Every month I buy into VWRP (accumulating) index fund at all time highs and I'm sick of it.

[Deleted User]

For the last 2 years I've been pound cost averaging every month into this index fund for long term investing (20 - 25) year time frame, it's for my retirement. 

When I bought my first shares the price was at all time highs but I didn't really care because it's long term and I was under the impression that with cost averaging, sometimes I'd buy high, sometimes I'd buy low and sometimes I'd be in the middle. 

Almost every single month I've bought the market, it's been at a new all time high, I think I may have caught a few -1% dips along the way but essentially I've been buying at the absolute peak every month for 2 years now and I'm absolutely sick to death of it. 

Yes I'm up 22% which is great but I'm always paying more and more every time I buy and because I'm investing for the long haul I would like to actually buy low sometimes... Obviously I'm not going to try and time the market because that's a fools game but holy cow can a man get at least one -10 or -15% pullback so when I buy for that month I actually get a decently low price? 

It's insane... I'm due to buy again tomorrow as it's payday and yet again the market is up another 3% to a record high. 

If I was close to retiring then I'd be thrilled but since I'm in the mass accumulation phase with 20 years to go I want to be buying low if I can to maximise the profit when the market goes up but it's just nonstop every month +1%

I know I sound like a spoiled kid, I mean who can complain about making profit? But I do want to see at least ONE -15% six month to one year bear market in my journey so I can actually get the opportunity to you know, get the average instead or the highs every single month!

Now with the orange man in power I'm guessing we're going to go on another 30% bull run this year so I'll be paying even more every month for my shares. Yes I'm happy I'm making money but I'd be much happier if I actually got the chance to lower my average instead of increasing it every damn month. 

On-the-coast

How much (less) happier would you be if you bought at a new low each month?

[Deleted User]

On-the-coast said:

How much (less) happier would you be if you bought at a new low each month?

That's extremely unlikely to happen though. There's been a lot of bear markets and the average length of a bear market is about 10 months. I'm in for 20 - 25 years so even a 5 year bear market would be absolutely fine for me. 

In fact a 5 year bear market would be glorious because I'd be buying nice and low and that would maximise my profits when the market goes back up. Like I said if I was close to retiring then a bear market would NOT be welcome but since I'm still 20 years away I really really want a bear market.

However I'm not arrogant enough to think I can time it so I will continue buying every month as I have been, even if it turns my stomach buying at the highs every singe month. 

InvesterJones

Short term noise doesn't make a meaningful difference. The fact you're encountering a new all time high means all your previous investments have made money! In a rising market, you'll get all time highs most of the time

EthicsGradient

You either want to time the market or you don't. If it was exactly 2 years ago you started, then you timed the starting point well - down about 6% (including dividends) from a year before, and it took until Nov 23 to get back to the Nov 21 price. And the past year has been great.

If you believe in the theory of regular investing and not (over-)reacting to market changes, you've had a perfect 2 years. So much so that it's almost humblebragging. If you don't really believe in that, and do think an investor should sometimes decide markets are badly priced, then sell some VWRP instead, and pick something more specialised, or cash, to back your hunch.

eskbanker

[Deleted User] said:

I'm absolutely sick to death of it

[...]

It's insane...

[...]

If I was close to retiring then I'd be thrilled

[Deleted User] said:
it turns my stomach buying at the highs every singe month. 

It's always best not to be too emotional about investing, and trust your head rather than your heart!

Nobody can buy low and sell high sustainably, so if you're committed to a drip-feed strategy then just roll with it, short term movements will be irrelevant blips by the time you reach the end....

[Deleted User]

eskbanker said:

[Deleted User] said:

I'm absolutely sick to death of it

[...]

It's insane...

[...]

If I was close to retiring then I'd be thrilled

[Deleted User] said:
it turns my stomach buying at the highs every singe month. 

It's always best not to be too emotional about investing, and trust your head rather than your heart!

Nobody can buy low and sell high sustainably, so if you're committed to a drip-feed strategy then just roll with it, short term movements will be irrelevant blips by the time you reach the end....

I'm not trying to buy low and sell high, I'm not selling until I retire and even then I'll only sell about 4% each month. But it would make me feel good if the market gave me the chance to accumulate a ton of shares at a -15% discount or something.

Essentially what I'm "worried" about is buying at all time highs for 20 years and then the market tanks 30% just when I'm close to retiring when I have stopped buying, rather than the market tanking now when I have money to buy.

Maybe I'll get lucky and there will be a -20% drop before I get to the half way mark.

InvesterJones

[Deleted User] said:

Essentially what I'm "worried" about is buying at all time highs for 20 years and then the market tanks 30% just when I'm close to retiring when I have stopped buying, rather than the market tanking now when I have money to buy.

AKA 'sequencing risk'. There are strategies for that, like switching to bonds leading up to retirement then buying equities again after.

mebu60

Why would you want to wipe out the entirety of your two year's excellent growth just to buy low one month? It could be a long time before your holding recovers. Keep drip feeding, stop obsessing month-to-month, focus on the big picture. 

eskbanker

[Deleted User] said:
Essentially what I'm "worried" about is buying at all time highs for 20 years and then the market tanks 30% just when I'm close to retiring when I have stopped buying, rather than the market tanking now when I have money to buy.

People naturally invest because the long term price trend is upwards, so it's quite common for investments to be at 'all time highs', i.e. that's not some unusual temporary oddity, it's what's expected.  As above, you'd need a different strategy when approaching the end of the timeframe, as decumulation shouldn't be treated in the same way as the accumulation phase....

thunderroad88

I think over 20 years you’ll get your wish to buy below all time highs quite a lot…as a recently retired but a few years from actually needing to drawdown from investments I hope you never get your wish for a 15-20% drop, but I have dry powder ready should it happen. Why don’t you put some cash aside and do a little top up when your funds do drop 3-4%, as they will do that more often than one big drop? That’s not really timing the market and you might feel better about getting some small wins