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The UK grid is already solved we do not need more mass PV/Tidal/Nuclear/Wind

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GreatApe
GreatApe Posts: 4,452 Forumite
edited 8 July 2019 at 6:16PM in Green & ethical MoneySaving
The UK grid is solved in the near future with what exists, what is under construction and what is committed to

The UK does not need new nuclear or mass PV or tidal, the UK needs and has needed additional interconnectors for 30+ years fortunately many will come online over the next 5 years including 2 lines in the next 12 months.

3.4GW to France under construction 2GW additional to this likely
2.8GW to Norway under construction and likely
Combined will result in a net ~ 50TWh/Yr additional imports of green energy displacing NG

The near future UK grid will be roughly as follows

~11% domestic nuclear (1 existing reactor + the two new ones under construction. The AGRs all closed down. Result is nuclear contracts considerably but still provides a decent contribution)
~13% French nuclear imports (7.4GW links to France)
~6% Norway Hydro imports (2.8GW links to norway)
~6% Ned/Bel/Den imports (3.4GW links)
~35% offshore wind power (30GW @ average 45% CF by 2030)
~9% onshore wind power
~3% PV
~2% UK hydro
~15% combination of Biomass and Natural Gas

As you can see, there is not much room in the grid for more of anything when the only thing left to displace are 16% from Natural gas and biomass. And since you can not choose when the wind blows or when the sun shines adding more wind or PV does not solve this 16% and will mean most likely adding more PV or wind will 84% of the time just result in less imports of mostly green power or curtailment of wind/pv rather than displace this remaining 16% from biomass and NG

We could also see more links (quite likely) to France/Germany/Norway/Other which will further reduce this 16% from biomass/Natural-gas

The grid is solved
Transport energy will be solved globally (mostly thanks to software) not by the UK
Heating is the next big challenge
«1345

Comments

  • Robin9
    Robin9 Posts: 12,799 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    GreatApe wrote: »
    Transport energy will be solved globally (mostly thanks to software) not by the UK
    Heating is the next big challenge

    I am not so confident as you.

    I think there are two issues - one grid, the second is local distribution.

    AIUI the grid demand is still a December evening between 4 and 7 when industrial,commercial and domestic demands combine. Throw in a time of low supply from wind power and there will be power cuts.

    In my days as design engineer for a local distribution company we were designing housing estates to a property demand of less than 1.5kw. What are the requirements of electric battery charging - 8-9-10 kw ? Over what time 5-6 hours ? Just think of all those cars coming home at4,5 or 6 o'clock and plugging in. Those mains I designed will be inadequate - the only ones that will be OK are the 1960's ones when fantastic load growths were predicted.
    Never pay on an estimated bill. Always read and understand your bill
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 15,394 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Robin9 wrote: »
    I am not so confident as you.

    I think there are two issues - one grid, the second is local distribution.

    AIUI the grid demand is still a December evening between 4 and 7 when industrial,commercial and domestic demands combine. Throw in a time of low supply from wind power and there will be power cuts.

    In my days as design engineer for a local distribution company we were designing housing estates to a property demand of less than 1.5kw. What are the requirements of electric battery charging - 8-9-10 kw ? Over what time 5-6 hours ? Just think of all those cars coming home at4,5 or 6 o'clock and plugging in. Those mains I designed will be inadequate - the only ones that will be OK are the 1960's ones when fantastic load growths were predicted.

    Remember to allow for averaging, assuming all UK cars become BEV's, then based on average mileage you'll see approx 550W demand over a 10hr night charge per car.

    But on the bigger issue you are right, we have approx 35% generation from RE, and nuclear falling from 20% to 7% (as old generation closes and HPC comes on line). When you include storage losses, and for brief periods perfectly acceptable curtailment/spill (cheapest option), then we probably need to build out to about 120% of the much higher future demand for leccy with BEV's and space heating (heatpumps).
    Mart. Cardiff. 8.72 kWp PV systems (2.12 SSW 4.6 ESE & 2.0 WNW). 20kWh battery storage. Two A2A units for cleaner heating. Two BEV's for cleaner driving.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Robin9
    Robin9 Posts: 12,799 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    Remember to allow for averaging, assuming all UK cars become BEV's, then based on average mileage you'll see approx 550W demand over a 10hr night charge per car.

    .


    Don't forget that this battery charging is on top of the usual domestic demand - kettles, fridges, lighting etc. These are falling as we use better rated appliances but are still significant.
    Never pay on an estimated bill. Always read and understand your bill
  • GreatApe
    GreatApe Posts: 4,452 Forumite
    5% of UK generation can be provided if Heysham 2 and Torness nuclear power stations are not closed in 2030

    2% of UK generation can be provided if Dungeness B is not closed in 2028 as planned

    5% of UK generation can be provided if Hartlepool and Heysham I are not closed in 2024 as planned

    4% of UK generation can be provided if Hinkley Point B & Hunterston B are not close din 2023 as planned


    All of those reactors are discounted and assumed closed in the previous post.
    So we can/will go towards ~84% non fossil in 2030 even without those reactors.

    But I think they are worth keeping/extending for at least 5 more years than currently planned
    Only way they are likely not to close is if a CFD is offered to keep them going
    Might need as little as £40/MWh and it is more or less 100% spent in the UK unlike wind farms or PV panels

    Especially the reactors due to close 2023/2024 will be a big hit to non fossil generation, they should certainly be extended by 6 years to give time for the offshore wind target of 30GW to be reached. These 5 year extensions also give time to see how the transport/heating sector develop over the 2020s. It would be a shame to kick out 30 TWh of UK nuclear in 2023/2024 to then find electricity demand booms 2024-2030 due to electrification of transport and or heating
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 15,394 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Robin9 wrote: »
    Don't forget that this battery charging is on top of the usual domestic demand - kettles, fridges, lighting etc. These are falling as we use better rated appliances but are still significant.

    On top of night time baseload yes, but unlikely lighting and kettles etc. so when averaged out, far less than peak evening demand. And speaking of which, with smart charging, plugged in BEV's could be supporting the grid during peaks, and recharging during nightime low demand periods ...... or perhaps that should be previously low demand periods.
    Mart. Cardiff. 8.72 kWp PV systems (2.12 SSW 4.6 ESE & 2.0 WNW). 20kWh battery storage. Two A2A units for cleaner heating. Two BEV's for cleaner driving.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • GreatApe
    GreatApe Posts: 4,452 Forumite
    Robin9 wrote: »
    I am not so confident as you.

    I think there are two issues - one grid, the second is local distribution.

    AIUI the grid demand is still a December evening between 4 and 7 when industrial,commercial and domestic demands combine. Throw in a time of low supply from wind power and there will be power cuts.

    In my days as design engineer for a local distribution company we were designing housing estates to a property demand of less than 1.5kw. What are the requirements of electric battery charging - 8-9-10 kw ? Over what time 5-6 hours ? Just think of all those cars coming home at4,5 or 6 o'clock and plugging in. Those mains I designed will be inadequate - the only ones that will be OK are the 1960's ones when fantastic load growths were predicted.


    That is plenty. 1.5KW average demand = 13,140 KWh a year while the average property uses something like 3,300 KWh of electricity leaving a spare 9,840 KWh which is well in excess of the ~2,000 KWh an average car doing the average 8,000 miles would need

    Regarding heating it is more difficult task for the local grid for sure
    But this can be controlled to convert homes only for where the local infrastructure can handle it without upgrade or where the upgrades are lower cost

    I think average heating demand in the UK is about 10,000 units of gas, but you are likely to only need 7,000 units of electricity for the same amount of heat as gas boilers are not 100% efficient

    Again you can convert millions of homes to electrical heating.
    You might have to cap it so it is for instance on an average street just 1 in 3 homes but that is still 10 million homes you can convert in the UK. It might be a problem in the future but not for a long long long time. Plus you can be smart and convert the smaller more efficient homes so make it perhaps 1 in 2 homes or 15 million homes


    Plus for EVs my guess is they will be smart self drive fleet EVs that go charge at a local supercharger with a strong connection so will not add to the last mile grid.
  • GreatApe
    GreatApe Posts: 4,452 Forumite
    But on the bigger issue you are right, we have approx 35% generation from RE, and nuclear falling from 20% to 7% (as old generation closes and HPC comes on line). When you include storage losses, and for brief periods perfectly acceptable curtailment/spill (cheapest option), then we probably need to build out to about 120% of the much higher future demand for leccy with BEV's and space heating (heatpumps).

    There is no point planning intensively beyond 10 years out because of the rapid development of software. Software will mean a headline of perhaps 150 TWh of electricity needed for transport (cars vans buses HDVs) could be lower than 50 TWh with software allowing much more efficient designs (like 10 miles per KWh cars with twice as many average passengers per vehicle mile)
    and nuclear falling from 20% to 7% (as old generation closes and HPC comes on line)

    UK nuclear generation does not fall to 7% anytime soon and there is a chance the old UK reactors could get life extensions as has already happened and would be more likely if a CFD is offered

    Plus the UK is finally building out the much needed links to France so we will import a lot more nuclear power From France. The UK will very likely have 7.4GW links to France before 2024. Two of the new links are coming online in the next 12 months another under construction and one about to start and more might be built post 2025
  • GreatApe
    GreatApe Posts: 4,452 Forumite
    Anyway can people try limit mostly to the original topic

    The UK is already headed towards ~85% non fossil generation pretty soon
    So there is no need for mass onshore-wind, PV, new nuclear, Tidal etc

    2030 will roughly be
    ~11% domestic nuclear
    ~25% imports
    ~35% offshore wind power (30GW @ average 45% CF by 2030)
    ~9% onshore wind power
    ~3% PV
    ~2% UK hydro
    ~15% combination of Biomass and Natural Gas

    15% will be from biomass and NG but this last 15% is not easy to solve

    Additional Nuclear or Tidal or PV or Wind will not solve it since most of the time their output will be outside of this 15% of the time when we need it most. More Interconnectors will help so any additional subsidy should mostly go towards interconnectors (esp to Norway) not to onshore wind or PV or new nuclear
  • GreatApe
    GreatApe Posts: 4,452 Forumite
    2027 will roughly be
    ~18% domestic nuclear
    ~25% imports
    ~28% offshore wind power (24GW @ average 45% CF by 2030)
    ~9% onshore wind power
    ~3% PV
    ~2% UK hydro
    ~15% combination of Biomass and Natural Gas

    So as early as 2027 the UK grid is solved with 85% of generation from non fossil fuels
    That is just 7 years away. We do not need new tidal or nuclear or onshore wind power when we have already solved the problem with what exists, what is under construction and what is committed to

    2027-2030 will see UK domestic nuclear replaced by offshore wind

    What is needed is to change focus to building out additional HVDC links to France and Norway
    And for a sufficient carbon floor price
    And perhaps to extend the life of the UK old reactors dependent on what electricity demand does 2025-2030 if there is no increase then close the nukes but if electricity demand is increasing in the 2020s then its best to extend the old nukes 5 years and make another assessment five years down the road
  • bengalknights
    bengalknights Posts: 5,021 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts
    GreatApe wrote: »

    ~13% French nuclear imports (7.4GW links to France)
    ~6% Norway Hydro imports (2.8GW links to norway)
    ~6% Ned/Bel/Den imports (3.4GW links)


    We could also see more links (quite likely) to France/Germany/Norway/Other which will further reduce this 16% from biomass/Natural-gas

    I sense a European collective punishment coming to prevent this happening.
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