When do the State Pension forecasts get updated?

Qyburn

I'm itching to draw up next year's cash flow model, but my SP will kick in part year so ideally I would want that figure. My ever-loving has a small public sector DB which I think indexes with CPI as it went up by 10.1% last April so I can estimate that at 5% as a rough guess.

Dazed_and_C0nfused

The State Pension increases DWP expect to use have now been published and a public sector DB pension should increase by 6.8%.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/proposed-benefit-and-pension-rates-2024-to-2025/proposed-benefit-and-pension-rates-2024-to-2025

Qyburn

Dazed_and_C0nfused said:

The State Pension increases DWP expect to use have now been published and a public sector DB pension should increase by 6.8%.

Cheers. I thought there was still some chance that the Government would choose 7.8% ex-bonus instead of 8.5%, after all that web page say "proposed".

 Anyway I have some SERPS so if I read that correctly part of my SP will increase by 6.7%.

(([2023 forecast] - [2023 NSP]) x 1.067) + [2024 NSP]

Dazed_and_C0nfused

Qyburn said:

Dazed_and_C0nfused said:

The State Pension increases DWP expect to use have now been published and a public sector DB pension should increase by 6.8%.

Cheers. I thought there was still some chance that the Government would choose 7.8% ex-bonus instead of 8.5%, after all that web page say "proposed".

 Anyway I have some SERPS so if I read that correctly part of my SP will increase by 6.7%.

(([2023 forecast] - [2023 NSP]) x 1.067) + [2024 NSP]

You're right it is 6.7%, I was going off (poor) memory 😞

pinnks

Qyburn said:

Dazed_and_C0nfused said:

The State Pension increases DWP expect to use have now been published and a public sector DB pension should increase by 6.8%.

Cheers. I thought there was still some chance that the Government would choose 7.8% ex-bonus instead of 8.5%, after all that web page say "proposed".

 Anyway I have some SERPS so if I read that correctly part of my SP will increase by 6.7%.

(([2023 forecast] - [2023 NSP]) x 1.067) + [2024 NSP]

The DB pension should also increase by CPI, so 6.7%

xylophone

Anyway I have some SERPS 

Do you mean that you have a "protected payment"?

Qyburn

xylophone said:

Anyway I have some SERPS 

Do you mean that you have a "protected payment"?

I don't know what it's called. Just that my SP forecast is higher than NSP. 

Could this actually comprise Basic SP plus "increment" (or "additional")? Meaning less of it goes up by 8.5% and more by 6.7%.

Dazed_and_C0nfused

Qyburn said:

xylophone said:

Anyway I have some SERPS 

Do you mean that you have a "protected payment"?

I don't know what it's called. Just that my SP forecast is higher than NSP. 

Could this actually comprise Basic SP plus "increment" (or "additional")? Meaning less of it goes up by 8.5% and more by 6.7%.

As I understand it the first £203.85 will be replaced with £221.20 (fraction over 8.5% increase due to DWP rounding) and the excess above £203.85 will be increased by 6.7%.

xylophone

I don't know what it's called. Just that my SP forecast is higher than NSP. 

This indicates that your "starting amount" for New State Pension (at 6/4/16) was higher than £156.65  (full NSP)- the amount by which it was higher was your "protected payment".

Since then, the full NSP amount has increased under the "triple (double) lock" and the protected payment by CPI.

Therefore the amount of your SP currently equal to £203.85 will increase to £221.20 (8.5% increase) and your PP by 6.7%.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/proposed-benefit-and-pension-rates-2024-to-2025/proposed-benefit-and-pension-rates-2024-to-2025

jamesd

Yes, the protected amount is what was previously called additional state pension and it arose because of the earnings-related SERPS then S2P contributions.

pinnks

jamesd said:

Yes, the protected amount is what was previously called additional state pension and it arose because of the earnings-related SERPS then S2P contributions.

It's not quite a straight analogy.  A protected payment is the falling out of the calculation of your starting amount for the new state pension in 2016.  So, one could have a full basic pension plus (in today's terms) an additional £40 of SERPS etc, taking them to £196 per week and thus have no protected payment.  If, however, the SERPS etc element was £70, taking them to £226, then the excess over £203.85 is a protected protected payment.