It’s different this time

silvertooth

Thailand and other tropical areas have it just as bad

the only benefit is the virus won’t stay contagious on surfaces in the sun

apart from that there is not much difference 

the other side of the coin is that in warmer weather people go out more which increases the R0, but in the cold weather people tend to stay in more

which all means the doubling of cases in 6 days could be reduced to double every 5 or less days as people go out more in the nicer weather 

it always goes case, case, cluster, cluster BOOM

Getting_greyer

Is the UV/contagion backed by science?

Sailtheworld

Getting_greyer said:

Is the UV/contagion backed by science?

Yes and no. Viruses are killed by UV, heat & humidity so places like Thailand (contrary to what Silvertooth has heard on YouTube) seem to have been less badly affected. However, the effect probably isn't that big and, possibly, there's under-reporting in Thailand.

If it's anything like flu (it's close enough) what will happen is cases fall in the summer because people will be less close contact as we spend less time indoors. It's far more likely that any virus will be passed on indoors because the volume of air being shared is smaller. Humidity tends to be higher outside rather than in. 

Probably why people were 'prescribed' fresh air in years gone by. Increases the volume of air for infection dispersal and it makes you feel better too.

People tend to be at a lower ebb during the winter months. Most people die during the winter months and I'd wager 2020 won't be much that much different. 



  

LHW99

And as the peak goes through the herd immunity will build up, so by the autumn there should be fewer people susceptible anyway, and hopefully by the time the winter comes on there will be knowledge / experience on which antivirals are most useful and we could be thinking about getting manufacturing geared up for an effective vaccine.

silvertooth

Sailtheworld said:

Getting_greyer said:

Is the UV/contagion backed by science?

Yes and no. Viruses are killed by UV, heat & humidity so places like Thailand (contrary to what Silvertooth has heard on YouTube) seem to have been less badly affected. However, the effect probably isn't that big and, possibly, there's under-reporting in Thailand.

If it's anything like flu (it's close enough) what will happen is cases fall in the summer because people will be less close contact as we spend less time indoors. It's far more likely that any virus will be passed on indoors because the volume of air being shared is smaller. Humidity tends to be higher outside rather than in. 

Probably why people were 'prescribed' fresh air in years gone by. Increases the volume of air for infection dispersal and it makes you feel better too.

People tend to be at a lower ebb during the winter months. Most people die during the winter months and I'd wager 2020 won't be much that much different. 



  

It’s actually the exact opposite of what you say

in the colder months people don’t go out and mix as much

on the warmer months people tend to go out and mix with others even more

LHW99

silvertooth said:

LHW99 said:

And as the peak goes through the herd immunity will build up, so by the autumn there should be fewer people susceptible anyway, and hopefully by the time the winter comes on there will be knowledge / experience on which antivirals are most useful and we could be thinking about getting manufacturing geared up for an effective vaccine.

there is no building up immunity to some of these novel viruses 

But for Covid-19........

https://sciencespeaksblog.org/2020/02/12/immune-survivors-of-covid-19-protective-antibody-for-treatment-and-prophylaxis/

Sailtheworld

silvertooth said:

Sailtheworld said:

Getting_greyer said:

Is the UV/contagion backed by science?

Yes and no. Viruses are killed by UV, heat & humidity so places like Thailand (contrary to what Silvertooth has heard on YouTube) seem to have been less badly affected. However, the effect probably isn't that big and, possibly, there's under-reporting in Thailand.

If it's anything like flu (it's close enough) what will happen is cases fall in the summer because people will be less close contact as we spend less time indoors. It's far more likely that any virus will be passed on indoors because the volume of air being shared is smaller. Humidity tends to be higher outside rather than in. 

Probably why people were 'prescribed' fresh air in years gone by. Increases the volume of air for infection dispersal and it makes you feel better too.

People tend to be at a lower ebb during the winter months. Most people die during the winter months and I'd wager 2020 won't be much that much different. 



  

It’s actually the exact opposite of what you say

in the colder months people don’t go out and mix as much

on the warmer months people tend to go out and mix with others even more

In the colder months people don't go out and mix as much so they're confined in smaller spaces - I agree. Think about it - if the same amount of people are in less space is there a higher or lower density of people? It's not a trick question.

It's therefore more likely they'll infect their nearest and dearest because the aerosols they generate don't have as far to travel and there's less volume of air to disperse them. 

In the summer people go out more but you are very unlikely to infect someone else 50m away having a picnic if you sneeze in their direction.

In places like Thailand there's less of a seasonal peak in flu but it does spike in the rainy season when people crowd together inside. 

Sailtheworld

silvertooth said:

LHW99 said:

And as the peak goes through the herd immunity will build up, so by the autumn there should be fewer people susceptible anyway, and hopefully by the time the winter comes on there will be knowledge / experience on which antivirals are most useful and we could be thinking about getting manufacturing geared up for an effective vaccine.

So far they are saying this virus is very similar to HIV, and like AIDS once you have it you have it for life

there is no building up immunity to some of these novel viruses 

you can still live a longish life but you have the virus and it can cause problems now and then

Nobody is saying this at all.

People with HIV consistenly test positive for HIV. People who have Covid-19 are ill, their immune system fights it off and then they test negative. The virus is absent from their system and they are left with antibodies which offer some protection from further infection. It's how immunisation works - if enough people are immune to a disease it's very difficult for the disease to spread. i.e. immunisation can protect those who are immune as well as those who aren't.

People like you were spreading, and still are, false information about things like the MMR jab - it's bad enough that they risk their kids lives but their imbecilic behaviour risks the lives of others too.