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Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?
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According to Trading Economics forecast, core inflation is set to fall to 5.8% on annual basis and MoM to 0.4% in the figures to be released next Wednesday. I have my doubts.
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Have a look at how the annualised figure is comprised though, that is the real issue. There are a run of comparatively low monthly inflation figures from Jun-Oct 2022, but are likely to be replaced with higher ones in Jun-Oct 2023, that is where some of the major concern has come from, together with wage inflation being higher than expected. There is also an issue with non-core inflation starting to spill over into the core inflation figures as it puts upward pressure on wages.Strummer22 said:According to Trading Economics forecast, core inflation is set to fall to 5.8% on annual basis and MoM to 0.4% in the figures to be released next Wednesday. I have my doubts.0 -
Given we know 11/12 months data for the year to May, Trading Economics must be assuming a fall in the May month. We'll get the consensus forecasts next week but I found the below from a quick search.
From BRC website:
Period Covered: 01 – 07 May 2023. Non-Food inflation accelerated to 5.8% in May, up from 5.5% in April. This is above the 3-month average rate of 5.7%.
Autotrader shows slight tick down for May for used car prices:
To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0 -
Here begin the cries for help for those who overcommitted on their mortgage.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/jun/16/mortgage-rates-uk-government-urged-to-provide-emergency-help-costs-rising-nationwide-liberal-democrats-business-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-648bfde38f08abfd8db3db78#block-648bfde38f08abfd8db3db78
To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.1 -
Builders' merchant warns on profits:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/jun/16/mortgage-rates-uk-government-urged-to-provide-emergency-help-costs-rising-nationwide-liberal-democrats-business-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-648c0b948f087e45653fb00a#block-648c0b948f087e45653fb00a
Is it possible on here to do a poll for those who believe:
- property prices should be left to adjust to a natural level or kept at unaffordable levels, subsidised by taxpayers
- tax relief for mortgage interest is not enough, the taxpayer should give mortgage holders more money
To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0 -
It was only a question of time. I doubt they’ll be much the Government can do to prop up the housing market before the next General Election, and bringing MIRAS back is a no no. Frightening to see repossessions up 50% in the last quarter! I quite like the LibDems idea for targeted help to stop people losing their homes. Sensible idea.lojo1000 said:Here begin the cries for help for those who overcommitted on their mortgage.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/jun/16/mortgage-rates-uk-government-urged-to-provide-emergency-help-costs-rising-nationwide-liberal-democrats-business-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-648bfde38f08abfd8db3db78#block-648bfde38f08abfd8db3db780 -
Every piece of government help to mortgage holders has the effect of making housing more expensive and hence making the next generation of homeowners more financially vulnerable than the last and in turn the country more exposed to the next financial meltdown.lojo1000 said:Here begin the cries for help for those who overcommitted on their mortgage.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/jun/16/mortgage-rates-uk-government-urged-to-provide-emergency-help-costs-rising-nationwide-liberal-democrats-business-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-648bfde38f08abfd8db3db78#block-648bfde38f08abfd8db3db78
I know i'm not the only one who understands this but when oh when are the supposedly economically literate journalists going to start raising this as an issue.
The fact is, the older you are, the more chance you own a home and the less inclined you are to carry these views (on the whole).To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.2 -
So i'm told by my wife, who is considerably more informed on tax matters than me, there is no tax relief for mortgages any more!lojo1000 said:Builders' merchant warns on profits:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/jun/16/mortgage-rates-uk-government-urged-to-provide-emergency-help-costs-rising-nationwide-liberal-democrats-business-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-648c0b948f087e45653fb00a#block-648c0b948f087e45653fb00a
Is it possible on here to do a poll for those who believe:
- property prices should be left to adjust to a natural level or kept at unaffordable levels, subsidised by taxpayers
- tax relief for mortgage interest is not enough, the taxpayer should give mortgage holders more money
But I am also told BLT corporate landlords do get relief (which I don't understand), but I cannot imagine any govt giving them additional help.
Apologies for any confusion.To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0 -
Serious question, to draw a comparison. Would you also support financial help for renters who fall behind on their rent because the rent went up?Aberdeenangarse said:
It was only a question of time. I doubt they’ll be much the Government can do to prop up the housing market before the next General Election, and bringing MIRAS back is a no no. Frightening to see repossessions up 50% in the last quarter! I quite like the LibDems idea for targeted help to stop people losing their homes. Sensible idea.lojo1000 said:Here begin the cries for help for those who overcommitted on their mortgage.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/jun/16/mortgage-rates-uk-government-urged-to-provide-emergency-help-costs-rising-nationwide-liberal-democrats-business-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-648bfde38f08abfd8db3db78#block-648bfde38f08abfd8db3db78To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.1 -
Up to 750 from 500. I think in this case the absolute numbers are instructive, although of course if they continue to rise 50% quarter-on-quarter it won't be long until that number is actually frightening.Aberdeenangarse said:
Frightening to see repossessions up 50% in the last quarter!lojo1000 said:Here begin the cries for help for those who overcommitted on their mortgage.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/jun/16/mortgage-rates-uk-government-urged-to-provide-emergency-help-costs-rising-nationwide-liberal-democrats-business-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-648bfde38f08abfd8db3db78#block-648bfde38f08abfd8db3db784
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