Annihilation or Abundance ?

Cobbler_tone

DoublePolaroid said:

0% and 100% respectively.

I’m not wrong by a factor of 10, 100 or any other number. 

Because I didn’t opt-out of my DB 😉 

I read the stats on the Pension Regulator site with interest.

Last year there were 5,190 DB schemes in existence in the private sector. Of those only 4% (around 200) are still active for all. 19% closed to new members, 73% closed to future accruals (my position - the new member rule was in during 2011) and 4% winding up.
If you start a new job in the private sector today and able to join a DB scheme then you are in a really small minority. 

Qyburn

I pulled the trigger on a calculation that showed 95% chance of success, success being not running out of money by age 90.  Now a few years on it's looking, with hindsight, absurdly pessimistic.  Mainly due to above inflation investment returns, even with the Trump Slump.  

On the other hand the same model run a year earlier would have probably come back as very high risk with one more year to cover before SP or DB kicked in, one year less savings and contributions and one year less growth.

optoutDB

Just remembered this post!  Yes it was a late night thought and it looks like I was too vague.

The topic on my mind was ASI (artificial super-intelligence). 

If you thought there was 20% probability that humanity will be destroyed in 10years, how does that change your retirement planning? 

Similar for abundance.

What I'm 90% sure of is that the next 20years will be nothing like any previous 20year period. 

SouthCoastBoy

optoutDB said:

Just remembered this post!  Yes it was a late night thought and it looks like I was too vague.

The topic on my mind was ASI (artificial super-intelligence). 

If you thought there was 20% probability that humanity will be destroyed in 10years, how does that change your retirement planning? 

Similar for abundance.

What I'm 90% sure of is that the next 20years will be nothing like any previous 20year period. 

If only a 20% chance of humanity being destroyed in 10 years, probably wouldn't change my retirement planning at all, as there is an 80% chance it wont be. If there was a 50% chance then maybe I would consider changing my plans, but still I think unlikely for me.

I would change the 90% to 100%, no 20 years are going to be the same

LHW99

If there's any chance of humanity being destroyed in 10 years, why change the plan?

If it happens - you (no-one) will be around to worry

If it doesn't - the plan rules..

optoutDB

SouthCoastBoy said:

I would change the 90% to 100%, no 20 years are going to be the same

I said "nothing like" which is very different to "not the same"

optoutDB

LHW99 said:

If there's any chance of humanity being destroyed in 10 years, why change the plan?

I'm aiming for maximum utility from my resources. So if I think 20% chance of destruction in under 10years (which I do, more or less)  I will pull my spending profile closer (leftward).

Same for abundance, if we are all going to be rich (in material goods)  then the utility of saved cash reduces.

michaels

We all already have a big mortality unknown so I guess this is about shifted odds rather completely new problems if considered holistically.
Plus we are also potentially getting close to prepper territory?

optoutDB

michaels said:

We all already have a big mortality unknown so I guess this is about shifted odds rather completely new problems if considered holistically.
Plus we are also potentially getting close to prepper territory?

Yep.  Maybe the traditional curve is pretty standard gaussian like, eg I am expecting 20 more years of life with SD of 6 years, and historic variance in stock market returns.  But now I'm adding in a big increase in the likelihood of death or big wealth gains in the next 10 years.

I could become a prepper, I think the minimum for that is a light aircraft and a cabin in the wilds of Alaska. That's something I need to look into, ideally you'd want to create a community of 20 to 30 families and go into the wilderness each year to build up your village. Could be fun even if you don't ever need to flee there.

cloud_dog

I tend not to worry about things I cannot control 🤔