Pension providers allowing active management of investments

Thrugelmir

intalex said:

I'm generally trying to anticipate movements based on what's happening or might happen in the world. 

The markets will react to the news before you do. There's always an exchange open somewhere in the world. 

bostonerimus

intalex said:

 I'm generally trying to anticipate movements based on what's happening or might happen in the world. I'm not looking for sharp growths, but if I could try and grow my pot +1% per week on average, that would be something... 

You are vastly over optimistic on both counts.

DairyQueen

intalex said:

but if I could try and grow my pot +1% per week on average, that would be something... but of course I appreciate it could go down just as easily.

+1% per week on average? Over what period do you anticipate outperforming every stock market in the world, and by such a significant factor? 1 year? 10 years? 20? 30?

I would be happy to bet against you making a positive return over any one-year period, and I'm not a gambler. Indeed, I would go as far as betting on the extent of your losses and over much shorter periods.

Single-share investing is very high risk and best left to those with sufficient time, skill and experience to undertake specialist research into fundamentals. That excludes most of we amateurs. Day trading is off the risk scale even for the majority of experienced amateurs. What you are proposing will require a megathon of fund research every day with an IMF level of economic and political understanding. Even then you won't be able to time any market. Note that IMF forecasts are rarely correct.

I assume you have a 24/7 trading mechanism in order to instantly respond to world events. The shares held by your collective funds will continue to trade whilst you are deep in slumberland, having dinner, working or walking the dog. 

Will you be transacting asset classes? regions? sectors? themes? something else? Or do you intend to spread bet the entire market on a daily basis?

Have you factored-in transaction costs? Do you know how and when different types of collective funds are priced?

What is your aim?

Investing?  (A long-term, medium-risk strategy to protect capital from inflation. Historically, a diversified portfolio will exceed inflation over a 10+ period).

Saving?  (A short-term, low-risk method of preserving capital. Real value will be eroded by inflation over time).

Day trading? (Short-term, very high risk of capital loss. Gambling.).

Notepad_Phil

intalex said:

I'm not looking for sharp growths, but if I could try and grow my pot +1% per week on average, that would be something... but of course I appreciate it could go down just as easily. 

That would be a stupendous outperformance if it were possible, unfortunately it's not - at least not on a long term basis if you're already invested in a sensible set of funds. That's something like 67% over a year.

Andrew31

50% down by Christmas??

DairyQueen

Andrew31 said:

50% down by Christmas??

Probably more. I'm no expert but know enough to anticipate that my equity portfolio could drop 50+% when/if the market suffers a full-blown crash. And that's without the potential for loss using OP's strategy.

OP: It's good that you are taking an interest in your investments but this crazy idea is guaranteed to lose you money. Sometimes forumites need to be a little harsh to deter those who are heading for the cliff. If you are serious about taking control of your retirement pot then you need to research and understand conventional wisdom before challenging it courtesy of an ill-informed lightbulb moment.

This forum is an excellent way to begin researching and to build knowledge and confidence. Part of the process involves criticism. It's meant kindly although it doesn't feel comfortable to be on the receiving end. 

MarkCarnage

intalex said:

Thanks tactpot12, good suggestions - I was actually hoping to hop around between different funds rather than individual equities (with "cash park" allowing for temporary exit during high volatility). I'm generally trying to anticipate movements based on what's happening or might happen in the world. I'm not looking for sharp growths, but if I could try and grow my pot +1% per week on average, that would be something... but of course I appreciate it could go down just as easily. For example, I had wanted to make a couple of out-and-back-in moves in the last few weeks on the same fund but couldn't because of absence of a cash park, but had I been able to, I'd have grown the pot > +2% in just 2 moves.

This is a strategy doomed to failure. You will only provide income to those who make money from transactions. Your 'strategy' seems a cross between global macro and tactical asset allocation. What makes you think that you can profit from it when many others with much more resource and economies of scale have tried and failed. 

MarkCarnage

Part of the problem is that the phrase 'active management' seems to be equated with day trading or similar by many. Many of the best active equity managers have very low turnover in their portfolios. High turnover only keeps brokers in yachts, and is a sign IMO anyway, of a poor fundamental process. Very often the best decision is to do nothing. 

DairyQueen

MarkCarnage said:

Part of the problem is that the phrase 'active management' seems to be equated with day trading or similar by many. Many of the best active equity managers have very low turnover in their portfolios. High turnover only keeps brokers in yachts, and is a sign IMO anyway, of a poor fundamental process. Very often the best decision is to do nothing. 

Agreed. I've learned that to my cost on several occasions. Notwithstanding the moment when the realisation hit of the risk I was then taking with single share investing. Gulp. I hit the floor running on that memorable occasion.

Sailtheworld

intalex said:

Thanks tactpot12, good suggestions - I was actually hoping to hop around between different funds rather than individual equities (with "cash park" allowing for temporary exit during high volatility). I'm generally trying to anticipate movements based on what's happening or might happen in the world. I'm not looking for sharp growths, but if I could try and grow my pot +1% per week on average, that would be something... but of course I appreciate it could go down just as easily. For example, I had wanted to make a couple of out-and-back-in moves in the last few weeks on the same fund but couldn't because of absence of a cash park, but had I been able to, I'd have grown the pot > +2% in just 2 moves.

Over 30 years Warren Buffett has achieved 15% per year. Additionally the S&P returned 9.5% so all the work he's put in has 'only' been for a 5.5% annual return over passively tracking the S&P. 
You're planning on beating his annual returns in a week. If you start today with $1000 you should be the World's richest person on 14th December 2024.