"Locking in" SIPP gains - cash or short term sterling MMF?

Baldytyke88

QrizB said:

I'm expecting to be invested for another 30-40 years. This is just another bump in the road.

"While GDP dropping in a single quarter doesn't mean the U.S. economy has entered a recession, it's undoubtedly a step in that direction. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 45% in April, up from 22% in January."

It's a matter of how that affects the rest of the world, Trump is a loose cannon and he could do anything, the markets don't like uncertainty.

2nd_time_buyer

Back in November, I moved my whole pension out of a global tracker and into cash. Partly because I don’t really need big growth above inflation, but also because I’ve started questioning whether global trackers still do what they’re supposed to — spread risk.

They’re massively weighted towards the US now, especially big tech. A lot of those stocks are trading on hype and future promises. The “Magnificent Seven” seem priced as if they already own their industries outright.

With so much money flowing into passive funds — especially the S&P 500 — I think a lot of investors have stopped paying attention to fundamentals. Many of them have never lived through a proper crash. Combine that with social media hyping meme stocks, and it all feels like a bit of a mess.

I use Tesla as a kind of market indicator as I have a good understanding of the industry and the tech. As a car company, I think it’s wildly overvalued — easily by 10x. Sales and profits are falling, but the share price still leans heavily on future bets: robotaxis, full self-driving, and robots. I’m pretty skeptical. Their self-driving approach (just cameras, no LiDAR) seems flawed to me. Even if it works, LiDAR’s getting cheaper, so their “edge” might disappear. I wouldn’t be surprised if China gets there first — and cheaper. Then there’s the whole robot angle. Do people actually want them? And if they do, is Tesla really ahead of the pack? Add in Elon Musk’s "quirky" public image, and the whole thing starts to feel a bit ridiculous. My prediction is that they will move towards military applications to take advantage of their political connections.

So for now, I’m on the sidelines but I’m leaning toward a tracker that excludes US stocks, and keeping a bigger chunk in cash and bonds. 

Cobbler_tone

Nothing wrong with holding some gold. As a long term investment it’s pretty consistent (with the usual blips) and normally does well when the markets wobble. A bit like my company shares, solid steady growth, albeit there’s always a Kodak. 

Not something for a quick return though. Must admit not something I have ever had (apart from a £250 ring I weighed in!) but wish I had, it’s far sexier!