Will the next generation be able to buy their own house?

Herzlos

DannyGold wrote: »

This country is bankrupt because it can never repay its debt, all it can do is go further and further into debt
If this country is on its knees then property will definitely crash

Mortgages have involved a significant stress test for a while now, so people are less likely to be completely overextended (as per the 2008 crash). The only way property prices will crash if is no-one can afford to buy or maintain their mortgage, and that'll require a recession deep enough that only the lucky and/or wealthy will be able to capitalize on it.


Say there's a huge recession and house prices drop by the 50% some HPCr's need to break even. Do you think the banks will lend on an asset dropping that hard? Do you think someone with millions or billions in investment won't just start buying them up to cash in on the recovery?

westernpromise

Herzlos wrote: »

Say there's a huge recession and house prices drop by the 50% some HPCr's need to break even.

The lucky ones. Crashy is over 100% by now. He can never, ever break even.

Herzlos wrote: »

Do you think the banks will lend on an asset dropping that hard? Do you think someone with millions or billions in investment won't just start buying them up to cash in on the recovery?

My work here is done. If you want to know who'll own property after a crash, look at who owned it before.

RealElement47

Davy_Jones_II wrote: »

Everyone seems very pessimistic here. I’m not seeing it myself. I was out in Canary Wharf at the weekend and the Christmas shopping was all going on while later on the bars and restaurants were quite full.

At the airport thus morning for my flight to work it’s as busy as ever, and the large extension is continuing to grow.

There are just some people who’ll always see doom. Get up each day, do your best, keep improving yourself, and life can continue to be just fine.

It depends what you mean by pesimistic in line with the question posed by his thread.

I am very optimistic that the next generation will be able to buy their own homes a lot easier than this generation can.

But I suppose my optimism is pessimism to you is it not?

AlanHobbs

Definitely going to be a lot more difficult, bought my house back in 2004 for around £110k, same house is now worth around £280k

phillw

westernpromise wrote: »

The lucky ones. Crashy is over 100% by now. He can never, ever break even.

As long as house prices become so volatile that he can buy low, sell high and repeat it a few times then he could. It's not likely but...

triathlon

DannyGold wrote: »

Lower property prices are a step in the right direction

But yes there is no doubt we are in a dire situation you are right about that

There are very low house prices in Iraq, Bolivia, Mordovia, in fact they are bordering on giving away property and land, so so cheap. Using your life model you would be in heaven in a place like these.

Malthusian

phillw wrote: »

As long as house prices become so volatile that he can buy low, sell high and repeat it a few times then he could. It's not likely but...

Nice thought but that isn't the scenario that HPinCels are banking on. They don't believe that house prices are going to undergo a period of frequent booms and busts (allowing them to buy low, sell high, buy several houses low, sell high, buy lots of houses low and so on until their genius market timing has made them rich).

They believe that house prices are somehow inherently too high, which they justify with irrelevant ratios like multiples of national average earnings or yearly incidents of piracy. In other words, the HPC fantasy is that prices will crash and then stay there, or at least increase by inflation only post-crash.

A temporary crash (the kind we are all used to) where prices crash temporarily and then recover doesn't help HPC, because as any fule kno homeowners and landlords just sit on their properties until prices recover. It has to be a permanent crash to make bust landlords and overstretched homeowners sell their homes to HPC for buttons.

So it will not be possible to recover 100%+ Breakeven Crash Ratios by repeatedly selling and buying over multiple crash cycles. In HPCland, prices will crash and then that will be it, HPinCels will buy their cheap 3-bed semi from a ruined Brad and everyone will live happily ever after, except the Brads. But those who have spent more in rent than they save thanks to the crash will still in reality have screwed themselves.

Zero_Sum

AlanHobbs wrote: »

Definitely going to be a lot more difficult, bought my house back in 2004 for around £110k, same house is now worth around £280k

My old house is worth about the same now (possibly even a bit less) than it was in 2004

The-Joker

Zero_Sum wrote: »

My old house is worth about the same now (possibly even a bit less) than it was in 2004

Is that nominal or inflation adjusted?

Zero_Sum

The-Joker wrote: »

Is that nominal or inflation adjusted?

Nominal. So if I adjust for inflation it is actually worth less