Should I go for Solar or Not.. the ultimate dilemma!

5abi

I have been thinking about Solar for the longest time. I moved into my new house Sep last year and now have the opportunity to do something about it. It was on my to do list until recently when I found out that FIT is about to end.

Long story short, I have reached out to some suppliers who can still fit within the deadline and registered me as well. I get all sorts of opinions about Solar. Most people say its not worth it anymore and the returns take too long. But then I ask myself why there are almost a million homes with Solar in the UK and why almost all the installers are super busy right now trying to fit PVs.

I have read about returns from Solar VS Pension and I dont know how to swing it. There are other comparisons as well but I am none the wiser. Should I do a Brexit and venture into the unknown by getting Solar? :D:D

I am using about 616kw per month with electricity and around 2100 kw on gas per month.

I have been told about projections that installers give me will always being inflated, however a couple of them say that the projections are guaranteed via EVPS who pay out if the projections are not up to scratch.

I have a weird situation where I dont have a lot of roof space as it is like a pyramid, so to get the best out of a south facing roof, I should install a few panels on the flat roof at 20 degree angle. My roof is 16 degrees off S towards SE.

I have received quotes from 3 installers.

For a 3.3KW system I have been quoted £6295 with 11 QCells Panels and Solaredge and Iboost for water including Labour etc. The projections are backed by EPVS and the warranty is insured by MCS or HEIS or something something.

ROI Year 11

Another installer has quoted £5800 for 12 Qcell panels but cannot do an 20 degrees incline on the flat roof as they dont have the skills or equipment for that. They also include SolarEdge and Iboost. These guys are projecting 4.2kw. His projections are not backed by EPVS and has taken into consideration how great the weather was last year.

ROI Year 7

Anyways long story short, I dont know what to do. Should I leave it and forever cuss myself for not doing it because I dont know how well the system is going to perform.

OR

Should I go for it and forever cuss myself because the returns are terrible and all projections were a lie.

Hexane

First, domestic solar panels are no longer a way to make huge profits. If you have to borrow money to install them, or if you're planning to move house soon, or if your house has substantial kerb appeal at the moment but would look truly dreadful with solar panels on it, or if you have access to a matching-contribution pension scheme from your employer and you aren't currently getting the maximum employer matched contributions, then it's not worth it. If you can rule out all of that, and are willing to look at it as a long term investment, it still makes sense.

Second, those quotes look high. I was quoted substantially less than that for similar sized systems with Solaredge (eventually went for a much larger system without Solaredge).

Third, if you don't have any shading issues then you don't need Solaredge. I had three quotes, two from what I describe as salespeople (although not high-pressure ones), and one from an installer (that is, the man who gave me the quote was the same man that ultimately did the climbing about on my roof). The "salespeople" pretty much refused to give me quotes without Solaredge, the "installer" strongly advised me against Solaredge (even though his website said how wonderful it was). Solaredge adds substantially to the cost.

I suspect that salespeople like Solaredge because it's fancy technology that they can dazzle the customer with (they tried that with me) and increase the price and thus their commission. Whereas perhaps installers don't like Solaredge because it's they themselves that will be having to go back up on the roof every time one of the devices goes wrong.

Fourth, what on earth is this EVPS thing? A google search for it with related terms, gives your question above as one of the top results! Solar companies' "return on investment" projections take into account not just the predicted energy output of the proposed installation based on historical weather, but also how much of the generated power they "assume" you will be using (thus saving on your electric bill), and also (controversially) projected increases in electricity prices that they "assume" will happen in future.

My "salespeople"'s projections assumed that I would be able to use 50% of the generated power, which is misleadingly optimistic, and my "installer"'s projection assumed that I would be able to use 35% of it, which is a lot more realistic. I think I've seen people on this forum saying that salespeople have given them projections with as much as 65% assumed usage, which is outrageous (though one person here actually manages 80% usage, but that's with a very unusual setup).

Anyway, how can EVPS guarantee the outcome of a "projection" that makes assumptions about how you live your lifestyle, e.g. only using the dishwasher or the tumble dryer when the sun is shining? Does the small print really say that your electricity bill will go down by so many hundreds of pounds per year, and that if it doesn't then you can make a claim for the difference? That would be absurd.

I suspect that instead the guarantee is that the system will generate a certain amount of energy per year. So it doesn't guarantee your savings or the return on investment. As such, it's sensible for them, but not all that useful for you. It certainly doesn't guarantee you a ROI of a particular number of years.

Fifth, "warranty is insured". My installer included an insurance-backed warranty as part of the package, he didn't mention it as a selling point though. It's worth having - some people on this forum have been caught out by not having this, because so many installers have stopped trading - but I believe it only covers the work done by the installer, not the warranties for the equipment. So don't assume it's something it's not.

Sixth. There are some problems with terminology. Your second installer is "projecting 4.2kw". Does that mean they're using 12 x 350W panels - which are nice powerful panels but means it's the peak total power output, not a "projection" - or does it mean they're projecting 4200 kWh energy production per year?

Seventh. I'm not sure why installer number 1 is recommending only 300W panels when you have very limited roofspace so need all the power you can get.

Eighth. A prediction of 7 year return on investment sounds wildly over-optimistic when the cost per kWp is so much worse than the benchmark (around these parts) of £1k per 1kWp. It suggests to me that the salesperson is using questionable "you will use X proportion of the generated power, so you will save Y on your electric bill, because we can assume electric prices will rise by Z per year" assumptions, as mentioned above.

Ninth. Do check whether 20 degree inclined panels on your flat roof requires planning permission or not.

Tenth, yes Iboost makes sense.

Eleventh and lastly, go for it! But only get Solaredge if you actually need it, and try and get them to knock £1000 or so off those prices. (If you mention what part of the country you're in, people can make recommendations for alternative installers).

Old Chinese proverb. When is the best time to plant a fruit tree? Answer: Twenty years ago. When is the second best time to plant a fruit tree? Answer: Today.

The same works for your question. When was the best time to install solar panels? Answer: seven years ago. When is the second best time to install solar panels? Answer: Today, because it's your last chance and you still get twenty years' feed in tariff from them.

Coastalwatch

Hi 5abi,
To cut a long story short, with regard to cost and possible return on investment the general consensus of opinion on here is to pay little more than £1k per 1kWp of panel output. If you wish to add Solaredge and an Iboost then expect to add another £1k or so on top. Solaredge is useful if you have shading issues although not essential if you don't, but it is a nice to have for monitoring panel output and potential problems should you be unlucky enough to have a panel dropout or fail at some later date.

Either way your supplier needs to be MCS acreditted.
In terms of return on investment I tend to ignore any figures taking inflation into account and basing calculations purely on prices known as they are today. We had our PV array installed last April based on costs similar to those above and wouldn't be without it now.

5abi

@hexane and Coastalwatch

Many thanks for your comments and putting some effort into responding to my query. Most appreciated.

Are you both able to share the names of the installers and traders who did yours? Since I have not committed to anyone, I can still make some calls to find out if they can give me a quote and fit and register before the end of March. I am just googling most of the time and just randomly picking suppliers.

There is not a huge amount of feedback for solar installers on the web, just a few for the big and expensive ones.

I think I can fit 12 panels and will definitely go for solaredge just to ensure I can see panel wise stats. I will also consider a battery at some point in the future.

The 2 installers I have quotes from are in2gr8ted solutions and home smart energy.

They are both saying they have EPVS membership. I dont know the value of this membership however they say that because of EPVS they need to be very careful with the projections they are providing me.

Here is an example of a projection and quote I got from in2gr8ted solutions



Home smart just sent me a homemade projection which looks kinda similar but also inflated to quite a degree and to make it look sexy it starts from year 7.



Please do recommend installers asap.

Thank you

Hexane

I'm very happy to post my experiences with this, mostly because it's only from other posters to this forum (you know who you are, including coastalwatch and others) that I was able to demand a sensible solution for my own home and not get ripped off.

Also I do want you to go ahead with getting panels installed before feed in tariff ends. But not at all costs...

So, answering your questions from top to bottom, my installer was Red Electrical based in Chorley in Lancashire, they can easily access Yorkshire and Manchester and Lancashire and Cumbria and places near there, but I don't know if they are now very busy. They did used to travel much further, so feel free to give them a call. Unless you're in London or Cornwall or Kent etc obviously.

Who talked you into Solaredge? OK, sorry, that's your choice, but if you are interested in the financial returns then it's an odd choice. Red Electrical included a USB dongle for my inverter (normally a £50 or so extra) which lets me view my generation from the web, and probably from some app too. Their reason for including this (which they never mentioned as a sales point) was that they did not want their customers to miss potentially months of feed in tariff and export money just from not checking that the whole system was still working. I would say "that's all the monitoring I need", except that I also have a myenergi thing (the expensive verison of iBoost/immersun) that also shows me input/output and silly happy or sad faces on its LCD display. (Yes really, I much prefer it to my "smart" meter"). From what I understand, solar panels are really dumb devices with no moving parts that almost never go wrong - unlike solaredge modules. Inverters often fail, but you would definitely notice that if you are keeping an eye on things via the web or an app.

Do you see the part in what you pasted that says "The assumptions for electricity and heating fuel price RPI inflation of 7% per year"???????

and the part that says "are in no way guaranteed" ?

How does this square with "guaranteed via EVPS who pay out if the projections are not up to scratch"?

While I am here, I should mention that I am much more ignorant than most people on this forum, I have just been reading their posts to protect my own investment - the whole idea that any sort of immersion heater diverter (I have one) can save you over £100 *in the first year* is also ludicrous. You would need to be heating your hot water by paying a man to shovel coal into a boiler, all year round, to save that much. Or something along those lines. I think these projections are like many we see here. Wrong.

Over to those with more knowledge, experience, and calm, than me!

Hexane

I should say that "recommend an installer" is not a question I can answer (except what I have said variously above) except that I got better results from a local expert than from a salesman for any sort of chain. Even after ruling out Project Solar or whoever is currently most hated, you are always better off excluding the firms with salespeople and talking to a person who is a "tradesperson". People on this forum often suggest talking to *several* locals who have *recently* had panels fitted, and asking who they used and how things have been.

I am thinking the value of "EPVS membership" is zero? Are they really offering you a guarantee of an amount of money?

5abi

Fair enough Hexane

Just saw this on Red Electrical website

https://www.redelectrical.co.uk/beware-the-villians-mis-selling-solaredge-upgrades/

Ill reconsider other inverters. I got quoted for a chinese made Solis as well.

I am indeed based in London so this company is out I guess. Good information regardless.

Thank you for this.

5abi

Yes I should have read that carefully. Epvs is nothing more than a marketing tactic it seems.

Hexane

There is nothing wrong with Solis, or at least I hope so - Red Electrical installed a Solis inverter for me, as you say, it is a Chinese product, in fact from Ginlong, who very helpfully provide me with a website with graphs of generation and etc. Sadly it is only every 5 minutes not every second.

Don't look down on Chinese products; or, think carefully first. Almost all solar panels are Chinese. Do the inverter manufacturers want to get a reputation for unreliability? Probably not. If they're not made in China, where are they made?

5abi

Yes happy to go with Solis not an issue. As long as I can get an app to monitor whats going on.

I have reached out to a couple of local installers now.

JKenH

I have a couple of Solis inverters as well.

Here is a link to a demo version of their site

https://www.ginlongmonitoring.com/Terminal/TerminalMain.aspx?pid=4466