30% fall in property if no deal brexit

andrewf75

spadoosh wrote: »

So people whose business it is to analyse risk and try and make money from it (banks) have decided that because of brexit its no point in doing their jobs? Theyre just winging it? You might want to warn their shareholders.

I've clearly made my point badly, all I meant was that I think those whose business is to analyse risk and make money from it are expecting some form of deal to be done or a delay. Of course the risk of no deal is priced in, but its not the outcome they think most likely.

Does that make sense now?

A quick look at the bookies odds tells me that for the UK to *not* leave by March is 1/4 on.

antrobus

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

Oh, no. It will be much worse than that. Brexit will be the end of civilisation as we know it.

There will be fleas the size of rats sucking on rats the size of cats, as mutant gangs roam the high street looting shops to find the last remaining pot noodles in the country.

Or perhaps the UN will launch a relief operation.

House prices will be the least of our worries.

Nick_C

Herzlos wrote: »

We've still got to pay the £39bn anyway.

We don't have to pay the £38bn at all. We are agreeing to pay it in an attempt to maintain good relations with the EU.

If we leave on WTO terms, the EU will have a huge budget deficit which the remaining 27 will have to make up. We will save our net contribution of around £8 to £10 billion a year. Tariffs on EU imports will be about £8 billion higher than tariffs on our exports. And we will be free to spend our own money in the way we decide, instead of the EU taking money from us, and giving some of it back for us to spend as they dictate.

Nick_C

A 30% drop in house prices would be a good thing.

Herzlos

A good thing for who?


Plus, the £39bn is to clear our liabilities, it's got nothing to do with good will or future access. It's likely not enforceable, though, but would be political suicide to renege on.

ruperts wrote: »

For prices to fall 30%, a lot of people who were formerly in a stable enough position to afford to buy must have fallen on seriously hard times.

It'd need a huge drop in employment / pension income forcing people to downsize I think. So we may see prices drop in clusters around big employers if they do move out of the UK as expected.


So you might see a lot of houses go on the market in Sunderland with corresponding price drop, but London will stay fairly consistent.


OR you'd need a huge drop in mortgage affordability, such as huge inflation.

lookstraightahead

I think in the UK we place so much emphasis on owning a home that it's unhealthy. People get artificially wealthy, renters think they are poor. There is a clear snobbery about house size and I really can't get it out if my head that it's all a pile of bricks. One earthquake, one tsunami, one bomb just flattens bits of material and then it's worth nothing.

PhilE

New trade deals with China and India will mean an increase of immigration, this will be the trade off for trade deals with Asia. India and China have a surplus population which they need to reduce, so any trade deal with them means offloading their excess.

As we will not be part of the EU, we will be in a weaker position to negotiate, and will have to accept them.

This is something the Brexiters have failed to understand. Immigration may well be on the rise after Brexit.

The rich Chinese love to invest in foreign countries. That may actually cause property to rise in price, as seen in the West coast of Canada. There will also be a high demand for accommodation of poorer Indians and Chinese, and low supply.

So property prices could continue to rise in this scenario, in the major cities at least.

andrewf75

Herzlos wrote: »

Plus, the £39bn is to clear our liabilities, it's got nothing to do with good will or future access. It's likely not enforceable, though, but would be political suicide to renege on.

surely if we don't clear our liabilities, it will have quite a lot to do with good will and future access! Hard to put a price on "good will with the EU" in terms of what its worth, but I'm pretty damn sure £39bn will be worth every penny!

Its ridiculous that anyone is advocating no deal. Why don't the hard Brexiteers instead advocate a managed hard Brexit, which would obviously include paying our dues?

andrewf75

lookstraightahead wrote: »

I think in the UK we place so much emphasis on owning a home that it's unhealthy. People get artificially wealthy, renters think they are poor. There is a clear snobbery about house size and I really can't get it out if my head that it's all a pile of bricks. One earthquake, one tsunami, one bomb just flattens bits of material and then it's worth nothing.

I agree its unhealthy. But because of this, renters *are* poor. Renting costs as much as buying, but you never reach a point when you've paid it off. If you don't own your home you can't retire, simple as that.

Houses are insured aren't they?

movilogo

New trade deals with China and India will mean an increase of immigration,

At most it will be increase in temporary migration. UK can control number based on work permits issued. Additionally non EU nationals have no automatic settlement rights in UK.

Whereas under EU, such migration is without any limit. Any EU national can come to UK and available public services like NHS etc.