Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

michaels

TheAble said:

Govt debt is beyond the point it will ever be paid off. Osborne tried his best but couldn't even eliminate the deficit, never mind paying off any debt. And that was with zero interest rates...

True but it is close to the point where it becomes unsustainable if it increases any further so unless you can imagine cuts to govt spending (didn't think so) then taxes will increase.  If doing so now rather than in 24 months time reduces the need for ruinous interest rates and reduces the interest bill payable and the sovereign risk premia then isn't it worth paying a bit more tax now in order to pay a bit less later?

TheAble

It's way past that point. You seriously think we're going to pay back over a trillion? Tax hikes will make no difference at all to the debt; they might reduce the deficit temporarily but ultimately the more you tax people the less inclined they will be to work.

Strummer22

This morning's inflation figures came in below the forecast and economists' consensus for a change. In my view this makes it unlikely that another 0.5% hike is on the cards. 0.25% seems more likely. 

FTSE 250 likes the news, up 2.5% on the hope that the BoE won't have to take a sledgehammer to the economy to bring inflation down.

michaels

So 10 mins to go but odds on 5.25% and perhaps only 1 more increase?

johnhenstock

quite a stupid decision, not that inflation has clearly tipped and is falling down. as always, too late, incompetent BoE.

michaels

johnhenstock said:

quite a stupid decision, not that inflation has clearly tipped and is falling down. as always, too late, incompetent BoE.

Yes - the slow impact on the way up as a result of smaller proportion of homes having mortgages and most of those being fixes suggests that the same problem will likely emerge on the way down - ie that monetary policy is a weak and laggy tool

NorfolkCanary

TheAble said:

I lose over a third of my income to tax and NI - I'd say that's enough don't you think?

No.
We have an issue in this country of expecting European quality of services, healthcare provision etc...,with US style level of taxation. One isn't achievable without the other.
If we want quality public services we need to pay for them and actually value & 'invest' in, as the public rather than sit back and expect everything on a plate, so yes, increase tax for all ranges.
What would benefit is increased wages to compensate and government (& buddies) we can trust not to rampant profiteer.

Strummer22

johnhenstock said:

quite a stupid decision, not that inflation has clearly tipped and is falling down. as always, too late, incompetent BoE.

I think the next decision will depend heavily on the next two sets of earnings and inflation data. If both of the next two months show lower earnings growth and inflation than is forecast, the rate might be unchanged in Sept. If one month is concerning but the other is ok, it’ll be 0.25 rise, and if both months show earnings and inflation aren’t falling (so June’s surprise inflation fall was just a ‘blip’) it’ll be a 0.5 rise.

Mish_Mash

I read somewhere this week that we are forecast higher than expected food inflation again this year due to the impact of the recent weather on crops but also due to the Russians stopping the flow of grain out of Ukraine.

Food shortages and subsequent inflation will not help the already bad situation. I fear we have a number of world events that are beyond our control but that will continue to impact inflation and our interest rates. 

Ibits4321

NorfolkCanary said:

TheAble said:

I lose over a third of my income to tax and NI - I'd say that's enough don't you think?

No.
We have an issue in this country of expecting European quality of services, healthcare provision etc...,with US style level of taxation. One isn't achievable without the other.
If we want quality public services we need to pay for them and actually value & 'invest' in, as the public rather than sit back and expect everything on a plate, so yes, increase tax for all ranges.
What would benefit is increased wages to compensate and government (& buddies) we can trust not to rampant profiteer.

I don't agree with this. We're taxed so much in this country and get barely functioning services because the government are too busy enriching themselves. I don't think anybody would complain about taxes if we had 2010 levels of satisfaction in the NHS and no billions lost on bogus croney contracts/PPE/COVID loan fraud etc. The 50k higher tax threshold being frozen until 2028 is scandalous, by the way. It should be 60k already if it just rose by inflation. I shudder to think what it should be in five years time going off recent levels of inflation