Is inflation becoming sticky?

sevenhills

Pat38493 said:

Still - this old thread from April makes NedS look like a better expert than the BOE!

That good 😊

Universidad

Altior said:

If people are hungry enough they will work... Work is not mean to be rewarding, it is meant to be fundamentally essential (as a default).

There's that puritanical attitude to work I was talking about. 

How far do you go with that out of interest? Are you an anti-capitalist? Do you think it's fundamentally morally wrong that wealthy people can leverage capital to generate wealth without working?

Or is it only the poors who must work?

Pat38493

Arguably if you believe in that, you should refuse to have your pension assets invested and insist that you are going to work till you drop.

Workerdrone

Altior said:

Universidad said:

Malthusian said:

"Quiet quitting" means "fulfilling your job description to the letter and no more, not doing unpaid overtime, etc". (Not "going on the dole".)

Yes, I don't think benefits claimants are that much of a problem, as I say.

But I do think the fact that work is less and less rewarding is a problem, especially when there's a huge cultural momentum suggesting that hard work pays off.

The expectation of extra work from employers has, in my experience, increased dramatically in the last 15 years. There's always the suggestion of jam tomorrow, and I think many younger folks have figured out that working harder just won't bring you jam.

Malthusian said:

For many baby boomers, what we now called "quiet quitting" was compulsory. If you went over and above you got in trouble with the union.

I have never seen that argument made by anyone from that generation before, but it's a really good point!

If people are hungry enough they will work.

It was as certain as Thursday is tomorrow that furlough would give a proportion of people a taste of being sustained relatively comfortably, free of effort from themselves. It wouldn't be a choice for me, but for others it's their ambition to go through life off the backs of others. 

Work is not mean to be rewarding, it is meant to be fundamentally essential (as a default). A developed society takes care of people who can't work. Not those who simply don't feel like it, or allow themselves to become physically incapable. And with the development of technology, there are very very few people of working age who literally can't work.  

So doubtless, I'm going to come across as a heartless !!!!!!.

Im not going to get into the benefits/furlough/don't work don't eat discussion. I take another slant on the whole thing. Ive been lucky enough to be fairly insulated from recession up until now. I'm 47, this is the first time in my life I've properly had to deal with a recession on my own two feet. I was living at homes a teen in the early 90's and saw how worrying that was (Parents had a building firm), there was still food etc, but the atmosphere of stress stayed with me.

I was recovering from a messy divorce which wiped me out financially in 2007/2008 so moved back home and was just working temp jobs. I'd already lost the house and savings, I didn't have any skin in the game to worry about the GFC.

That said, the experiences of knowing how things can go pear shaped and watching others overstretch themselves made me very much a scrimper and saver, a person who roots out the best deal and automatically stress tests their position.

I was already worried about the amount of QE back in 2016. I was expecting inflation to kick in, yet it never did until post COVID.

So I am sat here on a 10 year fixed offset at 2.75% with a float of 30k in it. 34% LTV, various other assets, two cars, a caravan, no credit card debt, no other loans, I salary sacrifice myself down the the equivalent net earnings of £21.5k and put £1450 a month into pension (including er) the Mrs earns just under £40k with enhancements, she has a db and a small private pension we top up monthly. Monthly savings are around £911 which is used to top up various pots for clothes, Christmas, household, holiday, car repair, car replacement etc.

We each leave ourselves with £300 personal spending money a month.

For me, inflation feels like an annoyance rather than something to worry about. My food shop and a few other bills have gone up, but I've just upped the organisational skills and cook more efficiently with what Aldi sells.

So yes, I probably come across as a heartless !!!!!! and smug to boot. But frankly, I chose to put myself in this position and others chose to put themselves in their position. We have so many layers of insulation and contingency that if inflation/recession becomes a worry for us, it means its armageddon for others.

Its not the inflation which bothers me, Its the fact there's still too much money sloshing around post covid. You can see that in the restaurants, the bars, the airport departure lounge. We have this perfect storm of people with excess savings, sitting on fixed rate deals.

That could well describe me but for one factor, Im not prepared to pay the inflated prices for luxury goods, they are.

I feel increasing the base rate isn't the right remedy. People are still going to splash that excess cash and drive up prices whilst protected by their fixed rates. One day that rate is going to end and they'll have sleepwalked into a serious problem. At that point, the economic merry go round comes to an abrupt stop.

I'd much rather see the VAT rate being increased used to more directly temper consumer spending.

Ebeneezer9

So doubtless, I'm going to come across as a heartless !!!!!!.

Im not going to get into the benefits/furlough/don't work don't eat discussion. I take another slant on the whole thing. Ive been lucky enough to be fairly insulated from recession up until now. I'm 47, this is the first time in my life I've properly had to deal with a recession on my own two feet. I was living at homes a teen in the early 90's and saw how worrying that was (Parents had a building firm), there was still food etc, but the atmosphere of stress stayed with me.

I was recovering from a messy divorce which wiped me out financially in 2007/2008 so moved back home and was just working temp jobs. I'd already lost the house and savings, I didn't have any skin in the game to worry about the GFC.

That said, the experiences of knowing how things can go pear shaped and watching others overstretch themselves made me very much a scrimper and saver, a person who roots out the best deal and automatically stress tests their position.

I was already worried about the amount of QE back in 2016. I was expecting inflation to kick in, yet it never did until post COVID.

So I am sat here on a 10 year fixed offset at 2.75% with a float of 30k in it. 34% LTV, various other assets, two cars, a caravan, no credit card debt, no other loans, I salary sacrifice myself down the the equivalent net earnings of £21.5k and put £1450 a month into pension (including er) the Mrs earns just under £40k with enhancements, she has a db and a small private pension we top up monthly. Monthly savings are around £911 which is used to top up various pots for clothes, Christmas, household, holiday, car repair, car replacement etc.

We each leave ourselves with £300 personal spending money a month.

For me, inflation feels like an annoyance rather than something to worry about. My food shop and a few other bills have gone up, but I've just upped the organisational skills and cook more efficiently with what Aldi sells.

So yes, I probably come across as a heartless !!!!!! and smug to boot. But frankly, I chose to put myself in this position and others chose to put themselves in their position. We have so many layers of insulation and contingency that if inflation/recession becomes a worry for us, it means its armageddon for others.

Its not the inflation which bothers me, Its the fact there's still too much money sloshing around post covid. You can see that in the restaurants, the bars, the airport departure lounge. We have this perfect storm of people with excess savings, sitting on fixed rate deals.

That could well describe me but for one factor, Im not prepared to pay the inflated prices for luxury goods, they are.

I feel increasing the base rate isn't the right remedy. People are still going to splash that excess cash and drive up prices whilst protected by their fixed rates. One day that rate is going to end and they'll have sleepwalked into a serious problem. At that point, the economic merry go round comes to an abrupt stop.

I'd much rather see the VAT rate being increased used to more directly temper consumer spending.

You are not heartless, just living in the real world.  I live by a similar tenet, work hard for remuneration and look after it. 

Workerdrone

Ebeneezer9 said:

So doubtless, I'm going to come across as a heartless !!!!!!.

Im not going to get into the benefits/furlough/don't work don't eat discussion. I take another slant on the whole thing. Ive been lucky enough to be fairly insulated from recession up until now. I'm 47, this is the first time in my life I've properly had to deal with a recession on my own two feet. I was living at homes a teen in the early 90's and saw how worrying that was (Parents had a building firm), there was still food etc, but the atmosphere of stress stayed with me.

I was recovering from a messy divorce which wiped me out financially in 2007/2008 so moved back home and was just working temp jobs. I'd already lost the house and savings, I didn't have any skin in the game to worry about the GFC.

That said, the experiences of knowing how things can go pear shaped and watching others overstretch themselves made me very much a scrimper and saver, a person who roots out the best deal and automatically stress tests their position.

I was already worried about the amount of QE back in 2016. I was expecting inflation to kick in, yet it never did until post COVID.

So I am sat here on a 10 year fixed offset at 2.75% with a float of 30k in it. 34% LTV, various other assets, two cars, a caravan, no credit card debt, no other loans, I salary sacrifice myself down the the equivalent net earnings of £21.5k and put £1450 a month into pension (including er) the Mrs earns just under £40k with enhancements, she has a db and a small private pension we top up monthly. Monthly savings are around £911 which is used to top up various pots for clothes, Christmas, household, holiday, car repair, car replacement etc.

We each leave ourselves with £300 personal spending money a month.

For me, inflation feels like an annoyance rather than something to worry about. My food shop and a few other bills have gone up, but I've just upped the organisational skills and cook more efficiently with what Aldi sells.

So yes, I probably come across as a heartless !!!!!! and smug to boot. But frankly, I chose to put myself in this position and others chose to put themselves in their position. We have so many layers of insulation and contingency that if inflation/recession becomes a worry for us, it means its armageddon for others.

Its not the inflation which bothers me, Its the fact there's still too much money sloshing around post covid. You can see that in the restaurants, the bars, the airport departure lounge. We have this perfect storm of people with excess savings, sitting on fixed rate deals.

That could well describe me but for one factor, Im not prepared to pay the inflated prices for luxury goods, they are.

I feel increasing the base rate isn't the right remedy. People are still going to splash that excess cash and drive up prices whilst protected by their fixed rates. One day that rate is going to end and they'll have sleepwalked into a serious problem. At that point, the economic merry go round comes to an abrupt stop.

I'd much rather see the VAT rate being increased used to more directly temper consumer spending.

You are not heartless, just living in the real world.  I live by a similar tenet, work hard for remuneration and look after it. 

Life used to be so simple. Long before the government coopted the phrase "People who do the right thing", there used to be a social concensus of what doing the right thing looked like. My grandma used to refer to someone as a "proper person", by that she mean a person with standards, a tidy garden, chose to work, cut their cloth accordingly and a lot of other small acts which were the glue of society.  I think the unspoken social convention at the time would have extended to being married before having children (But despite evidence on outcomes for children, we'll not delve into that argument in 2023).

Nowadays a heck of a lot of people would choose to put themselves in the category of "doing the right thing", just because they are employed. To me doing the right thing is trying to put yourself in a position where you need as little government assistance as possible, that should really be reserved for those who through situations outside of their control need help. If falling off their fixed rate beggars a person because they have a PCP and furniture on tick, don't go crying to the government for assistance, they were never doing the right thing to begin with.

Trouble is life now is so laissez faire. Where once convention kept people broadly on the strait and narrow for fear of disapproval or coming unstick, nowadays anything goes and entitlement is rife. There is no longer a true yardstick and we are all supposedly gloriously equal in our diversity of opinion and life choices.

See, I told you... heartless... or possibly just the last of a dying breed. Old school.

Pat38493

These comments reminds me of the old Douglas Adams quote something along the lines of the intelligence of dolphins vs humans:

Mankind believed that they were the most intelligent species on the planet.  After all, they invented cars, houses, 5 day a week work careers, aeroplanes, steel, pensions, churches, money, hummus, pet crematoriums, and digital watches, whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having fun.

Meanwhile, dolphins believed they were the most intelligent creatures on the planet.  For the exact same reason.

Workerdrone

Pat38493 said:

These comments reminds me of the old Douglas Adams quote something along the lines of the intelligence of dolphins vs humans:

Mankind believed that they were the most intelligent species on the planet.  After all, they invented cars, houses, 5 day a week work careers, aeroplanes, steel, pensions, churches, money, hummus, pet crematoriums, and digital watches, whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having fun.

Meanwhile, dolphins believed they were the most intelligent creatures on the planet.  For the exact same reason.

So long and thanks for all the f.... oh, they've been repossessed.

MACKEM99

UK inflation to fall to 2.9% by the end of the year, says Jeremy Hunt

Inflation in the UK will fall to 2.9 per cent by the end of 2023, Jeremy Hunt said in his Budget announcement on Wednesday, 15 March.

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, average rate of price rises was expected to be 7.4 per cent for this year.

However, the pace of price rises is now expected to slow by more than previously predicted.

It comes after surging energy bills sent the UK’s annual inflation rate to 11.1 per cent - a 41-year-high - in November 2022.

Albermarle

Workerdrone said:

Altior said:

Universidad said:

Malthusian said:

"Quiet quitting" means "fulfilling your job description to the letter and no more, not doing unpaid overtime, etc". (Not "going on the dole".)

Yes, I don't think benefits claimants are that much of a problem, as I say.

But I do think the fact that work is less and less rewarding is a problem, especially when there's a huge cultural momentum suggesting that hard work pays off.

The expectation of extra work from employers has, in my experience, increased dramatically in the last 15 years. There's always the suggestion of jam tomorrow, and I think many younger folks have figured out that working harder just won't bring you jam.

Malthusian said:

For many baby boomers, what we now called "quiet quitting" was compulsory. If you went over and above you got in trouble with the union.

I have never seen that argument made by anyone from that generation before, but it's a really good point!

If people are hungry enough they will work.

It was as certain as Thursday is tomorrow that furlough would give a proportion of people a taste of being sustained relatively comfortably, free of effort from themselves. It wouldn't be a choice for me, but for others it's their ambition to go through life off the backs of others. 

Work is not mean to be rewarding, it is meant to be fundamentally essential (as a default). A developed society takes care of people who can't work. Not those who simply don't feel like it, or allow themselves to become physically incapable. And with the development of technology, there are very very few people of working age who literally can't work.  

So doubtless, I'm going to come across as a heartless !!!!!!.

Im not going to get into the benefits/furlough/don't work don't eat discussion. I take another slant on the whole thing. Ive been lucky enough to be fairly insulated from recession up until now. I'm 47, this is the first time in my life I've properly had to deal with a recession on my own two feet. I was living at homes a teen in the early 90's and saw how worrying that was (Parents had a building firm), there was still food etc, but the atmosphere of stress stayed with me.

I was recovering from a messy divorce which wiped me out financially in 2007/2008 so moved back home and was just working temp jobs. I'd already lost the house and savings, I didn't have any skin in the game to worry about the GFC.

That said, the experiences of knowing how things can go pear shaped and watching others overstretch themselves made me very much a scrimper and saver, a person who roots out the best deal and automatically stress tests their position.

I was already worried about the amount of QE back in 2016. I was expecting inflation to kick in, yet it never did until post COVID.

So I am sat here on a 10 year fixed offset at 2.75% with a float of 30k in it. 34% LTV, various other assets, two cars, a caravan, no credit card debt, no other loans, I salary sacrifice myself down the the equivalent net earnings of £21.5k and put £1450 a month into pension (including er) the Mrs earns just under £40k with enhancements, she has a db and a small private pension we top up monthly. Monthly savings are around £911 which is used to top up various pots for clothes, Christmas, household, holiday, car repair, car replacement etc.

We each leave ourselves with £300 personal spending money a month.

For me, inflation feels like an annoyance rather than something to worry about. My food shop and a few other bills have gone up, but I've just upped the organisational skills and cook more efficiently with what Aldi sells.

So yes, I probably come across as a heartless !!!!!! and smug to boot. But frankly, I chose to put myself in this position and others chose to put themselves in their position. We have so many layers of insulation and contingency that if inflation/recession becomes a worry for us, it means its armageddon for others.

Its not the inflation which bothers me, Its the fact there's still too much money sloshing around post covid. You can see that in the restaurants, the bars, the airport departure lounge. We have this perfect storm of people with excess savings, sitting on fixed rate deals.

That could well describe me but for one factor, Im not prepared to pay the inflated prices for luxury goods, they are.

I feel increasing the base rate isn't the right remedy. People are still going to splash that excess cash and drive up prices whilst protected by their fixed rates. One day that rate is going to end and they'll have sleepwalked into a serious problem. At that point, the economic merry go round comes to an abrupt stop.

I'd much rather see the VAT rate being increased used to more directly temper consumer spending.

It used to be the wisdom that rises in house prices brought a ' feel rich' factor to many people, and encouraged them to spend more freely.
Maybe a significant drop along with rising mortgage payments, would undermine confidence and put a stop to the scenario about too much money sloshing around that you describe. Especially if there are a lot of doom laden headlines about negative equity.