UK Employment hits new highs

GreatApe

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415

The number of employed people in the UK has risen again, to a new record number of 32.7 million people

Unemployment fell by 35,000 to 1.34 million in the period, putting the rate below 4% for the first time since 1975.

GreatApe

During the low of the recession the employment rate was as low as 70% now it is 76% this is an important metric mostly overlooked

It means about 3 million households went from 1 wage earner to 2 wage earners or a very significant jump in their household earnings

So while headlines might be only small increases in real pay the reality is that for most people especially on the lower end, their household incomes are up significantly perhaps as much as double

I wonder if this also explains part of the reason government coffers are doing better than expected. A family with one low wage earner will get a lot in benefits if that goes to two wage earners most of those benefits will stop and tax and spending by this household will be up

James_Green_1982

Peak employment indicates a recession. It's a lagging indicator.

fatbeetle

Your evidence for that?

James_Green_1982

fatbeetle wrote: »

Your evidence for that?

By definition, you only know something has peaked once you are past that point. Otherwise you are still in an upward trend.

Official figures are always looking back into the past. As the economy is cyclical, the peak of economic growth (eg high employment) must be followed by a recession.

So either:
1. The economy has peaked and we are going into (or are in) a recession.
or
2. The economy has not peaked and next months figures will be better.

phillw

James_Green_1982 wrote: »

Peak employment indicates a recession. It's a lagging indicator.

You're the one that introduced the word peak.

James_Green_1982

phillw wrote: »

You're the one that introduced the word peak.

True.
We'll have to wait and see. Only time will tell.

But it's worth bearing in mind that the nature of the workforce has changed (become more casualised, ZHCs etc) since previous recessions.
So whilst official unemployment figures will appear lower - that won't tell the whole story.

phillw

James_Green_1982 wrote: »

So whilst official unemployment figures will appear lower - that won't tell the whole story.

Exactly, official unemployment figures are like makeup and a pushup bra.

Tromking

James_Green_1982 wrote: »

True.
We'll have to wait and see. Only time will tell.

But it's worth bearing in mind that the nature of the workforce has changed (become more casualised, ZHCs etc) since previous recessions.
So whilst official unemployment figures will appear lower - that won't tell the whole story.

Admittedly I’ve only heard this from the Government, but apparently job creation of late has been mostly of the full time variety.
It’s anecdotal of course, but I don’t know anyone who is unemployed.

snowqueen555

I had read somewhere they had changed the metrics used to make it look better then it is, someone know about that?

Thrugelmir

Fewest number of people in retirement in 25 years. Says a lot about people having to work to supplement their incomes.