Help needed on new mortgage rate/house not selling and separation

Sarah1Mitty2

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

So what you meant to say was "at some indeterminate point in the future, prices might, in some areas, have dropped by some amount which might be somewhere near 20%"

That's a bit different than "in many areas prices have dropped by now"

  No, I meant to say what I said, there is no real price discovery in a stalled market with collapsed sales volumes and mortgage approvals, the only guide the OP can follow is - Are people viewing? When people are viewing the asking price is in the correct ballpark, although you need to be prepared for down-valuations, last minute reductions citing "market conditions" etc.

If there is "no real price discovery" then you have no evidence for "prices have dropped", let alone "dropped by more than 20%".  The best you can say is "prices might have dropped".

 Ok, In my Opinion.....achievable prices in many areas have dropped by more than 20% as soon as rates started heading for 5% and the talk moved to even higher rates for longer, there is nothing to stop prices going back to similar levels to the last time rates were this high (still historically very low) as it is obvious that props to the market are not being deployed for fear of bond market reaction. My advice to the OP would be to get the house on the market at a price that clears the debt and hope that someone sees that as a bargain.

February 2008 - there have been 15 years of population increase, inflation and lack of housebuilding since then.

No, we didn`t have inflation during those 15 years, that is why rates were kept far too low for too long leading to the current mess. The other things you mention don`t seem to have stopped demand for property (as shown by sales and mortgage approvals) dropping sharply, not sure they make all that much difference TBH because as people enter the country people also unfortunately pass away, and people also leave the country! Unfortunately people who believed the "Supply and Demand" arguments and rushed into mortgage debt on that basis were led along the wrong path which is why my advice to the OP is to try to clear the debt and start again.

CSI_Yorkshire

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

So what you meant to say was "at some indeterminate point in the future, prices might, in some areas, have dropped by some amount which might be somewhere near 20%"

That's a bit different than "in many areas prices have dropped by now"

  No, I meant to say what I said, there is no real price discovery in a stalled market with collapsed sales volumes and mortgage approvals, the only guide the OP can follow is - Are people viewing? When people are viewing the asking price is in the correct ballpark, although you need to be prepared for down-valuations, last minute reductions citing "market conditions" etc.

If there is "no real price discovery" then you have no evidence for "prices have dropped", let alone "dropped by more than 20%".  The best you can say is "prices might have dropped".

 Ok, In my Opinion.....achievable prices in many areas have dropped by more than 20% as soon as rates started heading for 5% and the talk moved to even higher rates for longer, there is nothing to stop prices going back to similar levels to the last time rates were this high (still historically very low) as it is obvious that props to the market are not being deployed for fear of bond market reaction. My advice to the OP would be to get the house on the market at a price that clears the debt and hope that someone sees that as a bargain.

February 2008 - there have been 15 years of population increase, inflation and lack of housebuilding since then.

No, we didn`t have inflation during those 15 years, that is why rates were kept far too low for too long leading to the current mess. The other things you mention don`t seem to have stopped demand for property (as shown by sales and mortgage approvals) dropping sharply, not sure they make all that much difference TBH because as people enter the country people also unfortunately pass away, and people also leave the country! Unfortunately people who believed the "Supply and Demand" arguments and rushed into mortgage debt on that basis were led along the wrong path which is why my advice to the OP is to try to clear the debt and start again.

We had inflation for all but 6 months of that period.



Slightly old, but population increased by nearly half a million people each year in 2008-2014, after accounting for all the effects you state.  It's unlikely that his trend has suddenly turned negative, as other sources show growth through to 2021 at least and the last time the population shrank was the first half of the 1940s.

Any other easily-disprovable statements you would like to make in response?

Sarah1Mitty2

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

So what you meant to say was "at some indeterminate point in the future, prices might, in some areas, have dropped by some amount which might be somewhere near 20%"

That's a bit different than "in many areas prices have dropped by now"

  No, I meant to say what I said, there is no real price discovery in a stalled market with collapsed sales volumes and mortgage approvals, the only guide the OP can follow is - Are people viewing? When people are viewing the asking price is in the correct ballpark, although you need to be prepared for down-valuations, last minute reductions citing "market conditions" etc.

If there is "no real price discovery" then you have no evidence for "prices have dropped", let alone "dropped by more than 20%".  The best you can say is "prices might have dropped".

 Ok, In my Opinion.....achievable prices in many areas have dropped by more than 20% as soon as rates started heading for 5% and the talk moved to even higher rates for longer, there is nothing to stop prices going back to similar levels to the last time rates were this high (still historically very low) as it is obvious that props to the market are not being deployed for fear of bond market reaction. My advice to the OP would be to get the house on the market at a price that clears the debt and hope that someone sees that as a bargain.

February 2008 - there have been 15 years of population increase, inflation and lack of housebuilding since then.

No, we didn`t have inflation during those 15 years, that is why rates were kept far too low for too long leading to the current mess. The other things you mention don`t seem to have stopped demand for property (as shown by sales and mortgage approvals) dropping sharply, not sure they make all that much difference TBH because as people enter the country people also unfortunately pass away, and people also leave the country! Unfortunately people who believed the "Supply and Demand" arguments and rushed into mortgage debt on that basis were led along the wrong path which is why my advice to the OP is to try to clear the debt and start again.

We had inflation for all but 6 months of that period.



Slightly old, but population increased by nearly half a million people each year in 2008-2014, after accounting for all the effects you state.  It's unlikely that his trend has suddenly turned negative, as other sources show growth through to 2021 at least and the last time the population shrank was the first half of the 1940s.

Any other easily-disprovable statements you would like to make in response?

 Can you post up the inflation from May`21 to now so we can have a look, and can you explain why with all those people coming into the country the housing market still required emergency rates to function? What you have posted kind of proves my point that it is mortgage rates that decide whether a house sells and not "population". You have disproved nothing and are not offering any advice to the OP, what is your advice to the OP?

CSI_Yorkshire

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

So what you meant to say was "at some indeterminate point in the future, prices might, in some areas, have dropped by some amount which might be somewhere near 20%"

That's a bit different than "in many areas prices have dropped by now"

  No, I meant to say what I said, there is no real price discovery in a stalled market with collapsed sales volumes and mortgage approvals, the only guide the OP can follow is - Are people viewing? When people are viewing the asking price is in the correct ballpark, although you need to be prepared for down-valuations, last minute reductions citing "market conditions" etc.

If there is "no real price discovery" then you have no evidence for "prices have dropped", let alone "dropped by more than 20%".  The best you can say is "prices might have dropped".

 Ok, In my Opinion.....achievable prices in many areas have dropped by more than 20% as soon as rates started heading for 5% and the talk moved to even higher rates for longer, there is nothing to stop prices going back to similar levels to the last time rates were this high (still historically very low) as it is obvious that props to the market are not being deployed for fear of bond market reaction. My advice to the OP would be to get the house on the market at a price that clears the debt and hope that someone sees that as a bargain.

February 2008 - there have been 15 years of population increase, inflation and lack of housebuilding since then.

No, we didn`t have inflation during those 15 years, that is why rates were kept far too low for too long leading to the current mess. The other things you mention don`t seem to have stopped demand for property (as shown by sales and mortgage approvals) dropping sharply, not sure they make all that much difference TBH because as people enter the country people also unfortunately pass away, and people also leave the country! Unfortunately people who believed the "Supply and Demand" arguments and rushed into mortgage debt on that basis were led along the wrong path which is why my advice to the OP is to try to clear the debt and start again.

We had inflation for all but 6 months of that period.



Slightly old, but population increased by nearly half a million people each year in 2008-2014, after accounting for all the effects you state.  It's unlikely that his trend has suddenly turned negative, as other sources show growth through to 2021 at least and the last time the population shrank was the first half of the 1940s.

Any other easily-disprovable statements you would like to make in response?

 Can you post up the inflation from May`21 to now so we can have a look, and can you explain why with all those people coming into the country the housing market still required emergency rates to function? What you have posted kind of proves my point that it is mortgage rates that decide whether a house sells and not "population". You have disproved nothing and are not offering any advice to the OP, what is your advice to the OP?

You stated that there was no inflation in the 15 years between 2008 and 2023.  I have shown you 13 of those 15 years and there was inflation in all of them.  Your statement was false.

As you want the numbers since 2021, here they are (I chose the other graph previously because it included the base rate):

I'm sure you will agree that there was still inflation after 2021, and therefore there was actually inflation in all 15 of the years.

You stated that increasing population could be disregarded for housing demand because people die and leave the country.  There are several million more people in the country now than 2008.  They all need to live somewhere.  Your statement was false.

Misinformation must be called out, regardless of whether I am directly advising the OP or not.  Otherwise they will be making decisions based on false data.

Martico

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

So what you meant to say was "at some indeterminate point in the future, prices might, in some areas, have dropped by some amount which might be somewhere near 20%"

That's a bit different than "in many areas prices have dropped by now"

  No, I meant to say what I said, there is no real price discovery in a stalled market with collapsed sales volumes and mortgage approvals, the only guide the OP can follow is - Are people viewing? When people are viewing the asking price is in the correct ballpark, although you need to be prepared for down-valuations, last minute reductions citing "market conditions" etc.

If there is "no real price discovery" then you have no evidence for "prices have dropped", let alone "dropped by more than 20%".  The best you can say is "prices might have dropped".

[...] there is nothing to stop prices going back to similar levels to the last time rates were this high [...]

I do try my best not to respond, as it's a futile endeavour. But this is bonkers, even by Walter Mitty levels of delusion.

johnhenstock

@Sarah1Mitty2 are you going to respond to my previous post or will you continue to selectively ignore the bits you can't defend?

Sarah1Mitty2

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

So what you meant to say was "at some indeterminate point in the future, prices might, in some areas, have dropped by some amount which might be somewhere near 20%"

That's a bit different than "in many areas prices have dropped by now"

  No, I meant to say what I said, there is no real price discovery in a stalled market with collapsed sales volumes and mortgage approvals, the only guide the OP can follow is - Are people viewing? When people are viewing the asking price is in the correct ballpark, although you need to be prepared for down-valuations, last minute reductions citing "market conditions" etc.

If there is "no real price discovery" then you have no evidence for "prices have dropped", let alone "dropped by more than 20%".  The best you can say is "prices might have dropped".

 Ok, In my Opinion.....achievable prices in many areas have dropped by more than 20% as soon as rates started heading for 5% and the talk moved to even higher rates for longer, there is nothing to stop prices going back to similar levels to the last time rates were this high (still historically very low) as it is obvious that props to the market are not being deployed for fear of bond market reaction. My advice to the OP would be to get the house on the market at a price that clears the debt and hope that someone sees that as a bargain.

February 2008 - there have been 15 years of population increase, inflation and lack of housebuilding since then.

No, we didn`t have inflation during those 15 years, that is why rates were kept far too low for too long leading to the current mess. The other things you mention don`t seem to have stopped demand for property (as shown by sales and mortgage approvals) dropping sharply, not sure they make all that much difference TBH because as people enter the country people also unfortunately pass away, and people also leave the country! Unfortunately people who believed the "Supply and Demand" arguments and rushed into mortgage debt on that basis were led along the wrong path which is why my advice to the OP is to try to clear the debt and start again.

We had inflation for all but 6 months of that period.



Slightly old, but population increased by nearly half a million people each year in 2008-2014, after accounting for all the effects you state.  It's unlikely that his trend has suddenly turned negative, as other sources show growth through to 2021 at least and the last time the population shrank was the first half of the 1940s.

Any other easily-disprovable statements you would like to make in response?

 Can you post up the inflation from May`21 to now so we can have a look, and can you explain why with all those people coming into the country the housing market still required emergency rates to function? What you have posted kind of proves my point that it is mortgage rates that decide whether a house sells and not "population". You have disproved nothing and are not offering any advice to the OP, what is your advice to the OP?

You stated that there was no inflation in the 15 years between 2008 and 2023.  I have shown you 13 of those 15 years and there was inflation in all of them.  Your statement was false.

As you want the numbers since 2021, here they are (I chose the other graph previously because it included the base rate):

I'm sure you will agree that there was still inflation after 2021, and therefore there was actually inflation in all 15 of the years.

You stated that increasing population could be disregarded for housing demand because people die and leave the country.  There are several million more people in the country now than 2008.  They all need to live somewhere.  Your statement was false.

Misinformation must be called out, regardless of whether I am directly advising the OP or not.  Otherwise they will be making decisions based on false data.

"There are several million more people in the country now than 2008.  They all need to live somewhere"

Why am I seeing quotes like this in the media in that case?

"There were just 43,209 house transactions in February, 45pc less than in December 2021, and 37pc lower than the same month last year, according to data from the House Buyer Bureau."

Also according to that article mortgage rates are now higher than during the Truss budget scare, media are strangely quiet on that topic for some reason?

You are not calling out "misinformation" you are trying to square a circle  that makes desire for houses (no one viewing to buy is homeless remember) equal ability to pay for housing, people who can no longer afford the house they wanted to buy just stay put in the property they already live in, all the stats are telling you that now loud and clear?

Sarah1Mitty2

How are you getting on with the sale OP, have you dropped the price or had any viewings yet?

CSI_Yorkshire

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

So what you meant to say was "at some indeterminate point in the future, prices might, in some areas, have dropped by some amount which might be somewhere near 20%"

That's a bit different than "in many areas prices have dropped by now"

  No, I meant to say what I said, there is no real price discovery in a stalled market with collapsed sales volumes and mortgage approvals, the only guide the OP can follow is - Are people viewing? When people are viewing the asking price is in the correct ballpark, although you need to be prepared for down-valuations, last minute reductions citing "market conditions" etc.

If there is "no real price discovery" then you have no evidence for "prices have dropped", let alone "dropped by more than 20%".  The best you can say is "prices might have dropped".

 Ok, In my Opinion.....achievable prices in many areas have dropped by more than 20% as soon as rates started heading for 5% and the talk moved to even higher rates for longer, there is nothing to stop prices going back to similar levels to the last time rates were this high (still historically very low) as it is obvious that props to the market are not being deployed for fear of bond market reaction. My advice to the OP would be to get the house on the market at a price that clears the debt and hope that someone sees that as a bargain.

February 2008 - there have been 15 years of population increase, inflation and lack of housebuilding since then.

No, we didn`t have inflation during those 15 years, that is why rates were kept far too low for too long leading to the current mess. The other things you mention don`t seem to have stopped demand for property (as shown by sales and mortgage approvals) dropping sharply, not sure they make all that much difference TBH because as people enter the country people also unfortunately pass away, and people also leave the country! Unfortunately people who believed the "Supply and Demand" arguments and rushed into mortgage debt on that basis were led along the wrong path which is why my advice to the OP is to try to clear the debt and start again.

We had inflation for all but 6 months of that period.



Slightly old, but population increased by nearly half a million people each year in 2008-2014, after accounting for all the effects you state.  It's unlikely that his trend has suddenly turned negative, as other sources show growth through to 2021 at least and the last time the population shrank was the first half of the 1940s.

Any other easily-disprovable statements you would like to make in response?

 Can you post up the inflation from May`21 to now so we can have a look, and can you explain why with all those people coming into the country the housing market still required emergency rates to function? What you have posted kind of proves my point that it is mortgage rates that decide whether a house sells and not "population". You have disproved nothing and are not offering any advice to the OP, what is your advice to the OP?

You stated that there was no inflation in the 15 years between 2008 and 2023.  I have shown you 13 of those 15 years and there was inflation in all of them.  Your statement was false.

As you want the numbers since 2021, here they are (I chose the other graph previously because it included the base rate):

I'm sure you will agree that there was still inflation after 2021, and therefore there was actually inflation in all 15 of the years.

You stated that increasing population could be disregarded for housing demand because people die and leave the country.  There are several million more people in the country now than 2008.  They all need to live somewhere.  Your statement was false.

Misinformation must be called out, regardless of whether I am directly advising the OP or not.  Otherwise they will be making decisions based on false data.

"There are several million more people in the country now than 2008.  They all need to live somewhere"

Why am I seeing quotes like this in the media in that case?

"There were just 43,209 house transactions in February, 45pc less than in December 2021, and 37pc lower than the same month last year, according to data from the House Buyer Bureau."

Also according to that article mortgage rates are now higher than during the Truss budget scare, media are strangely quiet on that topic for some reason?

You are not calling out "misinformation" you are trying to square a circle  that makes desire for houses (no one viewing to buy is homeless remember) equal ability to pay for housing, people who can no longer afford the house they wanted to buy just stay put in the property they already live in, all the stats are telling you that now loud and clear?

You keep trying to join completely disconnected things together as if they somehow prove your random assertions.

How does a reduced number of transactions in the short term somehow disprove that the population of the country has increased?

You have made factually incorrect statements, deliberately, in an attempt to support your point.  That is the definition of misinformation.  I have provided the evidence to disprove them.  Rather than providing evidence to support your position or explain why my evidence is incorrect, you then select another random statistic to post about.  The classic tactic of a spin merchant. 

Sarah1Mitty2

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

So what you meant to say was "at some indeterminate point in the future, prices might, in some areas, have dropped by some amount which might be somewhere near 20%"

That's a bit different than "in many areas prices have dropped by now"

  No, I meant to say what I said, there is no real price discovery in a stalled market with collapsed sales volumes and mortgage approvals, the only guide the OP can follow is - Are people viewing? When people are viewing the asking price is in the correct ballpark, although you need to be prepared for down-valuations, last minute reductions citing "market conditions" etc.

If there is "no real price discovery" then you have no evidence for "prices have dropped", let alone "dropped by more than 20%".  The best you can say is "prices might have dropped".

 Ok, In my Opinion.....achievable prices in many areas have dropped by more than 20% as soon as rates started heading for 5% and the talk moved to even higher rates for longer, there is nothing to stop prices going back to similar levels to the last time rates were this high (still historically very low) as it is obvious that props to the market are not being deployed for fear of bond market reaction. My advice to the OP would be to get the house on the market at a price that clears the debt and hope that someone sees that as a bargain.

February 2008 - there have been 15 years of population increase, inflation and lack of housebuilding since then.

No, we didn`t have inflation during those 15 years, that is why rates were kept far too low for too long leading to the current mess. The other things you mention don`t seem to have stopped demand for property (as shown by sales and mortgage approvals) dropping sharply, not sure they make all that much difference TBH because as people enter the country people also unfortunately pass away, and people also leave the country! Unfortunately people who believed the "Supply and Demand" arguments and rushed into mortgage debt on that basis were led along the wrong path which is why my advice to the OP is to try to clear the debt and start again.

We had inflation for all but 6 months of that period.



Slightly old, but population increased by nearly half a million people each year in 2008-2014, after accounting for all the effects you state.  It's unlikely that his trend has suddenly turned negative, as other sources show growth through to 2021 at least and the last time the population shrank was the first half of the 1940s.

Any other easily-disprovable statements you would like to make in response?

 Can you post up the inflation from May`21 to now so we can have a look, and can you explain why with all those people coming into the country the housing market still required emergency rates to function? What you have posted kind of proves my point that it is mortgage rates that decide whether a house sells and not "population". You have disproved nothing and are not offering any advice to the OP, what is your advice to the OP?

You stated that there was no inflation in the 15 years between 2008 and 2023.  I have shown you 13 of those 15 years and there was inflation in all of them.  Your statement was false.

As you want the numbers since 2021, here they are (I chose the other graph previously because it included the base rate):

I'm sure you will agree that there was still inflation after 2021, and therefore there was actually inflation in all 15 of the years.

You stated that increasing population could be disregarded for housing demand because people die and leave the country.  There are several million more people in the country now than 2008.  They all need to live somewhere.  Your statement was false.

Misinformation must be called out, regardless of whether I am directly advising the OP or not.  Otherwise they will be making decisions based on false data.

"There are several million more people in the country now than 2008.  They all need to live somewhere"

Why am I seeing quotes like this in the media in that case?

"There were just 43,209 house transactions in February, 45pc less than in December 2021, and 37pc lower than the same month last year, according to data from the House Buyer Bureau."

Also according to that article mortgage rates are now higher than during the Truss budget scare, media are strangely quiet on that topic for some reason?

You are not calling out "misinformation" you are trying to square a circle  that makes desire for houses (no one viewing to buy is homeless remember) equal ability to pay for housing, people who can no longer afford the house they wanted to buy just stay put in the property they already live in, all the stats are telling you that now loud and clear?

You keep trying to join completely disconnected things together as if they somehow prove your random assertions.

How does a reduced number of transactions in the short term somehow disprove that the population of the country has increased?

You have made factually incorrect statements, deliberately, in an attempt to support your point.  That is the definition of misinformation.  I have provided the evidence to disprove them.  Rather than providing evidence to support your position or explain why my evidence is incorrect, you then select another random statistic to post about.  The classic tactic of a spin merchant. 

"How does a reduced number of transactions in the short term somehow disprove that the population of the country has increased?"

It doesn`t, it proves that people`s willingness or ability to buy property is dictated by borrowing costs, not the number of people in the country.

My point is that viewings, mortgage approvals and sales are all massively down, and that will affect the OP`s sale, are you in agreement with that point or not in agreement, and do you have any actual advice for the OP?