What will average house prices need to fall to for the next generation to buy own home?

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

But future buyers will have to fix at a higher rate, how does that help someone hoping to cling on to bubble price gains now? There is no "graft" in buying just before a credit bubble takes off to the moon and expecting the returns to always be there.

It's sad that you don't listen to those who have done better than you

Low interest rates make waiting for a crash stupid

You can get a five year fix for what? 2%? Or opt to pay rent for 6%
So over the five years you are 5 X 4% = 20% better off buying

You need a nominal crash of more than 20% to make renting the smart choice
Over 5 years add inflation and it would be a 30% real crash

So your bet is a bet that house prices will crash 30% in real terms
Any less and your a loser
If you time it wrong, so prices go up 10% first then you need a 40% real crash

As you can see waiting for a crash is stupid

GreatApe

RealElement47 wrote: »

If the couple start a family then they would almost certainly want another baby a few years after the first. Nobody wants an only child.

And if they have two they often want to have at least another one.

This could be upto ten years or at least several years of the mum not working all that much.

It's a very recent change to have two incomes, it always used to be one

This is a myth

You can look at the UK censuses

Women have always worked in very large numbers

chucknorris

GreatApe wrote: »

It's sad that you don't listen to those who have done better than you

Low interest rates make waiting for a crash stupid

You can get a five year fix for what? 2%? Or opt to pay rent for 6%
So over the five years you are 5 X 4% = 20% better off buying

You need a nominal crash of more than 20% to make renting the smart choice
Over 5 years add inflation and it would be a 30% real crash

So your bet is a bet that house prices will crash 30% in real terms
Any less and your a loser
If you time it wrong, so prices go up 10% first then you need a 40% real crash

As you can see waiting for a crash is stupid

Sometimes I do wonder, where he is mentally, does he really believe what he posts? Or is he permanently on 'tilt' and he knows that he has totally messed things up financially.

GreatApe

chucknorris wrote: »

Sometimes I do wonder, where he is mentally, does he really believe what he posts? Or is he permanently on 'tilt' and he knows that he has totally messed things up financially.

Most HPC cheerleaders are poor and don't realise it

I believed in a HPC for about 2 years 2007-2008 but the timing is coincidence I just happened to graduate in 2007 and looking at houses they looked really overpriced because you know a kid with nothing thinks he should be able to instantly own the average house....:rotfl:

Luckily I grew out of it as I earned more and more and when I look back I realise I was poor but at the time I thought I was average. Maybe I was average or just above average for my 21 year old age but I was poor relative to the average UK citizen who would have equity dual incomes inherited money business money not just the income from a first job

Thrugelmir

RealElement47 wrote: »

If the couple start a family then they would almost certainly want another baby a few years after the first. Nobody wants an only child.

And if they have two they often want to have at least another one.

In the developed world the population is forecast to fall (after peaking in the not too distant future). As couples are having children at below the replacement rate to sustain the level of population. There's plenty of research on the topic. There was a logic behind Merkel's open door invitation to immigrants.

spadoosh

RealElement47 wrote: »

If the couple start a family then they would almost certainly want another baby a few years after the first. Nobody wants an only child.

And if they have two they often want to have at least another one.

This could be upto ten years or at least several years of the mum not working all that much.

It's a very recent change to have two incomes, it always used to be one

Ive got an only child. Barring a massive mistake were planning on it remaining that way. I definitely will not be having 3.

I work full time, my wife works full time and this is pretty typical of my generation, or those around my age who have children anyway. She had 12 months maternity leave and beyond that we use childcare and family members. A few of the women i know do 7/8 over 10 so might fall in the part time bracket. Out of all the couples with kids i know theres only 2 where the man is the main earner. One is p/t self employed (flexible working for the childcare) and the others earns quite a lot its just her fella earns £100k +.

AG47

Thrugelmir wrote: »

In the developed world the population is forecast to fall (after peaking in the not too distant future). As couples are having children at below the replacement rate to sustain the level of population. There's plenty of research on the topic. There was a logic behind Merkel's open door invitation to immigrants.

Yes the populations are falling in developed lands.

Europe has lots of folks moving in, but they don’t have any money.

It’s a good job there is water between us and the EU.

We actually have people leaving more than coming in, thanks to brexit debacle

Yet the number of new homes being added to supply is still increasing every year.

Who will live in all these new homes?

Will they all be air b&b?

westernpromise

AG47 wrote: »

We actually have people leaving more than coming in, thanks to brexit debacle

*sigh*

An estimated 258,000 more people came to the UK with an intention to stay 12 months or more than left in the year ending December 2018 (net migration). Over the year, 602,000 people arrived in the UK (immigration) and 343,000 people left the UK (emigration).
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2019

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

We actually have people leaving more than coming in, thanks to brexit debacle

I call fake news.
ONS figures show net immigration running at 1/4 million and has not dropped.
What has changed in that it’s fewer EU and more non EU but still roughy the same overall.

Who will live in all these new homes?

See above immigration plus smaller households (smaller families).

Whilst you don’t seem to take any notice of the fact that you won’t get away with new user names and making stuff up, well just have to keep on correcting your misinformation.
Do you really think any will listen to failures and take your advice?

I do listen but to people who’ve done well. I only listen to losers to avoid their mistakes.

snowqueen555

If prices fell 20% I'd be able to get the cheapest two bed flats available (£150k+) where I am. Economically that is my best bet, I can let out a room.

I can just about afford a 1 bed flat (start at £120k) but I would be paying around 35% salary on mortgage and then around 30-35% on bills (total 60% minimum).

Bills are a big factor , I would have to factor in some £300-£400 a month for bills on top of a mortgage, it just isn't doable or economical unless I am in a 2+ bedroom and can share costs.

Most leasehold flats are charging £75-£100 a month for management fees also.