Crystal ball time

elantan

Hi all,

bit of a no doubt silly question and I know no one can know the deffinate answer, but what are your thoughts on how funds will behave during and post Brexit ? maybe a year or so?

we're still dealing with the transfer but I have noted the amount offered isn't guaranteed and I am wondering how timing might affect things, say the transfer happened on or just after Brexit could it potentially have a negative effect ?

I need to transfer soon, but don't want to risk losing too much so may be better holding off just a little bit longer ( possibly up to a year, but it's not entirely sure) I understand I would have to pay to get another offer (£5-600) for the privilege but that may be preferable to losing tens of thousands.

I fully appreciate no one can know everything but trying to ensure the right choice is made and would appreciate any input

thanks in advance

[Deleted User]

hello,
You may receive opinions from people, but that is all. You are correct that it would take a crystal ball to give you the correct answer.
Sorry I haven't been any help but I am unable to predict the effects(if any) post Brexit. Regards , Ann

AnotherJoe

It's all about what happens to the currency* so it depends what sort of a brexit it turns out to be and what happens to the Euro. Good luck with that.

P.s you seem to be assuming some knowledge on the part of the readers. What transfer is this and who is offering this amount ?

* assuming you are sensibly widely invested.

elantan

thanks Ann,

I'm kinda thinking that's the case, but remembering how when the decision was made there was an ( albeit very small) wobble, and throughout the process there have been other very small wobbles, just trying to figure out the likelihood of it happening again, we need to transfer the pension and the sooner the better for our current situation, but it isn't without it's risk ( it never is without a risk, just Brexit may make that risk higher or more likely)

elantan

AnotherJoe wrote: »

It's all about what happens to the currency* so it depends what sort of a brexit it turns out to be and what happens to the Euro. Good luck with that.

P.s you seem to be assuming some knowledge on the part of the readers. What transfer is this and who is offering this amount ?

* assuming you are sensibly widely invested.

sorry I had put a post up the other night, I should have done a quick 're cap, it's a deferred benefit pension held with the employer, we are aware it's not a wise move to transfer these pensions 99% of the time, but on this occasion it is sadly what we need to do, we need to transfer ASAP however we are concerned that if we transfer it too fast that due to Brexit we may loose tens of thousands or something

JoeEngland

If economic forecasters can't predict the future accurately I don't think this forum is likely to be any more prophetic.

AnotherJoe

So your real question is what drives the employers CETV calculation.

No one here will know that in detail, obviously, given no one knows the company or the pension ! There will be some common factors, the stock market being one of those, but gilts also drive this (AIUI) and there's also the company and how much it wants to encourage people to leave the scheme.
You have no real option other than either wait a long period, say 6 months to a year (and you could still find the Brexit can being kicked down the road) or just get on with it. I suggest the latter especially given that the only evidence you have is a decline over the past few months.

Bimbly

My non-financial expert point of view is:

If the current value is what you want to transfer, then transfer it.

Once you have transferred it, don't worry about the market.

The market may go up, it may go down (my personal prediction would be for "volatile"), but at least you have secured what you need. It is better than waiting and taking a risk that you lose money.

Dox

CETV factors are very unlikely to react to Brexit with the same speed as markets - actuaries take their time in advising trustees on possible changes.

You should be more concerned with where you will hold the funds once transferred - but expecting anyone here to have any inside knowledge (i.e. predict the future, which is what you seem to be hoping for!) is pointless speculation.

Malthusian

Is the purpose of the transfer to boost the death benefits due to terminal illness?

If you have a CETV and there's enough time left on the guarantee period to get the transfer done, Brexit isn't going to affect the CETV.

And after that funds will behave in the exact same way they always have. I.e. they will go up and down constantly, often go down for short periods, occasionally crash by 40% or more (even more for high-risk funds), and in the long term beat cash and inflation providing they are properly diversified and you don't panic.

elantan

Thanks everyone, yes it's more the CETV that I'm thinking about, we are using an IFA to transfer and will be entrusting him to invest it for us as it is quite a bit of money and although I dont mind using trackers for my pension it isn't as much as my husband's and I don't have the time or knowledge to take control of it, I have no issue paying an IFA for their services.

it isn't due to terminal illness but a forced change in employment role resulting in less than half wages, which will have a huge impact on the pension benefits and money.