Bad news re what I spend

Terron

missile wrote: »

When challenging "ridiculous claims" it is better to quote from recent reliable data which supports your opinion - not from 2016 which undermines it. :rotfl:

The article I quoted is from August 2018. The one you quoted is not reliable for the reasons I have already given.

jamesd

Terron wrote: »

You wrote "Well, for some, when far from retiring." which is those people I was saying the 4% rule worked better for. That was agreement.
I also agree the state pension will make a big difference, but that can be subtracted from the target income.

Lets look at the cfiresim numbers to compare with say 20k income target and age 55 retirement with 8.5k state pension starting 13 years later on a 30 year plan.

Set success rate to 100% and also fees to 1.18% as UK adjustment. Set spending to 20000 and spending plan to inflation adjusted. Set initial portfolio to 500k. Use max initial sending as the thing to investigate. Use retirement year 2019 and end year 2048. Run simulation. Spend is 15,852. 20000 / 15852 * 500000 = 630835 so change portfolio to that and run the simulation again. 20k target hit well enough.

Now add social security of 8500 starting in 2032 and run the simulation again. Max income 24393. 20000 / 24393 * 630835 = 517226. Too high, income is 20791. 20000 / 20791 * 517226 = 497547. 20167 income, close enough.

Pretty clear that 25 times does a pretty good job for retiring at 55 with a full state pension to come, using the other assumptions, notably that 20k income and only 30 year plan.

Change the plan to 40 years, pot to 500k and income drops to 19239, still not at all a bad job.

Back to 30 years but now state pension starting in 2022, a more typical early retirement. Income 23514 so quite a bit of overshoot.

How about a 12k target for retiring at 55 in a 40 year plan with state pension in 13 years? I'll try a 250k starting pot. Income 11721. 260k start gets to 12053, close enough. 22 times the target income. Not 25 times which would be 300k but not truly horrible.

25 times does fairly decently overall, for very early retirement on incomes those who aren't low earners are likely to want.

So not that great a disagreement IMO, at least for those cases.

Terron

jamesd wrote: »

25 times does fairly decently overall, for very early retirement on incomes those who aren't low earners are likely to want.

So not that great a disagreement IMO, at least for those cases.

I agree.


I would also say that for practical uses there is no real point in using more precise methods until you are getting close to retirement.

justme111

Little did I know that in a couple of months at the age of 46 fit and driven I am going to be diagnosed with a condition that results in median survival of 4 and a half years while on treatment that can severely affect quality of life.
Planning is good of course but please be under no illusion you have control.
Merry Christmas , prosperous lives and good planning to you all

hugheskevi

Little did I know that in a couple of months at the age of 46 fit and driven I am going to be diagnosed with a condition that results in median survival of 4 and a half years while on treatment that can severely affect quality of life.

It may be little consolation, but diagnosis of life-expectancy beyond about a year (or even less) is extremely uncertain.

Planning is good of course but please be under no illusion you have control.

Health planning is as important as pension planning, probably even more important.

A healthy diet, little or no alcohol, plenty of exercise of different types (cardio and strength-based), not being stressed or depressed, plenty of sleep and being at optimal weight doesn't give any guarantees, but it does significantly help the odds.

michaels

justme111 wrote: »

Little did I know that in a couple of months at the age of 46 fit and driven I am going to be diagnosed with a condition that results in median survival of 4 and a half years while on treatment that can severely affect quality of life.
Planning is good of course but please be under no illusion you have control.
Merry Christmas , prosperous lives and good planning to you all

Thanks for the reminder we can all make detailed grand plans but fate can have other plans for us.

justme111

hugheskevi wrote: »

It may be little consolation, but diagnosis of life-expectancy beyond about a year (or even less) is extremely uncertain.

Health planning is as important as pension planning, probably even more important.

A healthy diet, little or no alcohol, plenty of exercise of different types (cardio and strength-based), not being stressed or depressed, plenty of sleep and being at optimal weight doesn't give any guarantees, but it does significantly help the odds.

It is of massive consolation. Knowing that some people live for many years is a source of comfort ( or delusion) that allows me to live psychologically normal life. I even still track my expenses:rotfl:
Re lifestyle factors : again, agree absolutely.I am just not sure I have ever heard of anyone like that apart from you

Terron

justme111 wrote: »

It is of massive consolation. Knowing that some people live for many years is a source of comfort ( or delusion) that allows me to live psychologically normal life. I even still track my expenses:rotfl:
Re lifestyle factors : again, agree absolutely.I am just not sure I have ever heard of anyone like that apart from you

I once read in a book that the author was given a similar prediction, but on looking closer he found that in his case all the indicators were that he was likely to live longer than the median, being younger and fitter than most who received that diagnosis, and he did. I can't remember where I read it though.

justme111

Yes that's what I counting on. Plus in those years something new may come up with regards to treatments.
On another hand my ability to work on which my financial well being and planning is based has an even larger threat to it now.

twiglet98

OP I wish you well. None of us knows what curve balls will be thrown. I hope 2020 ends better than it has begun.