My pension investment strategy S&P500. Wise or foolish ?

DATMAN_2 · 23 July at 7:07PM

Thanks for all your comments. I do have world ETF funds (which as you are know all are largely US weighted) and UK dividend ETF and stocks.

BAT has been a great stock since I invested last year with a lump sum from work bonus and it has seen huge growth and large dividends.

I do believe that the next five years ( I will still be working 53 to 58) will be dominated by AI and cyber security.

Plan is to DCA (or £CA) monthly (see below what I am currently doing) for at least three years. The final two years before retiring will be setting up with a newer car and house refurb etc before retiring and travelling. Hopefully the cash ISA buffer will ride out a crash which historically lasts no more than 24 months.

I do believe that US will outperform all countries in the next 10 years. Although I am totally are on the opposite side of Trump politically, I do think that his policies will force back companies into the US which will only increase investment there.

This is a bit risky I know but I am still working and although I would not like to…I could do PT work for a few years after 58.

S&P500 ETF 45%
World ETF 10%
UK dividend ETF 5%
Japan ETF 5%
35%between Tesla, Palantir, Nvidia, Sofi and other mag 7 depending on share price. Tesla is the most volatile and I do find that I buy more when the price is lower and sell 30 % off (to DCA back in) when I believe that the share price is now getting to a stupid place.

Generally, I am very risk adverse person but think this strategy has worked for me (thus far).

Once again thanks

dunstonh · 23 July at 9:06PM

Generally, I am very risk adverse person but think this strategy has worked for me (thus far).

The sort of thing people were saying in the original dot.com boom before going on to lose 90% of their value.

Bostonerimus1 · 23 July at 9:07PM

DATMAN_2 said:

Thanks for all your comments. I do have world ETF funds (which as you are know all are largely US weighted) and UK dividend ETF and stocks.

BAT has been a great stock since I invested last year with a lump sum from work bonus and it has seen huge growth and large dividends.

I do believe that the next five years ( I will still be working 53 to 58) will be dominated by AI and cyber security.

Plan is to DCA (or £CA) monthly (see below what I am currently doing) for at least three years. The final two years before retiring will be setting up with a newer car and house refurb etc before retiring and travelling. Hopefully the cash ISA buffer will ride out a crash which historically lasts no more than 24 months.

I do believe that US will outperform all countries in the next 10 years. Although I am totally are on the opposite side of Trump politically, I do think that his policies will force back companies into the US which will only increase investment there.

This is a bit risky I know but I am still working and although I would not like to…I could do PT work for a few years after 58.

S&P500 ETF 45%
World ETF 10%
UK dividend ETF 5%
Japan ETF 5%
35%between Tesla, Palantir, Nvidia, Sofi and other mag 7 depending on share price. Tesla is the most volatile and I do find that I buy more when the price is lower and sell 30 % off (to DCA back in) when I believe that the share price is now getting to a stupid place.

Generally, I am very risk adverse person but think this strategy has worked for me (thus far).

Once again thanks

Risk averse? Yet you have 35% in what could be very volatile individual stocks and are trying to time the market. With such a portfolio you will need a very well thought out withdrawal strategy and good feedback between your drawdown income and spending. Have you looked at the various drawdown methods and how your portfolio fits into the one you chose to follow?

DATMAN_2 · 23 July at 9:14PM

Not timing market at all.

DCA each month and do take sell up-to 30% off to DCA back in.

kempiejon · 23 July at 9:18PM

It is a trust that your idea of the future will likely come to pass, you tilted the portfolio towards that belief.
I'm confident that's not a skill I have. Bon chance.

Bostonerimus1 · 24 July at 2:04AM

DATMAN_2 said:

Not timing market at all.

DCA each month and do take sell up-to 30% off to DCA back in.

Using terms like "when I believe" sounds like market timing to me. It's good that you DCA, but maybe you should rebalance to some objective criteria. I would concentrate on the historical standard deviation of return from your portfolio rather than its historical return when you do your planning.

I think you need to look at how you will take income from interest, dividends and capital gains...and also capital when necessary. A 4 year cash buffer is a good thing to have if you can afford it, but it should not be more than 10% of your portfolio as more becomes a drag on returns.

Pat38493 · 24 July at 8:10AM

DATMAN_2 said:

I do believe that the next five years ( I will still be working 53 to 58) will be dominated by AI and cyber security.

Quite probably it will - however we don't know whether it will be dominated by continuing growth in those areas, or by a huge crash like the dot com crash of year 2000. In my opinion the latter is just as likely. Problem is - nobody knows when the crash will happen - it could be next week or it could be in 3 years.