What did the smart pension money do when values dropped in March/April?

itwasntme001

How much of Buffet's performance is attributable to his public market investments and how much from the rest?

[Deleted User]

itwasntme001 said:

Deleted_User said:

No, Buffett is not a “market timer”.  He invests for the long term.  Nor would I bet against him.  He has achieved annual returns almost double of the index over 35 years, gaining thousands more percent over that period.   Of course, he has major advantages vs a retail investor.   10 years isn’t important. His advice and strategy have been consistent. 

To be a good investor, you need to be a good market timer.  Buffet has obviously done well for a long time.  It remains to be seen whether Berkshire will continue to.

He doesn't just invest in public equities where information is generally widely available (and therefore market timing becomes more important).  He also invests in private investments where he has an edge.

Market timers are bad at investing. Buffett is the exact opposite of a market timer. If you want to make up a new term - fine, but don’t use the ones which already exist and are well defined. 

itwasntme001

Deleted_User said:

itwasntme001 said:

Deleted_User said:

No, Buffett is not a “market timer”.  He invests for the long term.  Nor would I bet against him.  He has achieved annual returns almost double of the index over 35 years, gaining thousands more percent over that period.   Of course, he has major advantages vs a retail investor.   10 years isn’t important. His advice and strategy have been consistent. 

To be a good investor, you need to be a good market timer.  Buffet has obviously done well for a long time.  It remains to be seen whether Berkshire will continue to.

He doesn't just invest in public equities where information is generally widely available (and therefore market timing becomes more important).  He also invests in private investments where he has an edge.

Market timers are bad at investing. Buffett is the exact opposite of a market timer. If you want to make up a new term - fine, but don’t use the ones which already exist and are well defined. 

Then you need to broaden your mind a bit more.  When people hear of market timing they automatically think of day traders or technical analysis or buying when a new trend is formed etc.

Why can't that definition be broadened to stock pickers who are buying a portfolio of stocks and who are looking to make a profit and will eventually have to sell - that is market timing.

Buffet got his timing wrong with airlines and Wells Fargo.  He sold too late or he never should have bought in the first place.

But credit to him, he TIMED his purchases of Goldman Sachs during the GFC with amazing results.

Why do you think he holds so much cash?  Because he is TIMING the market waiting for better opportunities.

He is very much a market timer.

Thrugelmir

itwasntme001 said:

How much of Buffet's performance is attributable to his public market investments and how much from the rest?

Berkshire Hathaway is a multinational industrial conglomerate. Not purely an investment business as often gets portrayed.  

For somebody that has owned a huge slice of Coca Cola for four decades. Hardly can be described as a market timer. 

[Deleted User]

itwasntme001 said:

Deleted_User said:

itwasntme001 said:

Deleted_User said:

No, Buffett is not a “market timer”.  He invests for the long term.  Nor would I bet against him.  He has achieved annual returns almost double of the index over 35 years, gaining thousands more percent over that period.   Of course, he has major advantages vs a retail investor.   10 years isn’t important. His advice and strategy have been consistent. 

To be a good investor, you need to be a good market timer.  Buffet has obviously done well for a long time.  It remains to be seen whether Berkshire will continue to.

He doesn't just invest in public equities where information is generally widely available (and therefore market timing becomes more important).  He also invests in private investments where he has an edge.

Market timers are bad at investing. Buffett is the exact opposite of a market timer. If you want to make up a new term - fine, but don’t use the ones which already exist and are well defined. 

Then you need to broaden your mind a bit more.  When people hear of market timing they automatically think of day traders or technical analysis or buying when a new trend is formed etc.

Why can't that definition be broadened to stock pickers who are buying a portfolio of stocks and who are looking to make a profit and will eventually have to sell - that is market timing.

Buffet got his timing wrong with airlines and Wells Fargo.  He sold too late or he never should have bought in the first place.

But credit to him, he TIMED his purchases of Goldman Sachs during the GFC with amazing results.

Why do you think he holds so much cash?  Because he is TIMING the market waiting for better opportunities.

He is very much a market timer.

There already is a term for active investment, so there is no need to misuse a completely different word. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockpick.asp

Buffett gained hundreds of percentage points and billions of dollars on Wells Fargo. He sold because the management didn’t listen to him. His company’s investment time horizon is a lot longer than yours.  Still, you should provide your valuable  criticism to Warren Buffett. I am confident he will be happy to learn if you point out where exactly he went wrong. 

itwasntme001

Thrugelmir said:

itwasntme001 said:

How much of Buffet's performance is attributable to his public market investments and how much from the rest?

Berkshire Hathaway is a multinational industrial conglomerate. Not purely an investment business as often gets portrayed.  

For somebody that has owned a huge slice of Coca Cola for four decades. Hardly can be described as a market timer. 

Indeed, that is why it is important to differentiate between Berkshire's success between public equity investments and the rest, when discussing things about public markets alone, where information is generally available.

Buying a huge slice of Coca Cola for the long term is still saying "it will outperform the rest of the market" so you are getting into market timing because at some point it will be a time to sell because at that point it will start to underperform the market.

itwasntme001

Deleted_User said:

itwasntme001 said:

Deleted_User said:

itwasntme001 said:

Deleted_User said:

No, Buffett is not a “market timer”.  He invests for the long term.  Nor would I bet against him.  He has achieved annual returns almost double of the index over 35 years, gaining thousands more percent over that period.   Of course, he has major advantages vs a retail investor.   10 years isn’t important. His advice and strategy have been consistent. 

To be a good investor, you need to be a good market timer.  Buffet has obviously done well for a long time.  It remains to be seen whether Berkshire will continue to.

He doesn't just invest in public equities where information is generally widely available (and therefore market timing becomes more important).  He also invests in private investments where he has an edge.

Market timers are bad at investing. Buffett is the exact opposite of a market timer. If you want to make up a new term - fine, but don’t use the ones which already exist and are well defined. 

Then you need to broaden your mind a bit more.  When people hear of market timing they automatically think of day traders or technical analysis or buying when a new trend is formed etc.

Why can't that definition be broadened to stock pickers who are buying a portfolio of stocks and who are looking to make a profit and will eventually have to sell - that is market timing.

Buffet got his timing wrong with airlines and Wells Fargo.  He sold too late or he never should have bought in the first place.

But credit to him, he TIMED his purchases of Goldman Sachs during the GFC with amazing results.

Why do you think he holds so much cash?  Because he is TIMING the market waiting for better opportunities.

He is very much a market timer.

There already is a term for active investment, so there is no need to misuse a completely different word. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockpick.asp

Buffett gained hundreds of percentage points and billions of dollars on Wells Fargo. He sold because the management didn’t listen to him. His company’s investment time horizon is a lot longer than yours.  Still, you should provide your valuable  criticism to Warren Buffett. I am confident he will be happy to learn if you point out where exactly he went wrong. 

Not criticising him at all, just saying what he is, a good market timer generally speaking.

You can call it active investing if it makes you feel better, but at the end of the day its just another name for market timing

Prism

I don't think applying the term market timing to all active investing and multinational conglomerates is especially helpful - basically anyone that buys anything that isn't the global index. That would also suggest that anyone using something like the MCSI  World index is market timing because they are purposely not selecting the MCSI All Country World index - which itself is not complete since it ignores frontier markets( if you are purposely not investing in Vietnam are you market timing?). There is no default index.

itwasntme001

Prism said:

I don't think applying the term market timing to all active investing and multinational conglomerates is especially helpful - basically anyone that buys anything that isn't the global index. That would also suggest that anyone using something like the MCSI  World index is market timing because they are purposely not selecting the MCSI All Country World index - which itself is not complete since it ignores frontier markets( if you are purposely not investing in Vietnam are you market timing?). There is no default index.

I think it is because of people's perception of the term market timing as being an awful way to invest and how terrible it is for your finances, especially around these forums.

The thing is when you move away from a global allocation, you are overweighting something at the expense of under-weighting something else, so you are making a market timing call whether you like it or not and whether you plan to hold for 1 year or 100 years.

As I said nothing wrong with timing the market per se.

There are reasons why many active managers fail eventually.  Ask yourself why you hold managed funds run by people who started these funds only within the last 10-15 years and not 30 years for example?

Because things change beyond anybody's control and vision and no matter how good stock A or stock Z looks today, it can still be miserable investments going forward.

Prism

itwasntme001 said:

Prism said:

I don't think applying the term market timing to all active investing and multinational conglomerates is especially helpful - basically anyone that buys anything that isn't the global index. That would also suggest that anyone using something like the MCSI  World index is market timing because they are purposely not selecting the MCSI All Country World index - which itself is not complete since it ignores frontier markets( if you are purposely not investing in Vietnam are you market timing?). There is no default index.

I think it is because of people's perception of the term market timing as being an awful way to invest and how terrible it is for your finances, especially around these forums.

The thing is when you move away from a global allocation, you are overweighting something at the expense of under-weighting something else, so you are making a market timing call whether you like it or not and whether you plan to hold for 1 year or 100 years.

Maybe that is the case. Everyone selects their fund of choice for one reason or another over another fund. The trouble is that is everybody - so everyone is a market timer - which kind of makes the term pointless.

What is a global allocation?