Bank of England MPC meeting November 3rd 2022 - what are your predictions and how are you preparing 20 October 2022 at 9:48AM in Mortgages & endowments 106 replies 17K views

Big_Rock

0.5 probably 

mi-key

simon_or said:

My crystal ball says 0.5% bank rate rise and slightly better mortgage rates by mid/late Nov once a Sunak-Hunt govt. is bedded in.

We just need to hope they don't let Boris back !

Iamouttheotherside

With moody having just announced U.K. credit score to negative I'm saying 1% though realistically it should be 1.25%. 

MattMattMattUK

My guess is for 1.25% in November, followed by 1% at the following review bring Base Rate to 4.5%, at which point we are roughly in parity with The Fed and that goes some way to propping up Sterling. There can then be smaller rises next year where rates will sit between 5% and 6%, slowly dropping back in the years following.

Aberdeenangarse

Iamouttheotherside said:

With moody having just announced U.K. credit score to negative I'm saying 1% though realistically it should be 1.25%. 

The announcement by Moody’s has sealed an increase of 1% at least. Any less and the Markets tank.

tifo

Scorpio33 said:

Lots of it depends on political stability as well as the war in Ukraine, which is impossible to predict at the moment though.

The war in Ukraine is an excuse for everything that's going wrong ....

tifo

mi-key said:

At 2.25% interest rate, mortgage rates would normally be 4 - 4.25% There is no reason for them to be 6%.

When the BoE rate was 0.25% my mortgage rate was 4.49% and many SVR rates were around this, so 4% from 2.25%? At 2.25% my SVR rate is soon to be 6.49%.

housebuyer143

tifo said:

mi-key said:

At 2.25% interest rate, mortgage rates would normally be 4 - 4.25% There is no reason for them to be 6%.

When the BoE rate was 0.25% my mortgage rate was 4.49% and many SVR rates were around this, so 4% from 2.25%? At 2.25% my SVR rate is soon to be 6.49%.

Not really representative. SVR are renowned to be much higher than fixed rates normally. 

mi-key

With todays news, and with Sunak pretty much a shoe in now, I am thinking they may only do a small increase this time depending on how the markets respond to the more settled government. ( Pound has already risen against the dollar slightly )

While they want to reduce inflation, they don't want to kill off spending altogether and put us into recession. A small tester increase would be prudent to see how things go and how mortage lenders react, with the option of a larger one if needed later

MattMattMattUK

The markets, including mortgages have already priced in the rise and everyonenknows it will be going up over time anyway so they might as well get on with it. The markets are priced for around 5% by early to mid next year and they won't change if the bank slows the rate of increase as itneill get there in the end. 

We will already go into recession and Mortgage lenders have already reacted, that is why the cheapest mortgages are currently at 6% or more and won't be coming down for a few years.