Has anyone seen any problems in their local economies that suggests a recession is coming

triathlon

For several weeks now I have had various conversations with various industries and people on how they are struggling with orders and work, Just had a conversation with some top end builders who have dried up with a few of them taking a long summer break abroad and making the most of it, and hoping things will be better in the Autumn. I know a few retailers and friends in the food industry and they have been hit for quite a while now.

Looks like Brexit fears are finally hitting home, how can this country be so stupid, lets just pray we come to our senses before it gets worse. Thank God I am in the BTL game, the last place people will cut back will be the roof over their head. I suspect a recession is heading our way by the end of 2019/start of 2020. Has anyone else seen any warning signs?, it seems to be hitting so many areas now, even the trades, plumbers, chippies and sparks who I know a lot of and who you can never tie down are finding things a little tougher which is a shocker for me. But looking on the bright side I can start fishing around more for cheaper prices now.

movilogo

Estate Agents are shutting down but that's no bad thing

Recession happened inside EU. So even if it happens outside EU what's big deal?

itwasntme001

Where are your BTL investments? Im looking to buy some outside of London. Best to wait for prices to drop?

lisyloo

itwasntme001 wrote: »

Where are your BTL investments? Im looking to buy some outside of London. Best to wait for prices to drop?

Does it stack up in the areas you are looking to buy?
What’s the yield?
And how does that compare to doing no work and have someone manage a diversified portfolio for you?

itwasntme001

lisyloo wrote: »

Does it stack up in the areas you are looking to buy?
What’s the yield?
And how does that compare to doing no work and have someone manage a diversified portfolio for you?

I've been looking at Leeds. Yields are around 6-7%. I expect significant capital growth as well long term with businesses moving there and HS2 as well as other investment going into the city.

Carl31

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/retail-sales-annual

Using retail as an indicator, these numbers seem to suggest increased confidence in spending, vs last year

https://themreport.com/daily-dose/06-04-2019/did-national-home-prices-increase-in-april

Adding some HPI, that doesnt look too bad either

So to the recession - no?

triathlon

itwasntme001 wrote: »

Where are your BTL investments? Im looking to buy some outside of London. Best to wait for prices to drop?

North Herts and South Cambs, but forget it, prices will never drop, just look at immigration numbers alone, 300k per year and no sign of a slow down, sorry

triathlon

lisyloo wrote: »

Does it stack up in the areas you are looking to buy?
What’s the yield?
And how does that compare to doing no work and have someone manage a diversified portfolio for you?

I don't think he was being serious, just another one of those cultists hoping for the property crash that will never come

lisyloo

itwasntme001 wrote: »

I've been looking at Leeds. Yields are around 6-7%. I expect significant capital growth as well long term with businesses moving there and HS2 as well as other investment going into the city.

Why would you wait for price to drop in a rising market?
The fundamental i.e. immigration + population increase are good for the long term aren’t they? And if your local knowledge stacks up then you should go for it ASAP. Trying to time a falling market when it’s actually rising (outside london) just sounds bonkers.

triathlon

lisyloo wrote: »

Why would you wait for price to drop in a rising market?
The fundamental i.e. immigration + population increase are good for the long term aren’t they? And if your local knowledge stacks up then you should go for it ASAP. Trying to time a falling market when it’s actually rising (outside london) just sounds bonkers.

Could not agree more.
He should go to the mad HPC.com website if wants so see a good reason why you should not wait for a crash, 20 years they have been waiting now, all those wasted years and lives.

michaels

triathlon wrote: »

For several weeks now I have had various conversations with various industries and people on how they are struggling with orders and work, Just had a conversation with some top end builders who have dried up with a few of them taking a long summer break abroad and making the most of it, and hoping things will be better in the Autumn. I know a few retailers and friends in the food industry and they have been hit for quite a while now.

Looks like Brexit fears are finally hitting home, how can this country be so stupid, lets just pray we come to our senses before it gets worse. Thank God I am in the BTL game, the last place people will cut back will be the roof over their head. I suspect a recession is heading our way by the end of 2019/start of 2020. Has anyone else seen any warning signs?, it seems to be hitting so many areas now, even the trades, plumbers, chippies and sparks who I know a lot of and who you can never tie down are finding things a little tougher which is a shocker for me. But looking on the bright side I can start fishing around more for cheaper prices now.

Amazing given how small our economy is (according to the Remainers) that Brexit not happening is leading to slow growth all around the world, not just in the UK but in Europe (Germany was as good as in recession last year), the US and China.