Long term economic impact of mass early retirement ?

iamnotasoldier

Hi All
Something I was thinking about whilst browsing this forum & seen various posts from people aiming to retire early - mid to late 50s. Now I know it's not ONS level data set & research, but it seemed most people were aiming to be retired early & got me wondering about if there could be ticking demographic time bomb, with substantial implications for the economy, tax revenues etc esp after the pandemic & record levels of borrowing/spending. I was just curious to hear people's thoughts on what might be 10-20-30 years down the line, with the aging population etc ? Will be there a surge of the part time early retiree army ? Will the exit from the EU put even more strain on the labour market, help create a perfect storm ?

tibbles209

You need to bear in mind that this forum is in no way representative of the general population. The early retirement wannabes on this forum are on this forum because they are early retirement wannabes, and their preparations for this put them into a very small minority. The large majority of the population are woefully underprepared to fund retirement even from state pension age, with no real hope of retiring early at all. I don't think this is going to be a major issue in the foreseeable future. 

Norman_Castle

I'd suspect 30 years ago many people aimed to retire early. I wonder what proportion achieved it?

comeandgo

I can only agree with tibbles.  I retired early but only one of my friends has done so too, all other friends and family work on.  Very few people retire early.

iamnotasoldier

Yeah good point re this forum, which I sort of thought about when I was mentioning it not be ONS level research ! It would be interesting to see the changes & splits in retirement ages that have happened over the last say 20 years and see how they progress over the next 20, as the generations change, and if there is generally different attitudes to planning for retirement.

iamnotasoldier

Connected straw poll : On those have retired early, or planning to do so, how many are planning to totally give up paid employment ? How many still planning to work part time or part of the gig economy ?

Anonymous101

Firstly I agree that this forum is not representative of the population by a long shot. Anecdotally I'd suggest people are less prepared now than ever for retirement despite auto-enrolment and that most people will actually have to work beyond retirement as their provisions do not meet their expected spending requirements.

With regards to early retirement I actually look at it as the opposite, assuming you mean early as in pre-55. I think that if people reach a level of financial stability sooner than traditional retirement age they are much more likely to start a business or engage in some other form of economic activity which would resulting in taxation and possibly create employment for others too.

iamnotasoldier

Anonymous101 said:

With regards to early retirement I actually look at it as the opposite, assuming you mean early as in pre-55. I think that if people reach a level of financial stability sooner than traditional retirement age they are much more likely to start a business or engage in some other form of economic activity which would resulting in taxation and possibly create employment for others too.

Good point about the early retirees starting other work etc. It is quite common. Other good point is what is early retirement - is it anything sub-NSP age ?  

[Deleted User]

We are already seeing the impact. When Bismarck introduced pensions, they started from the age beyond the a average life expectancy.  Today its very different. Fewer and fewer workers in the developed world relative to the size of population. They are supporting more and more “retirees”.  

Is it any wonder the mountain of debt is growing as most countries are slowly moving in the general direction of bankruptcy? 

And if the phenomenon happens worldwide, if production is constrained by the size of the labour force then the outcome will be inflation.  

Anonymous101

iamnotasoldier said:

Anonymous101 said:

With regards to early retirement I actually look at it as the opposite, assuming you mean early as in pre-55. I think that if people reach a level of financial stability sooner than traditional retirement age they are much more likely to start a business or engage in some other form of economic activity which would resulting in taxation and possibly create employment for others too.

Good point about the early retirees starting other work etc. It is quite common. Other good point is what is early retirement - is it anything sub-NSP age ?  

I don't think so. I probably go against the majority here, but personally I class any age you can access SIPP's or take a DB pension as regular retirement.

Marcon

Anonymous101 said:

iamnotasoldier said:

Anonymous101 said:

With regards to early retirement I actually look at it as the opposite, assuming you mean early as in pre-55. I think that if people reach a level of financial stability sooner than traditional retirement age they are much more likely to start a business or engage in some other form of economic activity which would resulting in taxation and possibly create employment for others too.

Good point about the early retirees starting other work etc. It is quite common. Other good point is what is early retirement - is it anything sub-NSP age ?  

I don't think so. I probably go against the majority here, but personally I class any age you can access SIPP's or take a DB pension as regular retirement.

I don't think many people would see 55 (the current minimum age) as 'regular retirement'.

As for the idea of mass early retirement...forget it. People won't be able to afford it. Mass unemployment possibly, but that's rather different.