Deemed 50% Export v Actual Export

Zarch

In the past three months my actual export has been 67%, 64% and 60%. I can see this only rising through the summer.

We have a Combi Boiler and have no plans or physical space (in next ten years) to retrofit install any sort of header tank/thermal store, so no Immersun/iBoost planned.

Maybe a EV will come, but that is probably not going to be for another 3 or 4 years when prices drop. Maybe i'll get a battery too to attach to the solar, but that will be when prices come down too.

Bottom line, I currently have no equipment that can make best use of all this free solar energy!!

So could I make a few more quid going 'actual import' versus 'deemed 50%'?

Lets see.

Between mid-Oct and mid-April I generated 1500 kWh.

So 750kWh is the calculated '50% deemed' export figure.

I actually exported 885kWh during this time (so 59% of what I generated). Bear in mind this was through the winter.

If Feb, March and April are anything to go by this could be as high as 70% perhaps?

Anyways.....

750kWh x 5.24p (pre April export rate) = £39.30

Octopus Energy Outgoing
https://octopus.energy/blog/outgoing/

885kWh x 5.50p (current Octopus fixed export rate) = £48.67

So less than a tenner extra in 6 months in export payments? (remember, these are different and separate from your generation payments on your time of install FIT rates)

Maybe this would be a fairer set of calculations come Oct again when I have a year's data and more importantly a full summer of numbers under my belt?

What could be more interesting moving forward is the Outgoing Agile plans from Octopus, which changes every half hour based on demand just like their Agile Incoming tariff.

https://octopus.energy/agile/

What’s the typical half-hourly Agile Outgoing price range?

On our Agile Outgoing tariff, the price you'll get paid per kilowatt hour ranges from 4p (outside peak hours) to around 10p/kWh at peak. (For comparison, the Fixed Outgoing unit price is 5.5p/kWh all the time).

How do you work out the Agile Outgoing prices?

The Agile-like Outgoing payment is calculated from the wholesale price every 30 minutes, plus distribution use-of-system generation credit (GDUoS), plus transmission use-of-system credit (TNUoS) between 4.00pm and 7.00pm, all discounted by the loss factor for the home.

The loss factor is usually around 10%, generation around 0.85p/kWh and transmission 6p/kWh.

The formal calculation is therefore:

(1 - Loss factor) * (APX price + TNUoS benefit 4.00pm-7.00pm) + GDUoS benefit

All GDUoS, TNUoS and Loss Factors will vary depending on your network region.

Typical range is therefore 4p/kWh outside peak hours (corresponding to Agile import prices at around 8p/kWh) to 10p/kWh (corresponding to Agile import prices at around 35p/kWh).

Well, you did ask, to be fair...

So completeness, Bulb have also introduced a export tariff with a variable price between 3p and 5p.

https://bulb.co.uk/blog/how-to-help-suppliers-support-small-scale-generators
https://community.bulb.co.uk/discussion/9032/export-tariff-has-been-launched
https://bulb.co.uk/blog/buying-the-energy-you-export

You would hope that more of the bigger energy companies will start to offer and perhaps compete for your unused energy under the new Smart Export Guarantee (SEG) system.

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/the-future-for-small-scale-low-carbon-generation

Bottom line. If you have a iBoost or similar diverter, use a battery or get near 50% usage by whatever means you're probably better staying as you are on Deemed 50% Export.

But if you don't use all that generated energy and you have a smart meter, then maybe Actual Export could get you a few more quid?

Any thoughts?

Zarch

So thinking about including the summer..... my 5.1kWh system should generate 4452 according to PVGIS

4452 / 2 for deemed 50% import = 2226

50%: 2226 x 5.38p (April onwards export tariff) = £119.75
60%: 2671 x 5.5p (Octopus fixed export) = £146.90
65%: 2893 x 5.5p (Octopus fixed export) = £159.15
70%: 3116 x 5.5p (Octopus fixed export) = £171.38

So if I do get towards 65% I could be potentially £40/year better off?

Something to think about then? Better in my pocket than theirs?

Downside is that as I only had my solar installed last September I can't move until this coming September. There is some rule about needing a year of FiT under your belt.

If you have started receiving FiTs within the last 12 months, the FiTs rules mean that you won't be able to switch to Outgoing Octopus just yet.

Reed_Richards

I am new to all this so very hazy about the whys and wherefores. Can you not get your current electricity supplier to install whatever meter it trusts and pay you for actual export? I am not talking about any particular scheme like the Octopus one; just as a general principle.

Martyn1981

I wonder if the older installs, on 3.72p qualify. I export about 3,000kWh's and get paid for about 2,250kWh's.

If I get a battery and an EV, I expect to consume about 1,900kWh's more, but also plan a small install which will generate approx 1,400kWh's, so don't need to fear future changes.

Ectophile

Reed_Richards wrote: »

I am new to all this so very hazy about the whys and wherefores. Can you not get your current electricity supplier to install whatever meter it trusts and pay you for actual export? I am not talking about any particular scheme like the Octopus one; just as a general principle.

The electricity companies know that a large proportion of people export more than they use. So the 50% deemed export means free electricity for them. They have no incentive to fit an export meter, even if the customer wants one.


However, the newest smart meters should measure exported electricity. If that's the case, then the electricity company have no option but to pay the correct amount. But not all smart meters are calibrated for export.

zeupater

Hi

Don't know if you've come across this thread on using PV with small ASHPs yet, but when you get time sit down with a cup of coffee & have a read as it may suit what you're looking to do ...

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=4715287

HTH
Z

joefizz

I'll just add to this that here in NI we moved last year mid year from deemed export to actual export.
Bit of a kick in the you know what for those who had added that calculation into their iboost ROI.


It wouldnt be a difficult thing to change/enforce new T+Cs of export payments to enforce proof including photo of export meter and then leave it up to you to get a real export meter installed.


As Ive mentioned before we are a small enclosed part of the UK so its easy to use us to trial stuff to rollout elsewhere...


Similarly FWIW I have no reason to believe I wont be paid for 20 years worth of ROC/FIT payments. Then again I have no reason to believe I will be paid for 20 years worth of ROC/FIT payments ;-) Legislation can be changed ;-)

mmmmikey

I'm betting that changing tarriff regimes are going to be the subject of much debate and discussion over the next couple of years!

I suspect that any export payments made as part of the Smart Export Guarantee will be part and parcel of a supply contract which is how I understand the Octopus and Bulb offerings work. That is, you have to buy your electrcity from them in order for them to buy your electricty from you. As such, in order to work out any benefit you need to compare the net cost (supply-export) with what you're paying and receiving at the moment. So you might get an extra £40 for the export bit, but that's no benefit if it costs you £40 extra for the import bit.

SEG payments may be "market driven" but that doesn't necessarily mean they will relate to the value of the energy being exported. It could well be that energy providers offer artificially high export rates to attract customers, compensated for by higher import rates. I suspect they will have to do this to make it look attractive as the value to them will be relative to what they could buy the same electricity for at wholesale rates, which are clearly much lower than the rate we pay as a consumer.

To complicate things, any new SEG scheme is possibly (or probably?) going to hit the ground at the same time as a much wider range of time of use tarriffs. So the comparison between what you're paying now (net) and what you would pay (net) has the potential to get messy, unless of course you have a good understanding of your daily use profile. How will Uswitch / Energy Club etc. work with any degree of accuracy without taking into account usage profiles?

It will be interesting to see what kind of export rates are on offer through SEG and the spread between peak and off-peak TOU rates. My expectation (or should I say hope!) is that careful analysis and planning will provide significant opportunities for savings by taking advantage of off-peak rates, but who knows?

Spreadsheets ready, everyone......

Zarch

mmmmikey wrote: »

Spreadsheets ready, everyone......

You won't be surprised to know that I've already mapped out the last 7 months of the Octopus Agile tariff pricing against the last 7 months of my energy usage/import broken down into 30 min chunks to compare like for like. :rotfl:

Good news, I'll be better off (before even thinking about their export offering)...... especially if can remind the wife not to turn the tumble drier on between 4pm and 7pm. :eek:

So I've initiated to the switch over process from EDF. (Octopus referral code in sig if anyone else is interested..... you get £50 credit) wink, wink!

I had also mapped out usage against their GO tariff:
https://octopus.energy/blog/go-faqs/

Day: 13p
Night: 5p (12.30am and 4.30am)
And a standing charge of 25p day

It didn't quite work for me........ not until I get an EV or battery that is and I can shift some usage.

joefizz

mmmmikey wrote: »

I'm betting that changing tarriff regimes are going to be the subject of much debate and discussion over the next couple of years!

It will be interesting to see what kind of export rates are on offer through SEG and the spread between peak and off-peak TOU rates. My expectation (or should I say hope!) is that careful analysis and planning will provide significant opportunities for savings by taking advantage of off-peak rates, but who knows?

Spreadsheets ready, everyone......

It will get interesting as a lot of this matures and the removal of ROCs/FIT tie in with reaching certain milestones.
One thing is for sure, the paying for wind turbines to be turned off during excess periods is one of the key issues being addressed at the minute, primarily in terms of storage of this energy but also in varying and time of use tariffs.
I was going to make a post on the battery thread about this the other day but have been travelling so havent been sitting long enough to formulate my thoughts coherently (or incoherently depending on your point of view).
Traditionally E7 was introduced or viewed as a response to utilising base load at low demand times so whether that be imported/home nuclear to now wind at night etc. It was an either or with homes being designed around it (storage heaters etc) whereas now I would be interested in an E7 tariff in late Nov/Dec/early January to charge my battery at night and then revert to a normal tariff for the rest of the year when I draw virtually nothing from the grid. As in the other thread its the daily standing charge that rules that out and although I recognise Im far from a normal user, its this flexibility that will be built into the system in years to come. Thats not really a wish, its something that generators/suppliers etc will need to introduce to manage their own systems going forward.


I can see future governments just stopping ROCs/FIT entirely as well as not paying at all for export (they do it elsewhere) or indeed some sort of pseudo nationalisation of home generators (some of the more extreme green 'parties' policies already talk about this), so a lot of peoples calculations for future ROI may be in vain. Of course they may not but as usual the truth is probably somewhere in between, it really depends on economic/environmental and political considerations going forward.


I agree about one of the most interesting things being how companies balance the off peak/peak and how indeed that is measured in future (actual usage as opposed to a fixed time, if everyone sets their batteries to charge at 2am then that will introduce another peak period so charging times may have to depend on cycling or network signals, which of course puts the charging cycles in your suppliers hands - sorry we couldnt charge you at the cheap rate at mid winter but...)
At the minute/recent past the thinking has been around subsidies/incentives to reach certain goals/targets but the RHI scheme here in NI and its botched/fraudulent implementation has soured public opinion. Everyone here knows of some empty chicken shed being heated to 35C or golf clubs or church halls where the snow doesnt lie on the roof in winter (along with cannabis farms) and we are sick of it. The deemed export is another cash cow that is waiting to be cracked down upon and why things like the iboost have flourished... for now... Human nature to be selfish and make out like bandits while they can, problem is that eventually that all gets found out and addressed.

Its far easier to concentrate on demonising or concentrating on those who exploit current schemes rather than coming up with comprehensive, connected, detailed infrastructure plans to actually move forward.



Going back to the E7 idea, it should be relatively simple to just install meters that do both E7, normal tariffs, export etc etc and perhaps 'smart' meters are the way, they should also be able to limit the amount of import (as well as export), so thats going to make it really interesting. Look at the way telecoms and mobile telecoms in particular has gone in terms of tariffs and pricing and flexibility. Energy isnt really there yet but it is getting there.


Localised storage is the concept/implementation that will really open this all up and we are still a bit away from that at the minute (discounting STOR facilities) but it is coming.

1961Nick

I reckon the future off peak overnight demand is going to be dictated by EVs. There is huge scope there for generators to be able to offer incentives in order to be able to decide when & how much energy is supplied. The more flexible you are, the cheaper the rate - if you want to fully charge your Tesla in 6 hours you pay top whack - asking for a minimum 50% charge on a Leaf over 8 hours gets you a much lower rate.