Gov pension forecast seems high?

Avgeek

I check my Government pension annually and it was indeed this that helped push me to aim to retire at the end of this year aged 61.
As of May 2020 it says £210.59 per week - you cannot improve your forecast any more. The year prior it was around £205 per week so increasing ok. There is a COPE amount shown of £5.92 per week for the time I was contracted out in the 80's.  My worry is that if I don't have any taxable earnings (apart from the £12,500 personal allowance) from 2022 until 2026 this forecast will go down because I'm not paying any NI in those years.  
I have calculated everything out based on receiving a Gov pension of around £210.59 per week - plus any increases that may come along - but I have this fear that this might decrease if I don't contribute any more. I have 45 years NI payment records so all seems good there.
Any thoughts gratefully received. This forum is fantastic but it also makes me doubt things too!

coyrls

Avgeek said:

My worry is that if I don't have any taxable earnings (apart from the £12,500 personal allowance) from 2022 until 2026 this forecast will go down because I'm not paying any NI in those years. 

No, your forecast won't go down if you don't pay any more NI.  If you do pay more NI, it won't go up either (except for the standard triple lock increases, which will happen regardless of any NI payments).

Linton

If you were contracted in to SERPS/S2P/ASP for much longer than you were contracted out and had a reasonable income then it is quite possible that prior to April 2016 you accrued significantly more than the now standard SP.

One downside - beyond the annual inflation/2.5% increases any NI you pay now will not add to your SP.  Under the new rules excess NI doesnt benefit you, but wont lose any you gained prior to 2016 under the old rules.

molerat

As the amount is above the new pension maximum amount the statement is correct in that you cannot improve on it apart from the annual inflationary increases, triple lock on the current base £175.20 and CPI on the remaining protected amount.  Paying or not paying NI in future will not and cannot have any effect on that amount. You obviously had a reasonably well paid job pre 2016 and would have built up a good S2P / additional pension amount above the old basic pension amount which is currently £134.25.

Avgeek

Thanks again. As I say, this forum is fantastic but can also cause overthinking! 

xylophone

If you were contracted in to SERPS/S2P/ASP for much longer than you were contracted out and had a reasonable income then it is quite possible that prior to April 2016 you accrued significantly more than the now standard SP.

Indeed -

https://www.which.co.uk/money/pensions-and-retirement/state-pension/your-state-pension-and-benefits/state-second-pension-and-serps-ad9mc1v6fq6t

The maximum additional state pension you can get in 2020/21 is £179.41 a week (not including state pension top-up).

Thus it would be possible for a pensioner who had spent most of his working life under the old scheme to have a weekly SP of over £313 a week.