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Retirement plan geared to sequence of return risk, what to do when portfolio is rising
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An interesting thread for me as I am in a similar position, albeit 7 years post retirement. We too have a good floor from DB / SP, once they come on line, and planned a fixed percentage withdrawal from an equity portfolio, flowing into a cash buffer, like Linton's, from which we take our annual spending.
I too did loads of modelling of situations where equities dropped, and none for what happens if they do much better than expected. It's a very nice problem to have, but does take some getting your head around. In my view there are basically five things you can do with the 'excess':- Use it to raise the floor by buying more guaranteed income;
- Use it to increase the cash buffer to make you even more protected against volatility;
- Change your asset allocation trading off likely growth for reduced volatility (but presumably you had a reason for not doing this in the first place)
- Invest it in your drawdown fund, making the volatile income bigger;
- Spend it / give it away
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At 1% drawdown almost any asset allocation from 100% cash to 100% equities will safely cover your expenses even oif you live to be 100. So I would look at the various asset allocation and withdrawal method options you have. Here's a nice starter.
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Withdrawal_methods
There are various methods from the relative complexity of Guyton-Klinger to the simplicity of just taking dividends and interest.And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.1
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