Mortgage dilemma

nicmyles

Any thoughts on this one?

Current rate is 1.84%. Expires Nov, can book new rate from May.
Back in the summer, pre-mini budget, I decided to book a new 5yr rate of 3.09% - deferred to Feb, pending a large ERC. I can cancel this up until Feb.
That arrangement is overall the same/break-even as booking a 5yr rate of 4%, and then obviously savings increase the more the rate available in May-Nov 2023 is above 4%. So when rates then went up to 6%+, this looked a great plan, but it's become more marginal as they've dropped back down.

As things stand, I think it's still worth doing, for certainty even if it's now saving limited money - but some forecasts are now saying rates could be at 4% or lower by the summer, in which case this arrangement will have cost me money rather than saved it.

I realise no-one has a crystal ball, but which way would you bet on the wind blowing over the next few months?

MFWannabe

Personally I’d ride it out, 11 months is still a long time on 1.84% and I wouldn’t change early with an ERC

Yawn

Both mortgage and savings rates have been drifting down consistently over the past few months. Hard to know what the future holds, but it sounds like you would be more annoyed if your summer deal would end up costing you more? So I would hold off too as there likely isn't much in it.

But if I've misread your message and it's certainty you want then take the original deal.

dimbo61

Save save save !
Build up every penny you can in regular savers over the next 11/12 months and see what deals are available  come August/September.
You can use any savings to make a lump sum  payment then

Having said that 3.09% is now a good long term fix and gives you security IF you have no plans to move in the next 5+ years. 
Boe  rates may hit 4/4.5 % this year