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Sweden as a model for electrification
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GreatApe
Posts: 4,452 Forumite
The period 2030 - 2050 is going to be mass electrification assuming the world is serious about reducing FF usage. So what will electricity demand be like in this period for nations that want to electrify heating and transport?
Sweden is perhaps the best (not perfect but the best real world) example of what electrified heating looks like. They use almost zero natural gas in Sweden so virtually all heating for both homes shops offices and industry is electrified and their consumption is ~12.8MWh/capita
By comparison the UK is 5MWh/Capita and France is 8.2MWh/capita.
France uses half the NG as the UK does for the same population becuase it has eletrified more of its heating than the UK has. Lets double that to add another 3.2MWh to France to theoretically get their NG use down towards zero too = 11.4MWh
We can further estimate the UK uses ~70GW of NG for non power station uses lets say 50GW of electricity displaces that NG so we get 6.6 MWh on top of the 5MWh currently used = 11.6 so more or less all three figures are very close for what a nation needs to electrify heating
France 11.4 MWH
UK 11.6 MWH
Sweden 12.8 MWH
Lets use the French guess as it is the lowest.
So how will a UK of 70 million people in the future generate ~800TWh annually needed for current electricity usage and to electrify heating? That is a massive increase from the ~335TWh currently produced
Sweden is perhaps the best (not perfect but the best real world) example of what electrified heating looks like. They use almost zero natural gas in Sweden so virtually all heating for both homes shops offices and industry is electrified and their consumption is ~12.8MWh/capita
By comparison the UK is 5MWh/Capita and France is 8.2MWh/capita.
France uses half the NG as the UK does for the same population becuase it has eletrified more of its heating than the UK has. Lets double that to add another 3.2MWh to France to theoretically get their NG use down towards zero too = 11.4MWh
We can further estimate the UK uses ~70GW of NG for non power station uses lets say 50GW of electricity displaces that NG so we get 6.6 MWh on top of the 5MWh currently used = 11.6 so more or less all three figures are very close for what a nation needs to electrify heating
France 11.4 MWH
UK 11.6 MWH
Sweden 12.8 MWH
Lets use the French guess as it is the lowest.
So how will a UK of 70 million people in the future generate ~800TWh annually needed for current electricity usage and to electrify heating? That is a massive increase from the ~335TWh currently produced
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An estimate for electrifying oil needs
UK uses 110GW of oil if electrifying transport is 3x as efficient that works out to ~4.9MWH/capital which could be an additional ~340TWh annual demand to make it ~1,100TWh for the UK from ~335TWh now
The period 2030-2050 is going to be the biggest transformation in electricity and the grid ever seen going from ~335 TWh to ~1,100 TWh
No nit picking I know there are many professional nit pickers in this board it does not matter if the figure is exactly 1,100 TWh or not the general point is the electricity infrastructure is going to have to boom in 2030-2050 if heating and transport and industry is to be electrified and move away from !!!!!!0
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