be dangerous as you say.

An annuity could well be the best way to secure that essential income for those without DBs.

MinkeyMan

OldScientist said:

bjorn_toby_wilde said:

MinkeyMan said:

Mark_d said:

There are a lot of pension estimator calculators out on the internet.  Not sure why you think your assumptions are any more accurate.

I think your 1.7% to pension bee is very high for the benefit you get. There are a good variety of SIPP providers whose fees are mush more reasonable.

I think 89 should be at the lower end of how long you expect to live.  100 is possibly more likely in my opinion.

I think your forecast outgoing are rather conservative.  Private medical costs, health & social care,  and 24/7/365 entertainment for you isn't necessarily going to be cheap.  For me to be confident I'd be comfortable in retirement, I'd want £200k per year.  That's several times more than what I live off at the moment!

well £200K per year for me , just isn't going to happen. without significant high risk investments... I have my wife to think about... we don't have a lavish lifestyle and right now our actual spend per year for essentails is around 17000 and our Holidays around 13000... not looking to change that.  ofc if my pension exceeds 4% say to 7% then I am will beyond the 100 mark...and i do still have 100% equity in my house as well

on the other emulators.. open to any you know of.. I can't find any that take into account my savings

Mmmm. £200k per annum is beyond most of us and the Retirement Living Standards survey suggests a comfortable retirement can be had on 1/5 of that. I don’t know where that figure was plucked from. Maybe the same place as the expectation that you would live to 100 when average UK life expectancy for a man is about 84.

SJP will undoubtedly be a drag on your pension growth with their high fees.  How long are you locked in for?

I agree about the £200k - it would require a portfolio of nearly £6m which is beyond the vast majority of the UK population.

I also note that you are correct that the life expectancy of a man at 60yo is indeed about 84yo. However, there is a projected 25% chance of living to 92yo, a 10% chance of living to 96yo and a 3% chance of living to 100yo. IMO, that small chance of living a long time needs to be planned for*. I guess it is a matter of taste/risk appetite quite where the line is drawn, but drawing it at 84yo would, IMO, result in an unnecessarily high risk. This uncertainty over longevity is also why lifetime guaranteed income (like the SP, DB pensions, and annuities) is so valuable.

* For a heterosexual couple both aged 60yo, the probability of at least one member of living to 100yo is about 9%.

Thanks guys , I have been thinking on the best direction to take.. I have 2 years 4 months to figure out the best options open.. My current Model shows at 84 my pension would be gone based on 4% , my savings would run out at 89. 

At 5% growth pension would stretch out till 89 and savings out till 95 . 

 if I stick at the 4% or even 3% , and look at releasing equity out on the house (80,000) I would still be looking into the Mid 90's before I am relying on state pension

not playing to stereotypes here.. but I am scottish (glasgow) , ex smoker and haven't had the most healthiest of lifestyles. My wife does have health problems too. I have lost all my family to cancer early in there lifes, including my daughter... It's time we started to enjoy our lifes.. life is too short (for some). Maybe I should plan for living longer.. but I have worked hard on what i have done so far ,it  has allowed me to build up our pension pot and savings, own our house outright, in the last 6 years I  fitted 2 new bathrooms , kitchen , new roof , new windows, we own both our cars 3yrs old (cash) and have 0 debt. our current spend isn't great... 17k essential and 13k discretionary per year (holidays and breaks). on my current salary I split into 3rds... 1 3rd goes into my pension pot , 1 3rd goes into savings (i like cash), the other 3rd and my wifes part time job go to covering bills etc , with anything left over going into savings... when I do retire I don't see our spend changing that much.... but also belive in living to your means.. so if that means dropping our yearly spend by a few grand that's what I will do

but saying all that my biggest and only consideration right now is protecting my wife , that is what I have worked for all my life.  do i take the gamble of relying on my pension growing at 4% or greater as modeled or secure it down with an annuity.  

Bostonerimus1

MinkeyMan said:

OldScientist said:

bjorn_toby_wilde said:

MinkeyMan said:

Mark_d said:

There are a lot of pension estimator calculators out on the internet.  Not sure why you think your assumptions are any more accurate.

I think your 1.7% to pension bee is very high for the benefit you get. There are a good variety of SIPP providers whose fees are mush more reasonable.

I think 89 should be at the lower end of how long you expect to live.  100 is possibly more likely in my opinion.

I think your forecast outgoing are rather conservative.  Private medical costs, health & social care,  and 24/7/365 entertainment for you isn't necessarily going to be cheap.  For me to be confident I'd be comfortable in retirement, I'd want £200k per year.  That's several times more than what I live off at the moment!

well £200K per year for me , just isn't going to happen. without significant high risk investments... I have my wife to think about... we don't have a lavish lifestyle and right now our actual spend per year for essentails is around 17000 and our Holidays around 13000... not looking to change that.  ofc if my pension exceeds 4% say to 7% then I am will beyond the 100 mark...and i do still have 100% equity in my house as well

on the other emulators.. open to any you know of.. I can't find any that take into account my savings

Mmmm. £200k per annum is beyond most of us and the Retirement Living Standards survey suggests a comfortable retirement can be had on 1/5 of that. I don’t know where that figure was plucked from. Maybe the same place as the expectation that you would live to 100 when average UK life expectancy for a man is about 84.

SJP will undoubtedly be a drag on your pension growth with their high fees.  How long are you locked in for?

I agree about the £200k - it would require a portfolio of nearly £6m which is beyond the vast majority of the UK population.

I also note that you are correct that the life expectancy of a man at 60yo is indeed about 84yo. However, there is a projected 25% chance of living to 92yo, a 10% chance of living to 96yo and a 3% chance of living to 100yo. IMO, that small chance of living a long time needs to be planned for*. I guess it is a matter of taste/risk appetite quite where the line is drawn, but drawing it at 84yo would, IMO, result in an unnecessarily high risk. This uncertainty over longevity is also why lifetime guaranteed income (like the SP, DB pensions, and annuities) is so valuable.

* For a heterosexual couple both aged 60yo, the probability of at least one member of living to 100yo is about 9%.

Thanks guys , I have been thinking on the best direction to take.. I have 2 years 4 months to figure out the best options open.. My current Model shows at 84 my pension would be gone based on 4% , my savings would run out at 89. 

At 5% growth pension would stretch out till 89 and savings out till 95 . 

 if I stick at the 4% or even 3% , and look at releasing equity out on the house (80,000) I would still be looking into the Mid 90's before I am relying on state pension

not playing to stereotypes here.. but I am scottish (glasgow) , ex smoker and haven't had the most healthiest of lifestyles. My wife does have health problems too. I have lost all my family to cancer early in there lifes, including my daughter... It's time we started to enjoy our lifes.. life is too short (for some). Maybe I should plan for living longer.. but I have worked hard on what i have done so far ,it  has allowed me to build up our pension pot and savings, own our house outright, in the last 6 years I  fitted 2 new bathrooms , kitchen , new roof , new windows, we own both our cars 3yrs old (cash) and have 0 debt. our current spend isn't great... 17k essential and 13k discretionary per year (holidays and breaks). on my current salary I split into 3rds... 1 3rd goes into my pension pot , 1 3rd goes into savings (i like cash), the other 3rd and my wifes part time job go to covering bills etc , with anything left over going into savings... when I do retire I don't see our spend changing that much.... but also belive in living to your means.. so if that means dropping our yearly spend by a few grand that's what I will do

but saying all that my biggest and only consideration right now is protecting my wife , that is what I have worked for all my life.  do i take the gamble of relying on my pension growing at 4% or greater as modeled or secure it down with an annuity.  

Remember SWR numbers like 4% don't include any financial fees. So with SJP taking 1.7% the amount you'll have to spend on yourself in the early years of retirement will be 2.3%. The SJP fees are more than a higher rate tax payer would pay in income tax and almost as much as the top 45% rate.

MinkeyMan

Bostonerimus1 said:

MinkeyMan said:

OldScientist said:

bjorn_toby_wilde said:

MinkeyMan said:

Mark_d said:

There are a lot of pension estimator calculators out on the internet.  Not sure why you think your assumptions are any more accurate.

I think your 1.7% to pension bee is very high for the benefit you get. There are a good variety of SIPP providers whose fees are mush more reasonable.

I think 89 should be at the lower end of how long you expect to live.  100 is possibly more likely in my opinion.

I think your forecast outgoing are rather conservative.  Private medical costs, health & social care,  and 24/7/365 entertainment for you isn't necessarily going to be cheap.  For me to be confident I'd be comfortable in retirement, I'd want £200k per year.  That's several times more than what I live off at the moment!

well £200K per year for me , just isn't going to happen. without significant high risk investments... I have my wife to think about... we don't have a lavish lifestyle and right now our actual spend per year for essentails is around 17000 and our Holidays around 13000... not looking to change that.  ofc if my pension exceeds 4% say to 7% then I am will beyond the 100 mark...and i do still have 100% equity in my house as well

on the other emulators.. open to any you know of.. I can't find any that take into account my savings

Mmmm. £200k per annum is beyond most of us and the Retirement Living Standards survey suggests a comfortable retirement can be had on 1/5 of that. I don’t know where that figure was plucked from. Maybe the same place as the expectation that you would live to 100 when average UK life expectancy for a man is about 84.

SJP will undoubtedly be a drag on your pension growth with their high fees.  How long are you locked in for?

I agree about the £200k - it would require a portfolio of nearly £6m which is beyond the vast majority of the UK population.

I also note that you are correct that the life expectancy of a man at 60yo is indeed about 84yo. However, there is a projected 25% chance of living to 92yo, a 10% chance of living to 96yo and a 3% chance of living to 100yo. IMO, that small chance of living a long time needs to be planned for*. I guess it is a matter of taste/risk appetite quite where the line is drawn, but drawing it at 84yo would, IMO, result in an unnecessarily high risk. This uncertainty over longevity is also why lifetime guaranteed income (like the SP, DB pensions, and annuities) is so valuable.

* For a heterosexual couple both aged 60yo, the probability of at least one member of living to 100yo is about 9%.

Thanks guys , I have been thinking on the best direction to take.. I have 2 years 4 months to figure out the best options open.. My current Model shows at 84 my pension would be gone based on 4% , my savings would run out at 89. 

At 5% growth pension would stretch out till 89 and savings out till 95 . 

 if I stick at the 4% or even 3% , and look at releasing equity out on the house (80,000) I would still be looking into the Mid 90's before I am relying on state pension

not playing to stereotypes here.. but I am scottish (glasgow) , ex smoker and haven't had the most healthiest of lifestyles. My wife does have health problems too. I have lost all my family to cancer early in there lifes, including my daughter... It's time we started to enjoy our lifes.. life is too short (for some). Maybe I should plan for living longer.. but I have worked hard on what i have done so far ,it  has allowed me to build up our pension pot and savings, own our house outright, in the last 6 years I  fitted 2 new bathrooms , kitchen , new roof , new windows, we own both our cars 3yrs old (cash) and have 0 debt. our current spend isn't great... 17k essential and 13k discretionary per year (holidays and breaks). on my current salary I split into 3rds... 1 3rd goes into my pension pot , 1 3rd goes into savings (i like cash), the other 3rd and my wifes part time job go to covering bills etc , with anything left over going into savings... when I do retire I don't see our spend changing that much.... but also belive in living to your means.. so if that means dropping our yearly spend by a few grand that's what I will do

but saying all that my biggest and only consideration right now is protecting my wife , that is what I have worked for all my life.  do i take the gamble of relying on my pension growing at 4% or greater as modeled or secure it down with an annuity.  

Remember SWR numbers like 4% don't include any financial fees. So with SJP taking 1.7% the amount you'll have to spend on yourself in the early years of retirement will be 2.3%. The SJP fees are more than a higher rate tax payer would pay in income tax and almost as much as the top 45% rate.

Bostonerimus1 said:

MinkeyMan said:

OldScientist said:

bjorn_toby_wilde said:

MinkeyMan said:

Mark_d said:

There are a lot of pension estimator calculators out on the internet.  Not sure why you think your assumptions are any more accurate.

I think your 1.7% to pension bee is very high for the benefit you get. There are a good variety of SIPP providers whose fees are mush more reasonable.

I think 89 should be at the lower end of how long you expect to live.  100 is possibly more likely in my opinion.

I think your forecast outgoing are rather conservative.  Private medical costs, health & social care,  and 24/7/365 entertainment for you isn't necessarily going to be cheap.  For me to be confident I'd be comfortable in retirement, I'd want £200k per year.  That's several times more than what I live off at the moment!

well £200K per year for me , just isn't going to happen. without significant high risk investments... I have my wife to think about... we don't have a lavish lifestyle and right now our actual spend per year for essentails is around 17000 and our Holidays around 13000... not looking to change that.  ofc if my pension exceeds 4% say to 7% then I am will beyond the 100 mark...and i do still have 100% equity in my house as well

on the other emulators.. open to any you know of.. I can't find any that take into account my savings

Mmmm. £200k per annum is beyond most of us and the Retirement Living Standards survey suggests a comfortable retirement can be had on 1/5 of that. I don’t know where that figure was plucked from. Maybe the same place as the expectation that you would live to 100 when average UK life expectancy for a man is about 84.

SJP will undoubtedly be a drag on your pension growth with their high fees.  How long are you locked in for?

I agree about the £200k - it would require a portfolio of nearly £6m which is beyond the vast majority of the UK population.

I also note that you are correct that the life expectancy of a man at 60yo is indeed about 84yo. However, there is a projected 25% chance of living to 92yo, a 10% chance of living to 96yo and a 3% chance of living to 100yo. IMO, that small chance of living a long time needs to be planned for*. I guess it is a matter of taste/risk appetite quite where the line is drawn, but drawing it at 84yo would, IMO, result in an unnecessarily high risk. This uncertainty over longevity is also why lifetime guaranteed income (like the SP, DB pensions, and annuities) is so valuable.

* For a heterosexual couple both aged 60yo, the probability of at least one member of living to 100yo is about 9%.

Thanks guys , I have been thinking on the best direction to take.. I have 2 years 4 months to figure out the best options open.. My current Model shows at 84 my pension would be gone based on 4% , my savings would run out at 89. 

At 5% growth pension would stretch out till 89 and savings out till 95 . 

 if I stick at the 4% or even 3% , and look at releasing equity out on the house (80,000) I would still be looking into the Mid 90's before I am relying on state pension

not playing to stereotypes here.. but I am scottish (glasgow) , ex smoker and haven't had the most healthiest of lifestyles. My wife does have health problems too. I have lost all my family to cancer early in there lifes, including my daughter... It's time we started to enjoy our lifes.. life is too short (for some). Maybe I should plan for living longer.. but I have worked hard on what i have done so far ,it  has allowed me to build up our pension pot and savings, own our house outright, in the last 6 years I  fitted 2 new bathrooms , kitchen , new roof , new windows, we own both our cars 3yrs old (cash) and have 0 debt. our current spend isn't great... 17k essential and 13k discretionary per year (holidays and breaks). on my current salary I split into 3rds... 1 3rd goes into my pension pot , 1 3rd goes into savings (i like cash), the other 3rd and my wifes part time job go to covering bills etc , with anything left over going into savings... when I do retire I don't see our spend changing that much.... but also belive in living to your means.. so if that means dropping our yearly spend by a few grand that's what I will do

but saying all that my biggest and only consideration right now is protecting my wife , that is what I have worked for all my life.  do i take the gamble of relying on my pension growing at 4% or greater as modeled or secure it down with an annuity.  

Remember SWR numbers like 4% don't include any financial fees. So with SJP taking 1.7% the amount you'll have to spend on yourself in the early years of retirement will be 2.3%. The SJP fees are more than a higher rate tax payer would pay in income tax and almost as much as the top 45% rate.

Thanks , in my model I have calculated the fee's and taken them off each year for the projection. As for SJP i am looking at what options are open to me currently to get away from them

Cus

What does the 1.7% include? Undoubtedly you are paying more than needed, but as a comparison, ensure it's not apples and oranges.  If the 1.7% includes all transaction costs, fund costs, custody, etc then ensure that any DIY costs are comparable.  As mentioned many times here, the Mifid2 requirements to ensure all costs are displayed for professional services need to be comparable with any DIY methods that may not include certain elements of the total costs.

Notepad_Phil

MinkeyMan said:

OldScientist said:

bjorn_toby_wilde said:

MinkeyMan said:

Mark_d said:

There are a lot of pension estimator calculators out on the internet.  Not sure why you think your assumptions are any more accurate.

I think your 1.7% to pension bee is very high for the benefit you get. There are a good variety of SIPP providers whose fees are mush more reasonable.

I think 89 should be at the lower end of how long you expect to live.  100 is possibly more likely in my opinion.

I think your forecast outgoing are rather conservative.  Private medical costs, health & social care,  and 24/7/365 entertainment for you isn't necessarily going to be cheap.  For me to be confident I'd be comfortable in retirement, I'd want £200k per year.  That's several times more than what I live off at the moment!

well £200K per year for me , just isn't going to happen. without significant high risk investments... I have my wife to think about... we don't have a lavish lifestyle and right now our actual spend per year for essentails is around 17000 and our Holidays around 13000... not looking to change that.  ofc if my pension exceeds 4% say to 7% then I am will beyond the 100 mark...and i do still have 100% equity in my house as well

on the other emulators.. open to any you know of.. I can't find any that take into account my savings

Mmmm. £200k per annum is beyond most of us and the Retirement Living Standards survey suggests a comfortable retirement can be had on 1/5 of that. I don’t know where that figure was plucked from. Maybe the same place as the expectation that you would live to 100 when average UK life expectancy for a man is about 84.

SJP will undoubtedly be a drag on your pension growth with their high fees.  How long are you locked in for?

I agree about the £200k - it would require a portfolio of nearly £6m which is beyond the vast majority of the UK population.

I also note that you are correct that the life expectancy of a man at 60yo is indeed about 84yo. However, there is a projected 25% chance of living to 92yo, a 10% chance of living to 96yo and a 3% chance of living to 100yo. IMO, that small chance of living a long time needs to be planned for*. I guess it is a matter of taste/risk appetite quite where the line is drawn, but drawing it at 84yo would, IMO, result in an unnecessarily high risk. This uncertainty over longevity is also why lifetime guaranteed income (like the SP, DB pensions, and annuities) is so valuable.

* For a heterosexual couple both aged 60yo, the probability of at least one member of living to 100yo is about 9%.

...

but saying all that my biggest and only consideration right now is protecting my wife , that is what I have worked for all my life.  do i take the gamble of relying on my pension growing at 4% or greater as modeled or secure it down with an annuity.  

There is the option of doing both at whatever percentage you feel comfortable with - maybe 80% annuity to cover the majority of your lifestyle  and then 20% SWR to cover the items that you feel you could cut back on if you needed to. And of course there'd be nothing to stop you from converting the rest to an annuity at a later date - though you would be at the mercy at whatever the annuity rates were at that later date.