Pension recovery performance 2020

Nickolai

I think taking into account the additional contributions made since March with my current SIPP and Worksave pensions I’m pretty much where I was. My frozen DC scheme is valued on the 1st April each year  you can imagine what that looked like. 

Another_Saver

Broken by a data continuity break. Still, it shouldn't materially affect the conclusions I drew if annualised over 63 years. I haven't been able to find what the size of the market cap "jump" was at the point the change was applied.

 I have still presented a model of stock index returns as a sum of GDP and 3 other random variables, allowing for a relationship without correlation.
And I have shown correlation between real GDP and real stock index prices.
And I have shown stock indices lag GDP over the long run, and explained both in my model and using data to answer your specific US example, divergences over periods. I.e. 1990-2020 us nominal GDP growth 4.53%, S&P 7.85%, PE change (temporary) added 1.67%, and corporate profits expanded from 4.5-9.2% of GDP if using Q4'89-Q4'19 data so 2.41% annualised (also temporary). Discounting these, as is necessary to do because otherwise you assume variables that hover around a long term average and theoretically cannot rise or fall indefinitely do not do that, leaves 3.85% EPS growth, below the GDP figure.

Sources page 19 of the thread.

I'm more interested in the FTSE 250s 2.88% capital concentration, as I call it, and how long I think it can last.