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Retirement plan geared to sequence of return risk, what to do when portfolio is rising

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  • Triumph13
    Triumph13 Posts: 2,000 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper I've been Money Tipped!
    An interesting thread for me as I am in a similar position, albeit 7 years post retirement.  We too have a good floor from DB / SP, once they come on line, and planned a fixed percentage withdrawal from an equity portfolio, flowing into a cash buffer, like Linton's, from which we take our annual spending.

    I too did loads of modelling of situations where equities dropped, and none for what happens if they do much better than expected.  It's a very nice problem to have, but does take some getting your head around.  In my view there are basically five things you can do with the 'excess':
    1. Use it to raise the floor by buying more guaranteed income;
    2. Use it to increase the cash buffer to make you even more protected against volatility;
    3. Change your asset allocation trading off likely growth for reduced volatility (but presumably you had a reason for not doing this in the first place)
    4. Invest it in your drawdown fund, making the volatile income bigger; 
    5. Spend it / give it away
    Everyone will have their own answer for the right balance, but at the end of the day it almost certainly doesn't really matter - which is why you didn't bother planning for it in the first place.
  • Bostonerimus1
    Bostonerimus1 Posts: 1,476 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Second Anniversary Name Dropper
    At 1% drawdown almost any asset allocation from 100% cash to 100% equities will safely cover your expenses even oif you live to be 100. So I would look at the various asset allocation and withdrawal method options you have. Here's a nice starter.

    https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Withdrawal_methods

    There are various methods from the relative complexity of Guyton-Klinger to the simplicity of just taking dividends and interest. 
    And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.
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