Post Covid pandemic falls in UK life expectancy

woolly_wombat

‘Shorter life expectancy gives UK pensions an unexpected windfall’

https://www.ft.com/content/8af4e821-1e14-4c6a-a98c-1b670851b38c

First the good news:

The article claims that up to £30bn could be wiped from UK corporate pension scheme liabilities.

Then the bad news:

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has revised life expectancy assumptions at retirement age downwards by around six months due to high death rates in the second half of 2022 (i.e. post Covid pandemic).

Note that, according to the article, this comes on top of a downwards revision of life expectancy at retirement age of around seven months in 2017-18 (i.e. pre Covid pandemic), which was the largest fall since the tables were established in 2009.

MikeJXE

Oh dear does that mean I am not going to live longer than my sister 86 my mum 93 and my uncle 98

I'm only a fit 82 so how long have I got ? 

Marcon

MikeJXE said:

Oh dear does that mean I am not going to live longer than my sister 86 my mum 93 and my uncle 98

I'm only a fit 82 so how long have I got ? 

For a definitive answer(!) try http://deathclock.com

MikeJXE

I wouldn't normally click a link but for you I did.

Filled in the blanks 

It seems my time has long been over so I'm in extended time that has no end 

plumb1_2

Flippin heck it says I’ve only got 4 yrs left. Chicken Ranch here I come.

retiringtoosoon

You’re all dead, you just haven’t stopped moving yet.

Malthusian

MikeJXE said:

I wouldn't normally click a link but for you I did.

Filled in the blanks 

It seems my time has long been over so I'm in extended time that has no end 

It's like a game of chess. Every time you move you get another thirty seconds.
It's a very dubious idea of a "windfall". It's money that Government statisticians thought defined benefit schemes might have to spend decades from now but it now thinks they won't have to spend it because their previous guess about how much they might have to spend was wrong. The windfall might disappear in a flash if it turns out they got it wrong again. 

Grumpy_chap

woolly_wombat said:

‘Shorter life expectancy gives UK pensions an unexpected windfall’

https://www.ft.com/content/8af4e821-1e14-4c6a-a98c-1b670851b38c

First the good news:

The article claims that up to £30bn could be wiped from UK corporate pension scheme liabilities.

Then the bad news:

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has revised life expectancy assumptions at retirement age downwards by around six months due to high death rates in the second half of 2022 (i.e. post Covid pandemic).

Note that, according to the article, this comes on top of a downwards revision of life expectancy at retirement age of around seven months in 2017-18 (i.e. pre Covid pandemic), which was the largest fall since the tables were established in 2009.

This is all just a statistical anomaly.

Some people died earlier than they otherwise would have because of COVID - those people therefore receive less from their annuity / DB pension than they otherwise would have.

I don't believe that extends to someone alive today having any shorter life expectancy than they would have expected to have had as at 1st January 2020 (before COVID).  Obviously just over 3 years of that life expectancy have been used.

Pat38493

Grumpy_chap said:

woolly_wombat said:

‘Shorter life expectancy gives UK pensions an unexpected windfall’

https://www.ft.com/content/8af4e821-1e14-4c6a-a98c-1b670851b38c

First the good news:

The article claims that up to £30bn could be wiped from UK corporate pension scheme liabilities.

Then the bad news:

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has revised life expectancy assumptions at retirement age downwards by around six months due to high death rates in the second half of 2022 (i.e. post Covid pandemic).

Note that, according to the article, this comes on top of a downwards revision of life expectancy at retirement age of around seven months in 2017-18 (i.e. pre Covid pandemic), which was the largest fall since the tables were established in 2009.

This is all just a statistical anomaly.

Some people died earlier than they otherwise would have because of COVID - those people therefore receive less from their annuity / DB pension than they otherwise would have.

I don't believe that extends to someone alive today having any shorter life expectancy than they would have expected to have had as at 1st January 2020 (before COVID).  Obviously just over 3 years of that life expectancy have been used.

That's what I thought at first, but the OP seemed to imply that this happened after Covid and there is some claim that this is not a one off event but something that is not due to Covid.  Like you I have my doubts though.

GunJack

It's probably down to the 2 yrs-ish of being sedentary with lockdowns, wfh, etc.....

woolly_wombat

Grumpy_chap said:

This is all just a statistical anomaly.

Some people died earlier than they otherwise would have because of COVID - those people therefore receive less from their annuity / DB pension than they otherwise would have.

I don't believe that extends to someone alive today having any shorter life expectancy than they would have expected to have had as at 1st January 2020 (before COVID).  Obviously just over 3 years of that life expectancy have been used.

Nothing to do with COVID.

There were falls in life expectancy both BEFORE Covid (2017-18) and AFTER Covid (second half of 2022).

The statistical anomaly due to Covid appears to have been ignored as a one off event.