cFiresim New Update 1/12/20

westv

I didn't even realise it had been updated until I looked today. 

michaels

Can you run more than 10 scenarios now?

Link: http://www.cfiresim.com/

Not currently https but is due to be made so

westv

michaels said:

Can you run more than 10 scenarios now?

It says this in the info so that might help:-

• While there is currently no log-in feature, each simulation will give a link on the output page that will allow you to return to it.

westv

Looks like the ability to be able to ask it to automatically calculate the maximum initial spend from a given portfolio amount isn't there at the moment. 

michaels

Nor is guyton-klinger.  I also want to set a cash holding with a real return of -1% but this does nto seem to be possible.

jamesd

She is seeking suggestions on her twitter page, though with job, wife and two young children she surely has plenty of distractions.

michaels

I think she may also follow this thread and responds quickly to emails so there is potentially scope to steer the tool in a direction we might find most useful. - I want to be able to model cash holdings with a real rate of return rather than just nominal as you can in the SWR spreadsheet.

jamesd

She tried signing up for an account thanks to whoever emailed suggesting it. Might show up soon and as one of the more popular free tool authors she should be popular.

jamesd

Lauren tweeted that she was working on Guyton-Klinger over the weekend. She was surprised by how popular it is. Here are some reasons why I like it:

1. dynamic spending rules adjust both up and down for the sequence you live through
2. it starts out less pessimistic than non-dynamic methods, so it gives a better idea of what more ordinary rather than worst case sequences can provide

It's not as well suited to early FIRE but it fits well with the UK environment:
A. earliest private pension access at 55. Pot-based (defined contribution) allow 100% of the pot to be drawn but with 75% taxable much of pots over £150k would be taxed at 45%. But the whole tax free 25% can be taken as desired and the taxable part taken gradually. Salary based (defined benefit) pay lump sum and regular income (like annuity). Private sector versions can usually be exchanged for a lump sum that's currently often around 35 times income, driving lots of transfer and SWR discussions. £40k a year contribution limit, income tax added, refunded or a bit of each, depends on the specifics.
B. state pension (social security) age 66 rising to 68. Increases by 5.8% non-compounded for each year of delay. About £9,000 a year, inflation linked.
C. stocks and shares ISA is our way more generous version of the Roth IRA (IRA here means a terrorist group). After tax money in, tax free growth and 100% tax free withdrawable from the day you put the money in, £20k a year contribution limit.

Those rules shape the drawdown questions we see:
a. well below 55 doing planning, some for young FIRE
b. considering transferring out of DB aged 50+ or with non-transferrable DB wanting to know how to retire soon
c. over 60, wanting to know what to do, quite often with little accumulated beyond the state pension.

One big thing we don't need to think about is non-dental medical insurance. The single-payer NHS provides such a broad range of free good treatments, including no copay prescriptions from age 60, that something like Medicare gap cover is largely pointless. Non-NHS tends to be dental, cosmetic or otherwise of limited value in terms of established benefit. NHS rationing, to the extent it's done, tends to be in the form of queues for work that's not time-critical, though some work is done at later stages than it might be for a well-insured US person. Private treatment is normally available for such surgery if desired and affordable.

Lots of approximations in this post since it's intended just to give a US person a high level picture.

jamesd

michaels said:

Not currently https but is due to be made so

Now uses https even if http used originally.

cfw1994

The health costs are a massive difference.  I have US buddies who need to consider thousands every year for their healthcare into retirement.
I must revisit cfiresim over the Christmas break!