Investing for Decumulation - Recommended Reading

numpty_dumpty

It looks like I may be moving from accumulation to decumulation. I want to look at sorting out my existing portfolio into something sensible for decumulation. Can anyone recommend any good reading for the amateur investor. I'm likely to DIY as it's got me this far although with more luck than judgement, so perhaps time to educate myself a little.

BritishInvestor

Tim Hale: Smarter Investing: Simpler Decisions for Better Results

Lars Kroijer: Investing Demystified: How to create the best investment portfolio whatever your risk level

Larry Swedroe & Jared Kizer: The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need: The Good, the Flawed, the Bad, and the Ugly

Abraham Okusanya: Beyond The 4% Rule: The science of retirement portfolios that last a lifetime

Greg Zuckerman: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution

Albermarle

numpty_dumpty said:

It looks like I may be moving from accumulation to decumulation. I want to look at sorting out my existing portfolio into something sensible for decumulation. Can anyone recommend any good reading for the amateur investor. I'm likely to DIY as it's got me this far although with more luck than judgement, so perhaps time to educate myself a little.

As far as I can see from reading on this forum , many people do not seem to make a specific change at the point of changing over, as often the basic objective remains the same . For most people some derisking as you get older is normal but this would normally start before retirement and continue on a gradual path afterwards, rather than some sudden step change . Are you maybe facing an earlier retirement than you anticipated ?

numpty_dumpty

Albermarle said:

As far as I can see from reading on this forum , many people do not seem to make a specific change at the point of changing over, as often the basic objective remains the same . For most people some derisking as you get older is normal but this would normally start before retirement and continue on a gradual path afterwards, rather than some sudden step change . Are you maybe facing an earlier retirement than you anticipated ?

Yes, poor health means it looks like I will be making an early exit.

Seldonista

Well by the same principle that lump sum investing works better than drip feed 2/3 of the time, so too is the inverse true when decumulating. Around the dot-com bubble Jack Bogle's heart was failing (fortunately we had almost another 20 years to hear his wisdom) and he moved from his usual 70-80% stocks portfolio into 25-30% stocks. That's where you get the least volatility and if you're going to go any lower you may as hold cash.

Thrugelmir

What does your exiting portfolio consist of?  Isn't clear by "DIY" if you've invested in passive trackers (thereby passing the investment decisions elsewhere) or are actively managing your portfolio. 

TBC15

I’ve been retired for just over a year and didn’t change my investment strategy ( 100% market no bonds) coming up to retirement apart from building up a cash buffer of about 4 yrs of cash.

The remarks of BritishInvestor gave me cause to revisit the 4yr cash buffer comfort blanket part of my plan. I’m now reasonably convinced my supper king size is a bit over the top and a double (1-2ys expenditure) would be more appropriate.

I found this article very helpful https://edrempel.com/reliably-maximize-retirement-income-4-rule-safe/

AnotherJoe

Same as TBC15, eg no change.

green_man

TBC15 said:

I’ve been retired for just over a year and didn’t change my investment strategy ( 100% market no bonds) coming up to retirement apart from building up a cash buffer of about 4 yrs of cash.

The remarks of BritishInvestor gave me cause to revisit the 4yr cash buffer comfort blanket part of my plan. I’m now reasonably convinced my supper king size is a bit over the top and a double (1-2ys expenditure) would be more appropriate.

I found this article very helpful https://edrempel.com/reliably-maximize-retirement-income-4-rule-safe/

Yes it’s an interesting article and seems to be based on similar research to  this:
https://investmentmoats.com/financial-independence/why-having-a-cash-buffer-does-not-increase-the-longevity-of-wealth-in-financial-independence/
...or at least they reach similar conclusions.

I have brought up this research several times in threads,  including the recent thread about how much cash to keep in retirement. Yet pretty much all the ‘experienced’ investors here don’t seem to take it on board and I’ve not heard one person say they will use a 100% equity (or even 90% or 80%) in retirement as they deem it too risky, despite  this research suggesting it is in fact less risky.

Thrugelmir

A poor opening sequence of returns may never be recovered from. Permanent capital loss is the risk. Given we are at the early stages of the greatest global economic downturn since the industrial revolution.  I'm sure there'll be a fair few new books and theories written once the crisis has past. 

TBC15

green_man said:

TBC15 said:

I’ve been retired for just over a year and didn’t change my investment strategy ( 100% market no bonds) coming up to retirement apart from building up a cash buffer of about 4 yrs of cash.

The remarks of BritishInvestor gave me cause to revisit the 4yr cash buffer comfort blanket part of my plan. I’m now reasonably convinced my supper king size is a bit over the top and a double (1-2ys expenditure) would be more appropriate.

I found this article very helpful https://edrempel.com/reliably-maximize-retirement-income-4-rule-safe/

Yes it’s an interesting article and seems to be based on similar research to  this:
https://investmentmoats.com/financial-independence/why-having-a-cash-buffer-does-not-increase-the-longevity-of-wealth-in-financial-independence/
...or at least they reach similar conclusions.

I have brought up this research several times in threads,  including the recent thread about how much cash to keep in retirement. Yet pretty much all the ‘experienced’ investors here don’t seem to take it on board and I’ve not heard one person say they will use a 100% equity (or even 90% or 80%) in retirement as they deem it too risky, despite  this research suggesting it is in fact less risky.

Apologies for not reading your contributions and not taking it onboard. One thing I took from the article was that products such as VLS x unless it’s 100% are a complete waste of time in this day and age. I’m sure they had a use when there was a line in the sand i.e. you must buy an annuity on this date, but those days are long since gone.