Will the next generation be able to buy their own house?

lisyloo

The-Joker wrote: »

High speed trains will mean many people will be able to commute into work from far away and will free up a lot of property in and around London

How could this not lower prices?

Currently our trains are expensive and crowded to the point you may not get a seat during commuting hours.

Why do you think any of

1) High costs (maybe times two for a couple)
2) Standing up in a crammed environment
3) Several hours wasted every day

Will be attractive? Yes people will do it if they can justify the costs, but the people who can afford it will still prefer to not do this travel, therefore there will be demand for london and prices will stay high.

Yes there may be a shift, but it’s not going to be a seismic shift in terms of 8 million people.

Also please note the door-to-door
I have a high speed service of 75 mins, but time getting to the station is 25 at one end and 50 At the other, so in this case total time is double.
The time getting across London is not reduced by having a high speed services (could be increased slightly by more commuters).

Herzlos

It's certainly a disgrace that it's cheaper to drive than get the train - we should be doing much better on rail fare (and likely need to take the franchises back into the public purse for that - Holland I think is making public transport completely free from next year). Ditto for being cramped.


I get the train to work as a preference. It takes me longer to get the train than drive, but I can work on the train whilst I can't work in the car. Ergo the train lets me be more productive, and bunk off earlier on a Friday.


I honestly doubt we'll do much with mass transit since we're too short-termist. I think the big disruptor will be telecommuting - why drag people into an expensive office in an expensive city centre to sit on Microsoft Office all day, when they could do it at home for less? We're already seeing hot-seat offices, and various business units being outsourced to cheaper areas.


By all means keep an office presence in London for customers, but you don't really need to make your support and sales staff spend any real time in there. Given the opportunity to work from anywhere with a decent enough internet connection, how many people would still chose London? I'd be off to the Highlands.

lisyloo

Herzlos wrote: »

I honestly doubt we'll do much with mass transit since we're too short-termist. I think the big disruptor will be telecommuting - why drag people into an expensive office in an expensive city centre to sit on Microsoft Office all day, when they could do it at home for less? We're already seeing hot-seat offices, and various business units being outsourced to cheaper areas.

We’ve had the internet and even broadband and fibre for some time now.
I’m sure things would be even worse in London if a % weren’t working from home, but I’m not sure what would be the precursor to it improving now.

Many people doctors, nurses, hotel, restaurant, bank, shop staff and some office people cannot work from home.
Even in offices there are data security, collaboration issues and in some companies simply trust (that’s not a good reason but still we shouldn’t ignore the reality).

By all means keep an office presence in London for customers, but you don't really need to make your support and sales staff spend any real time in there. Given the opportunity to work from anywhere with a decent enough internet connection, how many people would still chose London? I'd be off to the Highlands.

That depends where your sales meetings are doesn’t it?
That last company I worked for in London had very London centric customers, so sales people didn’t specifically have to be in the office but most of their meetings would still be in the city.

I currently work a job which can be 100% remote, but there are some other accounts which (for valid reasons) are 0% remote.

Yes technology is improving but what makes you think there will be any paradigm shift right now? We’ve had the internet for quite a number of years.

Thrugelmir

lisyloo wrote: »

Yes technology is improving but what makes you think there will be any paradigm shift right now? We’ve had the internet for quite a number of years.

Corporations have been teleconferencing since the days of 9/11. Hasn't reduced the amount of unneccessary travel though. Particularly across Europe.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Corporations have been teleconferencing since the days of 9/11. Hasn't reduced the amount of unneccessary travel though. Particularly across Europe.

I've been using teleconferencing since around then, and we're leagues ahead in terms of functionality and quality. I remember conferences where you can't even tell who's in the room. Now many people can work completely seamlessly.


It's naive to claim that travel hasn't been reduced due to teleconferencing in the last 20 years. I avoid travel on a weekly basis for it.

Herzlos

lisyloo wrote: »

Yes technology is improving but what makes you think there will be any paradigm shift right now? We’ve had the internet for quite a number of years.

Cost. We've now gone from bearable internet to many people having plenty of bandwidth (Virgin Media does up to about 400mbit), so working remotely is a lot more feasible for staff and businesses than it was 10 years ago. We can dump call centres anywhere we want now and wire in a backbone connection. Some staff can work from home for some part of their day.

lisyloo

Herzlos wrote: »

Cost. We've now gone from bearable internet to many people having plenty of bandwidth (Virgin Media does up to about 400mbit), so working remotely is a lot more feasible for staff and businesses than it was 10 years ago. We can dump call centres anywhere we want now and wire in a backbone connection. Some staff can work from home for some part of their day.

I agree with all of that.
I just don’t see how it’s going to make a big difference all of a sudden.

As you say people have been working from home for 15+ years and it’s increased as broadband and fibre has improved.
It’s not a new thing at all.

Herzlos

lisyloo wrote: »

I agree with all of that.
I just don’t see how it’s going to make a big difference all of a sudden.

As you say people have been working from home for 15+ years and it’s increased as broadband and fibre has improved.
It’s not a new thing at all.

It's becoming more popular and will eventually hit a critical mass where staff will be able to work almost entirely from home. The last few places I've interviewed for have all mentioned allowances to work from home, which seems to be a new thing. Companies are trying to be more streamlined and nimble.


I'm not saying it'll happen overnight, but in the next decade I reckon it will be unusual to make staff commute into a central office from 9-5 and do stuff they could have done from a satellite office / shared space / home office. I think it needs to happen in an attempt to deal curb environmental damage and congestion.

lisyloo

I’d like the benefits but I don’t agree we’re on the edge on a paradigm shift.
Well just have to agree to disagree maybe.

There are loads of jobs - bus drivers, waiters, chefs, shop workers that this simply doesn’t apply to and some office jobs which for various reasons need people to travel whether to a fixed office or not e.g. sales, pre sales, or secure environments.

My sister cuts grass and looks after a park for the council, she’s always joking about working from home.

It will increase I’m sure I’m just not convinced it’s significant and if it is why are we building cross rail, hs, new runway at Heathrow ????
And not investing in connectivity instead.

If it were true it would be an strong argument against a new runway and hs2.

Sailtheworld

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm not saying it'll happen overnight, but in the next decade I reckon it will be unusual to make staff commute into a central office from 9-5 and do stuff they could have done from a satellite office / shared space / home office. I think it needs to happen in an attempt to deal curb environmental damage and congestion.

I don't think employers trust their employees for it to really take off anytime soon.