Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

andrewf75

Tromking wrote: »

IMO, it’ll be stay in.
Parliamentary deadlock followed by an art. 50 extension for 2nd referendum and after a few temporary concessions on FOM from Brussels, Remain will win.

I'm not sure there is that much appetitie for a 2nd vote. I think BINO is a more sensible route. If we don't leave, we'll have our own Trump in power....PM Farage anyone?

BINO is much underrated IMO. Its our natural place. We're not interested in the political project, we just want the trade benefits and like the idea that we're completely independent.

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

...
As for Rees Mogg he favours lower taxes and less regulation.

As does big business.

It's not difficult to work out why global companies shift HQ functions to Dublin...and if an even better place popped up...they would move there.

Oh, the EU might try and address the issue in time, but big business will be ahead of the curve planning their next move.

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

precisely, that's not going to help poor people is it? the country's infrastructure is already crumbling as it is, we need investment in the regions. Lower taxes and less regulation = less equal society, the regions will be even more neglected

Look at your *own* life; as I should look at mine; and ask yourself if you are helping the poor people in your locality!

I see lots of evidence of double standards. Comfortable people who pay a membership privilege to order bucket loads of stuff off Amazon, and then in the next breath bemoan the decline in their local town centre shopping.

Unless we can somehow couple the local business activity to the community, we aren't going to see any sort of renaissance.

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

I'm not sure there is that much appetitie for a 2nd vote. I think BINO is a more sensible route. If we don't leave, we'll have our own Trump in power....PM Farage anyone?
...

A Farage/Trump style PM prospect is merely competition.

If the current political lot want to avoid the prospect, then they need to outperform the other options.

They need to accept their part in failing the public.

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

Look at your *own* life; as I should look at mine; and ask yourself if you are helping the poor people in your locality!

I see lots of evidence of double standards. Comfortable people who pay a membership privilege to order bucket loads of stuff off Amazon, and then in the next breath bemoan the decline in their local town centre shopping.

Unless we can somehow couple the local business activity to the community, we aren't going to see any sort of renaissance.

Agree. But personally while I try and support local business as much as possible, I don't see the majority giving it much thought. I think its the job of government to take the lead rather than leave it to people/markets. Unless you have more government involvement big business will always win over local economies.

mayonnaise

Tromking wrote: »

IMO, it’ll be stay in.
Parliamentary deadlock followed by an art. 50 extension for 2nd referendum and after a few temporary concessions on FOM from Brussels, Remain will win.

I really don't see a 2nd referendum happening nor do I think we should have one.
IMO, parliamentary deadlock on May's deal/no deal, followed by an art.50 extension and we'll end up with CU +SM.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

As for Rees Mogg he favours lower taxes and less regulation.

By lower taxes, he means lower taxes for himself. By regulation, he means rights and standards, though he'll have you believe he's talking about 'pointless red tape foisted on us by the EU' but I don't think he can name any.



He's not talking about making life for the poorer any better. It's only going to get worse if we start losing things like paid vacations, sick pay, maternity leave, breaks, minimum wages, safety regulations and so on.

andrewf75

mayonnaise wrote: »

I really don't see a 2nd referendum happening nor do I think we should have one.
IMO, parliamentary deadlock on May's deal/no deal, followed by an art.50 extension and we'll end up with CU +SM.

The ridiculous thing is that the government could have worked out within a few days of the vote that a hard Brexit was impractical, not issued the red lines which will now be broken and we'd be in a situation where a comfortable majority of the country were reasonably OK with things.

mayonnaise

andrewf75 wrote: »

The ridiculous thing is that the government could have worked out within a few days of the vote that a hard Brexit was impractical, not issued the red lines which will now be broken and we'd be in a situation where a comfortable majority of the country were reasonably OK with things.

Tim Shipman's book 'Fall Out: A Year of Political Mayhem' is an excellent read on this. May's red lines were written and pushed by Nick Timothy, Downing Street Chief of Staff until the 2017 election, and staunch brexiteer.
The Maybot doesn't do ideas, nor vision.
The hard brexit vision outlined in the infamous Lancaster House speech was Timothy's, an unelected bureaucrat.

spikyone

Herzlos wrote: »

He's not talking about making life for the poorer any better. It's only going to get worse if we start losing things like paid vacations, sick pay, maternity leave, breaks, minimum wages, safety regulations and so on.

There is no evidence that we will see any of those eroded. We already offer more than the EU minimum for many of them, if not all. Some EU countries do not even have a minimum wage (ETA: And at current FX rates, our minimum wage is higher than Germany's)