Solar options (mind field)

Martyn1981

Newbie_John said:

Martyn1981 said:
(1) Not sure that's right, you seem to be excluding any value of / from the PV after the 10yrs.

(2) So, during the 10yrs, let's say you generate 7,000kWh pa, consume 3,000 displacing day rate leccy at 20p/kWh, that's £600pa, plus export 4,000 at 5p/kWh, adds another £200, taking us to £800. So that's much higher than your £280 figure. [I think those leccy rates are reasonable to low.]

(1) No, I just trying to make it clear that it's an investment where you put £7000 and you will start making some pounds after minimum 10 years. Imagine a saving account where you put £7000 and after 10 years you have £7000 and then you will be getting 5% a year, this sounds bad.

(2) It's all really down to numbers, as with any business I try to take realistic/pesimistic point of view before putting a lot of money into something and then regret. 
A: generation - this is probably the most reliable based on number of panels
B: consumption - 3000kWh at 20p rate - if sun is out you can run dishwasher during the day for free, but without panels you could be on one of the TOU tarrifs with cheap time slots like 6p at night - and run dishwasher then. So what's the actual saving here? 6p? We know the price in July will drop from 27p to 25 but what will it be in 2035?
C: export - another tricky one, fine now but I will give you example from Poland where solar market became oversaturated - on a sunny summer day when the generation is too high - people simply get switched off and electricity is not being purchased from them. Will this happen in UK in 10-20 years? It's a possibility.
Savings, yes similar story here, can go down to 0% but some of the funds Bluefield solar / Next energy solar / octopus renewables can continue paying diivdends of 10% for that time..

All in all, it's an investment - you can make it work - but it's not guaranteed.
 

But you don't wait 10yrs to make any money, you make money in year one, just like the interest you make in year one on the cash investment. If you like, depreciate the PV asset over 20yrs at £350pa, and you make a profit in year one of £450. You could then compare that to your investment if you like and deduct a further £280pa as cost of capital, but you still end up £170pa better off.

Whether the £7k is in a savings account, or in PV assets, it's still invested, and both make money in year one. Your calculations immediately depreciate the PV investment by 100%, which is not the correct approach.

It may not be the right investment for you, or others, but the calculations need to be the same on both sides, and you seem to keep missing or misrepresenting the PV side.

[With regard to your suggestion that export payments could be zero at times in 10-20yrs, yes maybe, or maybe not. But that timeline is after the 10yrs you set and to which I was replying, and I used what I believe to be a very reasonable 5p/kWh, when I'm actually earning 15p/kWh.]

prowla

A "mind field" - maybe you're over thinking it?

NedS

Martyn1981 said:

Newbie_John said:

Martyn1981 said:
(1) Not sure that's right, you seem to be excluding any value of / from the PV after the 10yrs.

(2) So, during the 10yrs, let's say you generate 7,000kWh pa, consume 3,000 displacing day rate leccy at 20p/kWh, that's £600pa, plus export 4,000 at 5p/kWh, adds another £200, taking us to £800. So that's much higher than your £280 figure. [I think those leccy rates are reasonable to low.]

(1) No, I just trying to make it clear that it's an investment where you put £7000 and you will start making some pounds after minimum 10 years. Imagine a saving account where you put £7000 and after 10 years you have £7000 and then you will be getting 5% a year, this sounds bad.

(2) It's all really down to numbers, as with any business I try to take realistic/pesimistic point of view before putting a lot of money into something and then regret. 
A: generation - this is probably the most reliable based on number of panels
B: consumption - 3000kWh at 20p rate - if sun is out you can run dishwasher during the day for free, but without panels you could be on one of the TOU tarrifs with cheap time slots like 6p at night - and run dishwasher then. So what's the actual saving here? 6p? We know the price in July will drop from 27p to 25 but what will it be in 2035?
C: export - another tricky one, fine now but I will give you example from Poland where solar market became oversaturated - on a sunny summer day when the generation is too high - people simply get switched off and electricity is not being purchased from them. Will this happen in UK in 10-20 years? It's a possibility.
Savings, yes similar story here, can go down to 0% but some of the funds Bluefield solar / Next energy solar / octopus renewables can continue paying diivdends of 10% for that time..

All in all, it's an investment - you can make it work - but it's not guaranteed.
 

But you don't wait 10yrs to make any money, you make money in year one, just like the interest you make in year one on the cash investment. If you like, depreciate the PV asset over 20yrs at £350pa, and you make a profit in year one of £450. You could then compare that to your investment if you like and deduct a further £280pa as cost of capital, but you still end up £170pa better off.

Whether the £7k is in a savings account, or in PV assets, it's still invested, and both make money in year one. Your calculations immediately depreciate the PV investment by 100%, which is not the correct approach.

It may not be the right investment for you, or others, but the calculations need to be the same on both sides, and you seem to keep missing or misrepresenting the PV side.

[With regard to your suggestion that export payments could be zero at times in 10-20yrs, yes maybe, or maybe not. But that timeline is after the 10yrs you set and to which I was replying, and I used what I believe to be a very reasonable 5p/kWh, when I'm actually earning 15p/kWh.]

There are a whole bunch of unknowns that make any comparative calculations fraught with difficulty and effectively meaningless. Interest rates could be zero again for the next decade (unlikely, but that's what they said in 2007/08) making any return from solar highly attractive. Energy/Electricity prices could spike (like with the Ukraine war) or fall dramatically (like when demand dropped during Covid) and as you say export prices could vary anywhere between a premium to the cost of electricity down to near zero.

15 years ago, when I only had a small amount of savings to my name, I resisted the temptation to invest it all in a FiT paying solar install (probably a bad decision with hindsight). Now I have significantly more capital to invest, I see solar as part of a diversified set of investments. I don't have all my eggs in this particular basket, but if electricity prices were to suddenly spike again to uncomfortable levels, I have significant mitigation through being able to generate as much as I use per year (albeit not when I actually need to use it).

EricMears

NedS said:

Martyn1981 said:

Newbie_John said:

Martyn1981 said:
(1) Not sure that's right, you seem to be excluding any value of / from the PV after the 10yrs.

(2) So, during the 10yrs, let's say you generate 7,000kWh pa, consume 3,000 displacing day rate leccy at 20p/kWh, that's £600pa, plus export 4,000 at 5p/kWh, adds another £200, taking us to £800. So that's much higher than your £280 figure. [I think those leccy rates are reasonable to low.]

(1) No, I just trying to make it clear that it's an investment where you put £7000 and you will start making some pounds after minimum 10 years. Imagine a saving account where you put £7000 and after 10 years you have £7000 and then you will be getting 5% a year, this sounds bad.

(2) It's all really down to numbers, as with any business I try to take realistic/pesimistic point of view before putting a lot of money into something and then regret. 
A: generation - this is probably the most reliable based on number of panels
B: consumption - 3000kWh at 20p rate - if sun is out you can run dishwasher during the day for free, but without panels you could be on one of the TOU tarrifs with cheap time slots like 6p at night - and run dishwasher then. So what's the actual saving here? 6p? We know the price in July will drop from 27p to 25 but what will it be in 2035?
C: export - another tricky one, fine now but I will give you example from Poland where solar market became oversaturated - on a sunny summer day when the generation is too high - people simply get switched off and electricity is not being purchased from them. Will this happen in UK in 10-20 years? It's a possibility.
Savings, yes similar story here, can go down to 0% but some of the funds Bluefield solar / Next energy solar / octopus renewables can continue paying diivdends of 10% for that time..

All in all, it's an investment - you can make it work - but it's not guaranteed.
 

But you don't wait 10yrs to make any money, you make money in year one, just like the interest you make in year one on the cash investment. If you like, depreciate the PV asset over 20yrs at £350pa, and you make a profit in year one of £450. You could then compare that to your investment if you like and deduct a further £280pa as cost of capital, but you still end up £170pa better off.

Whether the £7k is in a savings account, or in PV assets, it's still invested, and both make money in year one. Your calculations immediately depreciate the PV investment by 100%, which is not the correct approach.

It may not be the right investment for you, or others, but the calculations need to be the same on both sides, and you seem to keep missing or misrepresenting the PV side.

[With regard to your suggestion that export payments could be zero at times in 10-20yrs, yes maybe, or maybe not. But that timeline is after the 10yrs you set and to which I was replying, and I used what I believe to be a very reasonable 5p/kWh, when I'm actually earning 15p/kWh.]

There are a whole bunch of unknowns that make any comparative calculations fraught with difficulty and effectively meaningless. Interest rates could be zero again for the next decade (unlikely, but that's what they said in 2007/08) making any return from solar highly attractive. Energy/Electricity prices could spike (like with the Ukraine war) or fall dramatically (like when demand dropped during Covid) and as you say export prices could vary anywhere between a premium to the cost of electricity down to near zero.

15 years ago, when I only had a small amount of savings to my name, I resisted the temptation to invest it all in a FiT paying solar install (probably a bad decision with hindsight). Now I have significantly more capital to invest, I see solar as part of a diversified set of investments. I don't have all my eggs in this particular basket, but if electricity prices were to suddenly spike again to uncomfortable levels, I have significant mitigation through being able to generate as much as I use per year (albeit not when I actually need to use it).

14 years ago when we had reasonable savings,  we drew out £12,500 and put 4kWp on the roof.  The generous FIT scheme that had tempted us returned the cost price in less than 7 years and we've carried on benefitting ever since and will do for the next 11 years. Currently earning approx three times as much per year as our imported electricity bill.

But even if we'd had no savings,  I would have considered applying for an additional advance on our mortgage which would have cost around 7% interest on the loan but gained 12% from the FIT scheme.  Search back through these columns and I'm sure you'll find me recommending that approach to others

Martyn1981

NedS said:

Martyn1981 said:

Newbie_John said:

Martyn1981 said:
(1) Not sure that's right, you seem to be excluding any value of / from the PV after the 10yrs.

(2) So, during the 10yrs, let's say you generate 7,000kWh pa, consume 3,000 displacing day rate leccy at 20p/kWh, that's £600pa, plus export 4,000 at 5p/kWh, adds another £200, taking us to £800. So that's much higher than your £280 figure. [I think those leccy rates are reasonable to low.]

(1) No, I just trying to make it clear that it's an investment where you put £7000 and you will start making some pounds after minimum 10 years. Imagine a saving account where you put £7000 and after 10 years you have £7000 and then you will be getting 5% a year, this sounds bad.

(2) It's all really down to numbers, as with any business I try to take realistic/pesimistic point of view before putting a lot of money into something and then regret. 
A: generation - this is probably the most reliable based on number of panels
B: consumption - 3000kWh at 20p rate - if sun is out you can run dishwasher during the day for free, but without panels you could be on one of the TOU tarrifs with cheap time slots like 6p at night - and run dishwasher then. So what's the actual saving here? 6p? We know the price in July will drop from 27p to 25 but what will it be in 2035?
C: export - another tricky one, fine now but I will give you example from Poland where solar market became oversaturated - on a sunny summer day when the generation is too high - people simply get switched off and electricity is not being purchased from them. Will this happen in UK in 10-20 years? It's a possibility.
Savings, yes similar story here, can go down to 0% but some of the funds Bluefield solar / Next energy solar / octopus renewables can continue paying diivdends of 10% for that time..

All in all, it's an investment - you can make it work - but it's not guaranteed.
 

But you don't wait 10yrs to make any money, you make money in year one, just like the interest you make in year one on the cash investment. If you like, depreciate the PV asset over 20yrs at £350pa, and you make a profit in year one of £450. You could then compare that to your investment if you like and deduct a further £280pa as cost of capital, but you still end up £170pa better off.

Whether the £7k is in a savings account, or in PV assets, it's still invested, and both make money in year one. Your calculations immediately depreciate the PV investment by 100%, which is not the correct approach.

It may not be the right investment for you, or others, but the calculations need to be the same on both sides, and you seem to keep missing or misrepresenting the PV side.

[With regard to your suggestion that export payments could be zero at times in 10-20yrs, yes maybe, or maybe not. But that timeline is after the 10yrs you set and to which I was replying, and I used what I believe to be a very reasonable 5p/kWh, when I'm actually earning 15p/kWh.]

There are a whole bunch of unknowns that make any comparative calculations fraught with difficulty and effectively meaningless. Interest rates could be zero again for the next decade (unlikely, but that's what they said in 2007/08) making any return from solar highly attractive. Energy/Electricity prices could spike (like with the Ukraine war) or fall dramatically (like when demand dropped during Covid) and as you say export prices could vary anywhere between a premium to the cost of electricity down to near zero.

15 years ago, when I only had a small amount of savings to my name, I resisted the temptation to invest it all in a FiT paying solar install (probably a bad decision with hindsight). Now I have significantly more capital to invest, I see solar as part of a diversified set of investments. I don't have all my eggs in this particular basket, but if electricity prices were to suddenly spike again to uncomfortable levels, I have significant mitigation through being able to generate as much as I use per year (albeit not when I actually need to use it).

Yes, I suspect not going the FiT route was  a bad decision, but only in hindsight. At the time it appeared far more risky, with low SAF estimates for generation (much lower than what we actually get), high annual degradation of perhaps 2% expected (instead we've seen almost none), inverters costing twice as much then, and expected to last 5yrs maybe 10 (now they are 'cheap' and the UK seems pretty gentle on them), and just generally assumed maintenance costs, cleaning and so on. Turned out far better than I expected.

Plus of course there is the enjoyment of playing around, and seeing what you can do with your own ickle power station. As I mentioned to you on another thread, I'm now in the odd situation that my annual energy bill is roughly equal to my annual export payments. And that's all leccy, heating, DHW, cooking and car fueling (BEV charging). [This does not include FiT receipts, which are additional.]


No idea if this is useful or relevant to anyone crunching numbers, or speculating on where things are going, but my sister & BiL's residence is also their place of work, so has a commercial electricity tariff. They pay 17p/kWh import and receive 6p/kWh for export.

QrizB

EricMears said:

Search back through these columns and I'm sure you'll find me recommending that approach to others

Indeed you were! I found several search results but here's one:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/51124045/#Comment_51124045

phill2-0-0-3

prowla said:

A "mind field" - maybe you're over thinking it?

Possibly 

My concern is the amount of different company's and which ones to use ? 

The difference in panels and brands etc . 

Which one to go with .

phill2-0-0-3

These are the two quotes I have received the rear of my property has 3 seperate pitches.

I have enquired if I could have 4 panels on the rear and then the front done which is more cost efficient 

Does this seem a fair price ? 

Thanks 

Screwdriva

Without knowing more about your roof (actual images) and the brands of panels/ inverter/ battery on offer, it's impossible to say. (I'm willing to bet the panels and inverter/ battery will be cheap, Chinese brands)

Martyn1981

prowla said:

A "mind field" - maybe you're over thinking it?

I'd assumed it was deliberate, a great play on words, and planned to steal it alongside my personal approach - "just give me 5 minutes to overthink this'.