Tesla...

ukdw

If I'm not sure what to do I tend to either buy or sell half. That way you are hedging against either a gain or a rise.

AnotherJoe

Secret2ndAccount said:

This one's easy. You have made a massive gain in Tesla. Take out your initial investment and put it in something with a more predictable return. Then you are playing with the house's money. If Tesla doubles again, woohoo! If it halves, you still have all your original money, and a fair bit more.

Tesla's price is unjustifiable, but it has been for a long time, and it still keeps going up. So I don't think it's fair for anyone to say they can predict the future of Tesla stock wth any certainty. Remove the psychological stress by protecting your initial investment. Then you can enjoy the ride.

Only if you look in the rear view mirror or compare them to legacy ICE manufacturers.

They will be likely producing 6x the number of cars as now,  in just two years time.

And then perhaps double that 2 years later.

They have oodles of cash, they build new factories at 2x-3x the rate of other OEMs, no debts to speak of, and a demand problem thats nice to have, eg every single car they make is bought at list. Unlike the usual suspects they are not debt  ridden either. Nor full of stranded IP assets in the form of patents on ICE -  fuel injection exhausts turbos blah blah blah.

VW  boast  about 40k orders for the ID.3, Porche 20k for the Taycan, Tesla have 800,000 for just one of their models alone.

I think if Ford had a wait list of 800k orders for the new Mustang, their share price would  also be high. As it is they've crippled themselves with very modest production targets that are now set in stone for at least  2 years and having to fight for batteries with every other supplier. I dont think there is any equivalent in the ICE world for this limited resource.

Hyundai/Kia make excellent EVs but seemingly forgot to order enough batteries, Toyota recently splurged about their new solid state battery car - wont be available for about 5 years time meanwhile they burn money on a vanity H2 fuel cell project.

GM dont plan to produce a million EVs until 2025. Tesla will do that next year.

A couple years ago, Elon Musk said the one thing they never factored into all their business contingency plans was that legacy auto would be so poor at producing good EVs.

However, i do think you have a good plan for someone thats nervous,  "Remove the psychological stress by protecting your initial investment. Then you can enjoy the ride."

eg taking out the initial stake, maybe more, even half, and put it in something else thats more stable.

As you can see I"m very bullish on Tesla but i dont have all my pension in it ! Thats why i haven't bought more. And Ive just sold 20% of my Apple shares to help buy a house but the reason i chose that was, same issue, too many eggs in that one basket.. I'll probably long term lose money on that but you do have to be able to sleep at night and maintain a risk level that works for you.

 

p.s to the OP. Expect Tesla to rise substantially this week. Index funds still must buy an enormous amount of stock and most havent bought any yet as they are prohibited buying until 3 days before. Not all but most. Some of that rise will be diluted by people selling who bought in expectation of that  but it cant all be. There's a huge amount of buying still needed and a lot of shares locked up. So, if you were going to sell I'd wait until w/b 21st at teh earliest. One other factor, if Tesla hits its 500k production target then expect another rise in Jan. (or a fall if it doesnt) Currently its looking like it will.

My bet is 700 by end of the week, drop to 600-650 next few weeks, then 750 by late jan.

Thats prediction BTW is worth exactly what you've paid for it 

Secret2ndAccount

AnotherJoe said:

Tesla's price is unjustifiable,

Only if you look in the rear view mirror or compare them to legacy ICE manufacturers.

They will be likely producing 6x the number of cars as now,  in just two years time.

And then perhaps double that 2 years later.

They have oodles of cash, they build new factories at 2x-3x the rate of other OEMs, no debts to speak of, and a demand problem thats nice to have, eg every single car they make is bought at list. Unlike the usual suspects they are not debt  ridden either. Nor full of stranded IP assets in the form of patents on ICE

 

Dargh, you force me to rehash all the old Tesla pro/con arguments. All the above is good reason for TSLA to rise from $40 to $80. But not to $600. If everyone stopped buying fossil fuel cars tomorrow, and Tesla could suddenly manufacture 25 million EV's per year, then Tesla's price would be justified. Right now, there's no reason on Earth why Tesla should be worth more than Toyota, Honda, Ford, General Motors, VW, Audi, Porsche, Lamborghini, and Ferrari all added together.

Tesla doesn't make any money selling cars. They are not as good at production as the above listed manufacturers. They break even selling cars, and turn a profit because they collect EV credits. Basically Fiat pays Tesla to put an imaginary Fiat badge on each Tesla so that Fiat can meet its promised EV quota. That's a short term source of profit. Elon had better learn how to make a lot more cars at lower cost before the credits dry up.

p.s to the OP. Expect Tesla to rise substantially this week. Index funds still must buy an enormous amount of stock and most havent bought any yet as they are prohibited buying until 3 days before. Not all but most. Some of that rise will be diluted by people selling who bought in expectation of that  but it cant all be. There's a huge amount of buying still needed and a lot of shares locked up. So, if you were going to sell I'd wait until w/b 21st at teh earliest. One other factor, if Tesla hits its 500k production target then expect another rise in Jan. (or a fall if it doesnt) Currently its looking like it will.

My bet is 700 by end of the week, drop to 600-650 next few weeks, then 750 by late jan.

Thats prediction BTW is worth exactly what you've paid for it 

Tesla was almost admitted to the S&P500 last quarter, so some funds bought it back then. Everyone has known it's going in this time, so many funds have been buying it in advance. Many index trackers are free to use whatever instruments they choose to match the index, so they aren't bound to wait until it hits the index. There will also be those who bought it in the hopes it will rise on the 21st, and will sell on the 22nd. So a good proportion of the gains are already baked in. I do expect it to be higher this week, because it's higher every week.

Tesla is a wild, speculative stock. Buy it if you like rollercoaster rides, but don't bet your house on it.

AnotherJoe

Insane price action today. According to someone i trust the indexes still have not bought everything they need to , only 70m out of 120m shares bought so expect more crazyness on Mon-Wed (IIRC Wed is the last day indexes can buy it), eg 3 days either side

 

Ray_Singh-Blue

I'm seriously considering buying auto manufacturers. Not Tesla, but some of the others which together are worth less: Toyota, Honda, Ford, General Motors, VW, Audi.

£10K in each in my SIPP. A bet that at least one of them comes through to challenge Musk.

Thrugelmir

Tesla is the Betamax in the battle for video domination. Longer term mainstream will opt for the cheaper options. Faster charging solid state batteries are on the way.  

Secret2ndAccount

Ray_Singh-Blue said:

I'm seriously considering buying auto manufacturers. Not Tesla, but some of the others which together are worth less: Toyota, Honda, Ford, General Motors, VW, Audi.

Surprisingly, GM is worth a look right now. They have culled all their cheap cars and now concentrate on more profitable trucks and SUV's. They are also making some decent progress in self driving tech and electric vehicles. Good sales last quarter too.

AnotherJoe

Ray_Singh-Blue said:

I'm seriously considering buying auto manufacturers. Not Tesla, but some of the others which together are worth less: Toyota, Honda, Ford, General Motors, VW, Audi.

£10K in each in my SIPP. A bet that at least one of them comes through to challenge Musk.

I'm calling it now, £50k in those 4 (VW/Audi is one) will be worth less than £40k in 5 years time, and £40k in Tesla will be worth 5x. So  you'd be losing £160k. Ford, FWIW is currently losing money on every car they make. At current rate of spend they have 4 years left.

Thrugelmir said:

Tesla is the Betamax in the battle for video domination. Longer term mainstream will opt for the cheaper options. Faster charging solid state batteries are on the way.  

Youve been suckered in by Mr Toyoda's BS speech last week. Plenty of reasons it wont happen as far and fast as currently* hyped. But even if SS has the advantages that are currently touted, it has to reach the price, density and cycle life and cost** that Tesla's new batteries have and after that, there's no reason Tesla cant make their own SS batteries. Its not as if Tesla will be blindsided or cannot switch.

A final thought. If SS is "nearly" here from Toyota and has all teh advantages that are touted for it, why are they bothering with Fuel Cell cars that cost 5x to make and 5x to fuel compared to EVs?>

* no pun intended

** a factor thats always omitted from SS hy"breakthrough" messages.pe.

Ray_Singh-Blue

AnotherJoe said:

I'm calling it now, £50k in those 4 (VW/Audi is one) will be worth less than £40k in 5 years time, and £40k in Tesla will be worth 5x. So  you'd be losing £160k. 

Shsll we have a gentleman's wager? Currently the 5 biggest companies by market cap are: Saudi Aramco 1.7 trillion USD Microsoft  1.4 Apple 1.3 Amazon  1.2 Alphabet        0.9 They look like fun cars , but I bet a packet of wine gums and a toothbrush that in 5 years time Tesla won't be worth 3.3 trillion USD (5x current market cap). Loser posts said confectionery and dental hygiene products, to arrive by Christmas 2025. Or alternatively donates value of 1 share in Ford Motor company to a charitable cause.

Thrugelmir

AnotherJoe said:

Ray_Singh-Blue said:

I'm seriously considering buying auto manufacturers. Not Tesla, but some of the others which together are worth less: Toyota, Honda, Ford, General Motors, VW, Audi.

£10K in each in my SIPP. A bet that at least one of them comes through to challenge Musk.

I'm calling it now, £50k in those 4 (VW/Audi is one) will be worth less than £40k in 5 years time, and £40k in Tesla will be worth 5x. So  you'd be losing £160k. Ford, FWIW is currently losing money on every car they make. At current rate of spend they have 4 years left.

Thrugelmir said:

Tesla is the Betamax in the battle for video domination. Longer term mainstream will opt for the cheaper options. Faster charging solid state batteries are on the way.  

Youve been suckered in by Mr Toyoda's BS speech last week. Plenty of reasons it wont happen as far and fast as currently* hyped. But even if SS has the advantages that are currently touted, it has to reach the price, density and cycle life and cost** that Tesla's new batteries have and after that, there's no reason Tesla cant make their own SS batteries. Its not as if Tesla will be blindsided or cannot switch.

A final thought. If SS is "nearly" here from Toyota and has all teh advantages that are touted for it, why are they bothering with Fuel Cell cars that cost 5x to make and 5x to fuel compared to EVs?>

* no pun intended

** a factor thats always omitted from SS hy"breakthrough" messages.pe.

Tesla is a premium brand. Where's there mass market vehicle?