Are we about to enter an explosive phase of house price inflation?

Newnoel

I have come across the concept of the 18 year property price cycle in a number of media pieces recently:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6363767/Does-18-year-property-cycle-predict-house-price-boom.html

Good explanation of the 18 year cycle from Fred Harrison here:
https://www.propertygeek.net/article/the-18-year-property-cycle/

He correctly called the crash of late 2007 in 2005, unlike the numpties at HPC and Moneyweek who have been calling the peak for everyday since the early noughties.


Based on the Harrison curve, it looks like we are currently in the mid-cycle “wobble” phase, triggered by the Brexit uncertainty. Once that lifts, quite possibly in the next few months, then it looks like we are in for a period of 5-7 healthy inflation before a crash and it begins again.


What are your thoughts on this?

letitbe90

You wouldn't expect a lottery winner to win again right?

Don't hold the fact that he called it correctly before with any value. Someone is bound to have been right, everyone is predicting every possible outcome every day every year.

Newnoel

The 18 year property cycle has been repeated now for well over 200 years.... But it's different now, eh???

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

kinger101

Also in the news today, the Oxford English has removed the word "gullible" from the dictionary.

Did you bother to look at the graphs?

Thrugelmir

Newnoel wrote: »

The 18 year property cycle has been repeated now for well over 200 years.... But it's different now, eh???

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Now it hasn't. The average timespan is 18 years. As a consequence the actual time span differs.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Now it hasn't. The average timespan is 18 years. As a consequence the actual time span differs.

You also shouldn't consider property prices in isolation.

It seems similar to moore's law where at one point it was assumed that meant computers were double the speed every year. However Moore's law was that the number of transistors on a chip doubled every year. At the time with double the transistors you could get double the speed, now you cannot. The doubling has also slowed down over time and each shrink is requiring more and more effort, so the current estimate is doubling on average ever two years but it may change.

The 18 year cycle is people just getting complacent and then we mess things up, so far that has hit house prices and then it's recovered. But there is no guarantee that the next time we mess things up that they will recover in a similar way. Maybe one day we'll stop messing things up (although that appears to be unlikely).

Thrugelmir

[QUOTE=phillw;75573496
It seems similar to moore's law where at one point it was assumed that meant computers were double the speed every year. However Moore's law was that the number of transistors on a chip doubled every year. At the time with double the transistors you could get double the speed, now you cannot. The doubling has also slowed down over time and each shrink is requiring more and more effort, so the current estimate is doubling on average ever two years but it may change.

[/QUOTE]

First main frames I worked on were the size of a tennis court. We had two. Operating back to back to provide sufficient processing power. Back then everything was stored in magnetic drives. So glad to see the back of punch cards.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

First main frames I worked on were the size of a tennis court. We had two. Operating back to back to provide sufficient processing power. Back then everything was stored in magnetic drives. So glad to see the back of punch cards.

OT The computer museum at bletchley park is amazing, these days when people talk about building a computer they just mean plugging off the shelf bits of a computer together. Some of the machines there you could actually imagine building in a shed.

If Alan Turing saw what was available today then it would blow his mind.