Drawdown Pension Growth

AlanP_2

MrDinosaur wrote: »

Just tried your figures - Pension runs out at 91.

So you know your probable worst case scenario then.

As I said we have a good income level from DBs and SPs so the investment money is for the icing on our cake.

I'd be a lot less relaxed if all we had was an investment pot.

Brilley

coyrls wrote: »

With those assumptions, will you ever be able to retire?

..thanks but I retired 3 years ago?

coyrls

Brilley wrote: »

..thanks but I retired 3 years ago?

With just a DC pension? It's hard to see how you could sustain an inflation linked pension from investments with the assumption that your real return is -3% per year.

cfw1994

WannabeEdouard wrote: »

Is there a ready made blank spreadsheet available that i can download and use for drawdown/growth figures? Save doing one as I am lazy

you have a message with my funky spreadsheet link - let me know what you think, if it helps or is just massively confusing :rotfl:

& cfiresim is also a VERY useful resource, as Deleted_User said earlier!

Brilley

coyrls wrote: »

With just a DC pension? It's hard to see how you could substain an inflation linked pension from investments with the assumption that your real return is -3% per year.

..thanks but I am not taking any pensions at the mo. I aim to start taking them in about 3 years, then state pension a year later. In my spreadsheet model I have based everything on a percentage of inflation. eg state pension worst case 80% of inflation, savings and investments 25% of inflation etc. I can play around with these ratios giving various "best / worst" case scenarios....

WannabeEdouard

cfw1994 wrote: »

you have a message with my funky spreadsheet link - let me know what you think, if it helps or is just massively confusing :rotfl:

& cfiresim is also a VERY useful resource, as Deleted_User said earlier!

Thanks very much will take a look over weekend when i have some time. Much appreciated.

ggmf

If set my end date as 95 years, cfiresum (Guyton-Klinger) suggests that with my DB, DC and state pensions (when they all kick-in), I should be OK (94.59% Success rate, 1 failure), My spreadsheet suggests that with 3% inflation, variable draw-down (as the DB's and SP kick-in), 0% growth or drops in the SIPPs performance over time, and allowing 1% increase in DB's and SP, that my SIPP will deplete by age 87 (not taking into account the cash buffer that I hold). I just do not seem to be able to muster the confidence to do the final jump!

tigerspill

cfw1994 wrote: »

you have a message with my funky spreadsheet link - let me know what you think, if it helps or is just massively confusing :rotfl:

& cfiresim is also a VERY useful resource, as Deleted_User said earlier!

Just wondering if you would mind sharing it to myself as well?

Mistermeaner

In my model i took todays outgoings (excluding mortgage which will be gone by then) and added a few quid ; it's basically 18k today

I have from today inflated by 3% year on year to give my outgoings forecast into the future

I'm 40 and by the age of 90 that number is scary

In addition to this i have column for 'one off' expenses which rotates at 2k, 5k, 2k, 10k, 3k and repeats - this is to cover those one off discretion ary things like cars and holidays

These numbers are my 'draw down' amounts each year from 57 onwards

To cover this expenditure we have 4 pots ; mine and Mrs sipps and our Lisa's

We know the balance of these today and assume the pots grow at 2% per annum (so 1% per annum less than inflation in outgoings) + they grow with what we're planning to pay in

At 4 points in the future these pots become available (starting with my pension age 58)

It's pretty straight forward to then chart an annual total balance of the 4 pots LESS the expected outgoings in that year and watch the balance decline to penniless poverty

I leave the percentages alone and instead play with the amounts we are paying into the pots to work out what is required to fund retirement without running out of cash (Mrs grandma is still alive at 95) so I've used Mrs age 100 as the drop dead date

It's quite telling how much we need to save , but it's by no means unachievable - as I mentioned I'm 40 and my pension is currently at 320k, our Lisa's and Mrs pension give us another 50k so we're at 370k today with another 18years investment and growth to go - currently we are putting at least 50k a year into our pots

Current forecast suggests i could stop working age 50 once youngest kid starts high school provided Mrs goes back to work and earns at least 25k and she works until 55

I think we've been conservative in assumptions and it's quite reassuring that we look to be on a good path

cfw1994

tigerspill wrote: »

Just wondering if you would mind sharing it to myself as well?

You should have a message!