Base Rate This Time Next Year?

PixelPound

VNX said:

Strummer22 said:

Aberdeenangarse said:

No one appears to have predicted 5.25% ?

This thread aged well! 

I didn’t clock the dates on the first postings and I thought it was a new thread I was reading it thing whaaaaat 🤣

Same here  and tbh it wouldn't surprise me if such a debate happened. Some will think we'll return to low rates within a year or two whilst others expect it to be higher for longer.

Strummer22

Well we can have a stab at it and revisit in Aug 2024.... I'm going to go for 4.75%

Maka344

Strummer22 said:

Well we can have a stab at it and revisit in Aug 2024.... I'm going to go for 4.75%

Lower, election forces will be at play... 

Strummer22

Maka344 said:

Strummer22 said:

Well we can have a stab at it and revisit in Aug 2024.... I'm going to go for 4.75%

Lower, election forces will be at play... 

Gov does not set the rates... merely "suggests" to the supposedly independent BoE what they want them to do ;-)

Maka344

Strummer22 said:

Maka344 said:

Strummer22 said:

Well we can have a stab at it and revisit in Aug 2024.... I'm going to go for 4.75%

Lower, election forces will be at play... 

Gov does not set the rates... merely "suggests" to the supposedly independent BoE what they want them to do ;-)

Strummer22 said:

Maka344 said:

Strummer22 said:

Well we can have a stab at it and revisit in Aug 2024.... I'm going to go for 4.75%

Lower, election forces will be at play... 

Gov does not set the rates... merely "suggests" to the supposedly independent BoE what they want them to do ;-)

Precisely my point

Sarah1Mitty2

Strummer22 said:

Maka344 said:

Strummer22 said:

Well we can have a stab at it and revisit in Aug 2024.... I'm going to go for 4.75%

Lower, election forces will be at play... 

Gov does not set the rates... merely "suggests" to the supposedly independent BoE what they want them to do ;-)

And then they do what the bond markets tell them to do - I`m going to go for 7%.

PixelPound

So 2 guesses at figures, neither near 3%. There seemed to be a few renewing last year taking 2 year deals to get over the hump.
I will say 5.75%. The rate is going to be sticking for a while and people are getting used to the rate. Political priority will be elsewhere. 

TerryTeacake

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

Strummer22 said:

Maka344 said:

Strummer22 said:

Well we can have a stab at it and revisit in Aug 2024.... I'm going to go for 4.75%

Lower, election forces will be at play... 

Gov does not set the rates... merely "suggests" to the supposedly independent BoE what they want them to do ;-)

And then they do what the bond markets tell them to do - I`m going to go for 7%.

The Bank of England is facing major losses on its bond purchases — and it's set to get much worse. This would mean much higher interest rates.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/08/30/bank-of-england-bond-losses-to-cost-government-20b-more-than-expected.html

Newbie_John

Anyway, based on the assumption that all the guesses here will wrong again - I need to say something very different to all - the rate on 31st of August 2024 will be 2.5%   

michaels

TerryTeacake said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

Strummer22 said:

Maka344 said:

Strummer22 said:

Well we can have a stab at it and revisit in Aug 2024.... I'm going to go for 4.75%

Lower, election forces will be at play... 

Gov does not set the rates... merely "suggests" to the supposedly independent BoE what they want them to do ;-)

And then they do what the bond markets tell them to do - I`m going to go for 7%.

The Bank of England is facing major losses on its bond purchases — and it's set to get much worse. This would mean much higher interest rates.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/08/30/bank-of-england-bond-losses-to-cost-government-20b-more-than-expected.html

Surely cutting interest rates would make the bond values increase and reduce the liability?!