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Timeline Software broken or model changed?
Pat38493
Posts: 3,474 Forumite
I noticed that since yesterday, the probability of success on a lot of my Timeline scenarios has gone down by 10-12% even though I didn't change any of the inputs.
I am not sure if something has broken there, or whether they have changed the modelling on purpose. I haven't had time to look in detail but it looks to me like they might have changed the modelling of income flows so that in periods of deflation (e.g. 1920s), DB pensions go down when there is deflation. Previously you could see strange results where the real terms value of DB and SP went up significantly due to deflationary periods early in the 20th century.
If they have done this, I guess arguably it's more realistic, given that I doubt inflation linked DB pensions really existed back then.
It could also be that there is a bug in the modelling that's happened - I guess we will find out in the next days.
I am not sure if something has broken there, or whether they have changed the modelling on purpose. I haven't had time to look in detail but it looks to me like they might have changed the modelling of income flows so that in periods of deflation (e.g. 1920s), DB pensions go down when there is deflation. Previously you could see strange results where the real terms value of DB and SP went up significantly due to deflationary periods early in the 20th century.
If they have done this, I guess arguably it's more realistic, given that I doubt inflation linked DB pensions really existed back then.
It could also be that there is a bug in the modelling that's happened - I guess we will find out in the next days.
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