Timeline Planning question

Pat38493

For anyone who is an expert at Timeline software, I'm wondering how it's possible to see the below information.  How can my chance of running out of money and being alive be higher at a younger age, than at age 100?

Does it mean - if my plan survives will age 90, then the chance of it running out between 80 and 90 is lower? (the plan is pretty front loaded in withdrawals in the first 10 years).

(I'm also glad that my chance of survival till 60 is 100% - I'm tempted to jump off a building to test this, but I guess it's rounded!).

dunstonh

Check the end dates on your spending inputs.  Have you used an assumption on a draw that expires in a given year rather than ongoing.    Do you have recurring add hoc lump sums?  e.g. car every x years?

Pat38493

dunstonh said:

Check the end dates on your spending inputs.  Have you used an assumption on a draw that expires in a given year rather than ongoing.    Do you have recurring add hoc lump sums?  e.g. car every x years?

General spending covers all the years to the end of the plan with 2 levels.

I have a bunch of one off items - the last one to finish is when I will be 69.

But even so logically I would think that if I have say a 13% of running out of money by age 80, the chance of running out of money after that must be either 13% or more than  13%, even if the spending stopped at that time?

I was wondering if it’s somehow like the ONS death stats where counterintuitively, if you are already 60 your chance of living to 80 is higher than if you are currently 40 or suchlike.

Also - is there any kind of year end process for Timeline?  It seems like on January 1st, all the reports change to the new year, but the inputs that have a starting date before the current year still retain the date of the that prior year, but don’t seem to be counted anymore in the results.  I changed these manually.  I also found a weird thing where I had to delete both our state pensions and re-create them otherwise it seemed to be giving strange results even though the inputs still looked correct.

dunstonh

I have a bunch of one off items - the last one to finish is when I will be 69.

That will have an impact on the early figures.

I was wondering if it’s somehow like the ONS death stats where counterintuitively, if you are already 60 your chance of living to 80 is higher than if you are currently 40 or suchlike.

I wondered if it was timescale.  e.g. at 60 they are modelling 40 year slices.  At 70, they are modelling 30 year slices.   At 80 they are modelling 20 year slices.       The 100 odd years they model over will have more 20 year slices than 30 or 40 year slices.   So, they could impact on the success rate for each age.

Also - is there any kind of year end process for Timeline?  It seems like on January 1st, all the reports change to the new year, but the inputs that have a starting date before the current year still retain the date of the that prior year, but don’t seem to be counted anymore in the results.  I changed these manually.  I also found a weird thing where I had to delete both our state pensions and re-create them otherwise it seemed to be giving strange results even though the inputs still looked correct.

It has quirks.   They don't seem to align the chart and the charting on 1st January.  So, you often have to adjust the age on existing plans or wait until later in the month for it to correct.

I have used many cashflow modellers to test them and they all have quirks.  Timelines year/age mix is one of theirs.

Pat38493

dunstonh said:

I have a bunch of one off items - the last one to finish is when I will be 69.

That will have an impact on the early figures.

I was wondering if it’s somehow like the ONS death stats where counterintuitively, if you are already 60 your chance of living to 80 is higher than if you are currently 40 or suchlike.

I wondered if it was timescale.  e.g. at 60 they are modelling 40 year slices.  At 70, they are modelling 30 year slices.   At 80 they are modelling 20 year slices.       The 100 odd years they model over will have more 20 year slices than 30 or 40 year slices.   So, they could impact on the success rate for each age.

Also - is there any kind of year end process for Timeline?  It seems like on January 1st, all the reports change to the new year, but the inputs that have a starting date before the current year still retain the date of the that prior year, but don’t seem to be counted anymore in the results.  I changed these manually.  I also found a weird thing where I had to delete both our state pensions and re-create them otherwise it seemed to be giving strange results even though the inputs still looked correct.

It has quirks.   They don't seem to align the chart and the charting on 1st January.  So, you often have to adjust the age on existing plans or wait until later in the month for it to correct.

I have used many cashflow modellers to test them and they all have quirks.  Timelines year/age mix is one of theirs.

Thanks - yes another weird quick I noticed is that (at least if you are reaching the age you can draw pensions),  it shows the age on 1st January as the beginning of the current plan year, and it will not draw on any pensions until the year when you were 55 in Jan 1st.  If your birthday is early in the year this is a bit of an issue - I guess as you say you have to force the birth date to make yourself already 55 on that year which is a bit of a strange quirk.