Are we expecting BOE to remain at 5.25% on 20th June 2024?

lojo1000

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

We benefited at the expense of our collective children.

Or if you are a glass half-full type of person, our children benefitted from more jobs because more people were spending more money which required more products and services.

We can create as many jobs as anyone could ever want. Print trillions, lend it to the government to increase spending, reduce taxes, cut interest rates.

Glass-half says, we have a lot of jobs and lots and spending.

The realists say this is a short term solution which creates a long term problem of devaluing the currency which creates either asset inflation and/or general inflation. Either way, when you come into the world, you come in with nothing and start from the bottom. When you devalue the currency, the young need to run faster just to try and break-even.

This explains the trend of recent decades why people are having children later, less children and those children leave home later and need more support from their parents when they do.

Buy hey-ho, as long as GDP is increasing now, I guess that is all that matters to the "glass half-full" optimists.

MobileSaver

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

We benefited at the expense of our collective children.

Or if you are a glass half-full type of person, our children benefitted from more jobs because more people were spending more money which required more products and services.

the young need to run faster just to try and break-even. ... Buy hey-ho, as long as GDP is increasing now, I guess that is all that matters to the "glass half-full" optimists.

Yes, optimists will look on the bright side and acknowledge you cannot buy a bag of sweets for a penny any more or buy a four bed detached house for £10k anymore but life in general is easier, more interesting, more comfortable and with more choices than ever before.

"The young" have never had it so good and all they need to do is manage their expectations and make better more informed choices in life...

lojo1000

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

We benefited at the expense of our collective children.

Or if you are a glass half-full type of person, our children benefitted from more jobs because more people were spending more money which required more products and services.

the young need to run faster just to try and break-even. ... Buy hey-ho, as long as GDP is increasing now, I guess that is all that matters to the "glass half-full" optimists.

Yes, optimists will look on the bright side and acknowledge you cannot buy a bag of sweets for a penny any more or buy a four bed detached house for £10k anymore but life in general is easier, more interesting, more comfortable and with more choices than ever before.

"The young" have never had it so good and all they need to do is manage their expectations and make better more informed choices in life...

All relative generational gains have come through technology/productivity not easy fiscal/ monetary policy.

You cannot buy a "bag of sweets for a penny anymore" not because the sweets are better but because our currency is worth less. That is not a sign of progress.

Having easy monetary policy allows less productive firms to stay in business at the expense of younger, more efficient businesses who are starved of capital which would otherwise be freed up by allowing inefficient businesses to go under.

Do you think you need to easy fiscal/monetary policy to achieve progress?

BarelySentientAI

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

We benefited at the expense of our collective children.

Or if you are a glass half-full type of person, our children benefitted from more jobs because more people were spending more money which required more products and services.

the young need to run faster just to try and break-even. ... Buy hey-ho, as long as GDP is increasing now, I guess that is all that matters to the "glass half-full" optimists.

Yes, optimists will look on the bright side and acknowledge you cannot buy a bag of sweets for a penny any more or buy a four bed detached house for £10k anymore but life in general is easier, more interesting, more comfortable and with more choices than ever before.

"The young" have never had it so good and all they need to do is manage their expectations and make better more informed choices in life...

All relative generational gains have come through technology/productivity not easy fiscal/ monetary policy.

You cannot buy a "bag of sweets for a penny anymore" not because the sweets are better but because our currency is worth less. That is not a sign of progress.

Having easy monetary policy allows less productive firms to stay in business at the expense of younger, more efficient businesses who are starved of capital which would otherwise be freed up by allowing inefficient businesses to go under.

Do you think you need to easy fiscal/monetary policy to achieve progress?

I'm not sure that hiking up interest rates to create deflation and mass redundancies counts as progress either, nor would it suddenly result in massive investment in 'younger' businesses.

lojo1000

BarelySentientAI said:

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

We benefited at the expense of our collective children.

Or if you are a glass half-full type of person, our children benefitted from more jobs because more people were spending more money which required more products and services.

the young need to run faster just to try and break-even. ... Buy hey-ho, as long as GDP is increasing now, I guess that is all that matters to the "glass half-full" optimists.

Yes, optimists will look on the bright side and acknowledge you cannot buy a bag of sweets for a penny any more or buy a four bed detached house for £10k anymore but life in general is easier, more interesting, more comfortable and with more choices than ever before.

"The young" have never had it so good and all they need to do is manage their expectations and make better more informed choices in life...

All relative generational gains have come through technology/productivity not easy fiscal/ monetary policy.

You cannot buy a "bag of sweets for a penny anymore" not because the sweets are better but because our currency is worth less. That is not a sign of progress.

Having easy monetary policy allows less productive firms to stay in business at the expense of younger, more efficient businesses who are starved of capital which would otherwise be freed up by allowing inefficient businesses to go under.

Do you think you need to easy fiscal/monetary policy to achieve progress?

I'm not sure that hiking up interest rates to create deflation and mass redundancies counts as progress either, nor would it suddenly result in massive investment in 'younger' businesses.

Agreed. Rates should be maintained where they are now. I'm not seeing deflation or mass redundancies.

BarelySentientAI

lojo1000 said:

BarelySentientAI said:

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

We benefited at the expense of our collective children.

Or if you are a glass half-full type of person, our children benefitted from more jobs because more people were spending more money which required more products and services.

the young need to run faster just to try and break-even. ... Buy hey-ho, as long as GDP is increasing now, I guess that is all that matters to the "glass half-full" optimists.

Yes, optimists will look on the bright side and acknowledge you cannot buy a bag of sweets for a penny any more or buy a four bed detached house for £10k anymore but life in general is easier, more interesting, more comfortable and with more choices than ever before.

"The young" have never had it so good and all they need to do is manage their expectations and make better more informed choices in life...

All relative generational gains have come through technology/productivity not easy fiscal/ monetary policy.

You cannot buy a "bag of sweets for a penny anymore" not because the sweets are better but because our currency is worth less. That is not a sign of progress.

Having easy monetary policy allows less productive firms to stay in business at the expense of younger, more efficient businesses who are starved of capital which would otherwise be freed up by allowing inefficient businesses to go under.

Do you think you need to easy fiscal/monetary policy to achieve progress?

I'm not sure that hiking up interest rates to create deflation and mass redundancies counts as progress either, nor would it suddenly result in massive investment in 'younger' businesses.

Agreed. Rates should be maintained where they are now. I'm not seeing deflation or mass redundancies.

Yeah, I don't see any need for lower at the moment either.

RelievedSheff

No need for lower rates at all at the moment.

Strummer22

lojo1000 said:

BarelySentientAI said:

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

We benefited at the expense of our collective children.

Or if you are a glass half-full type of person, our children benefitted from more jobs because more people were spending more money which required more products and services.

the young need to run faster just to try and break-even. ... Buy hey-ho, as long as GDP is increasing now, I guess that is all that matters to the "glass half-full" optimists.

Yes, optimists will look on the bright side and acknowledge you cannot buy a bag of sweets for a penny any more or buy a four bed detached house for £10k anymore but life in general is easier, more interesting, more comfortable and with more choices than ever before.

"The young" have never had it so good and all they need to do is manage their expectations and make better more informed choices in life...

All relative generational gains have come through technology/productivity not easy fiscal/ monetary policy.

You cannot buy a "bag of sweets for a penny anymore" not because the sweets are better but because our currency is worth less. That is not a sign of progress.

Having easy monetary policy allows less productive firms to stay in business at the expense of younger, more efficient businesses who are starved of capital which would otherwise be freed up by allowing inefficient businesses to go under.

Do you think you need to easy fiscal/monetary policy to achieve progress?

I'm not sure that hiking up interest rates to create deflation and mass redundancies counts as progress either, nor would it suddenly result in massive investment in 'younger' businesses.

Agreed. Rates should be maintained where they are now. I'm not seeing deflation or mass redundancies.

Not seeing deflation yet.

The BoE is supposed to be looking ahead, given that interest rate changes take 18 months + to take full effect.

If they predict inflation will be well below 2% target at the end of their 2 year forecast period, that would be cause for considering a rate cut. 

sevenhills

MobileSaver said:

The general consensus is that low interest rates benefit all of us because they encourage spending which grows the economy.

I would say that low interest rates encourage investment, but spending is not always a good thing. The Government need lower interest rates, because they have a massive debt.

If CPI is lower than wage increases, that is expected because CPI is not a real measure of inflation. It doesn't include housing costs/interest rate rises.

lojo1000

Strummer22 said:

lojo1000 said:

BarelySentientAI said:

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

MobileSaver said:

lojo1000 said:

We benefited at the expense of our collective children.

Or if you are a glass half-full type of person, our children benefitted from more jobs because more people were spending more money which required more products and services.

the young need to run faster just to try and break-even. ... Buy hey-ho, as long as GDP is increasing now, I guess that is all that matters to the "glass half-full" optimists.

Yes, optimists will look on the bright side and acknowledge you cannot buy a bag of sweets for a penny any more or buy a four bed detached house for £10k anymore but life in general is easier, more interesting, more comfortable and with more choices than ever before.

"The young" have never had it so good and all they need to do is manage their expectations and make better more informed choices in life...

All relative generational gains have come through technology/productivity not easy fiscal/ monetary policy.

You cannot buy a "bag of sweets for a penny anymore" not because the sweets are better but because our currency is worth less. That is not a sign of progress.

Having easy monetary policy allows less productive firms to stay in business at the expense of younger, more efficient businesses who are starved of capital which would otherwise be freed up by allowing inefficient businesses to go under.

Do you think you need to easy fiscal/monetary policy to achieve progress?

I'm not sure that hiking up interest rates to create deflation and mass redundancies counts as progress either, nor would it suddenly result in massive investment in 'younger' businesses.

Agreed. Rates should be maintained where they are now. I'm not seeing deflation or mass redundancies.

Not seeing deflation yet.

The BoE is supposed to be looking ahead, given that interest rate changes take 18 months + to take full effect.

If they predict inflation will be well below 2% target at the end of their 2 year forecast period, that would be cause for considering a rate cut. 

"given that interest rate changes take 18 months + to take full effect."

This line is trotted out so often, people who lack the ability or will to question what they are told accept it as a constant truth. It is not.

The economy changes. We are not the same economy now as markets pre-empt easy monetary policy. This is how central banks could simply promise QE and rates cuts and markets start to salivate since 2008 (and why we are in this mess).

The issue with moving rates up and down on the expectations of the impact 2-3 years ahead is that you are constantly chasing your tail.

LET THE MARKETS ADJUST PRICES.

If businesses fail as they cannot afford their overdraft let them die. Let the capital flow to businesses who are better at managing their capital.

Cutting rates to incentivise more money creation without increasing supply is just creating inflation. Inflation appears in assets if money flows to the wealthy (through monetary easing) and to general inflation if money flows to the general population (through fiscal easing).

Govts and central bankers will tell people they are managing the economy. And the media and people who lack a critical mind will repeat what they say. They are influencing the economy, but they bring no benefit, only uncertainty.

Morning rant over. For now.....