Where to invest money in a crisis

Iain_For

Computer_Beginner wrote: »

That's how the MSM initially portrayed it, the northern working classes unhappy with low wages etc.
It's now been shown that the leave vote was pushed over the line by the middle classes in Middle England and the SE of England (Think nostaglia for the 1950s, bunting on the village green, fans of Jacob Rees-Mogg etc.)

Those northern working class who did vote, were more likely to vote leave. (The MSM got that bit correct). But in numerical terms, the Middle England leave voters were more likely to actually vote.

That's according to Danny Dorling, Oxford Geography Prof.

I think the 'Young Remainers / Older Leavers' stereotype did actually turn out to be correct.
Which is interesting, because if those people stick to their views, Brexit is more likely to be reversed in any future referendum.

The whole thing has very little logic to it, because if the concern is about increased immigration of workers pushing wages down and house prices up, the Middle England voters were voting against their vested interests.

Wouldn’t disagree with that analysis, though it’s still symptomatic of a division that Brexit will not address and that will continue to generate political uncertainty. My investment life has been through several crises, the worst (personally) being the 90s house price crash that took over 10 years for me to recover from (had a BTL in negative equity). Recency bias does, I think, lead people to think that the rate of recovery from a crash will be akin to the 08 financial crisis, which was relatively quick in stock market terms. What if it takes longer, much longer?

StevieJ

atush wrote: »

Absurd. He didnt want a referendum, but had to offer one as an election promise. So had to call for one.

Wish he had spoken to someone who wass in market research as the question/s asked often determine the answer. So could have been a better question being asked.

Could have been a stronger hurdle? A friend of mine who voted for Brexit said yesterday ' What fool puts a question to the public with such constitutional and economic ramifications asking for a simple majority?' 'Unless of course you don't mind losing'. (I guess he may be regretting his vote?)

StevieJ

Computer_Beginner wrote: »

The whole thing has very little logic to it, because if the concern is about increased immigration of workers pushing wages down and house prices up, the Middle England voters were voting against their vested interests.

The strangest thing was the perception from places like Sunderland of being overrun by foreigners, when in fact their own area was 93% white British?

https://www.quora.com/Why-would-Nissan-Sunderland-workers-vote-overwhelmingly-to-leave-the-EU-therefore-undermining-their-jobs-when-it-is-their-employer%E2%80%99s-biggest-export-market


https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/may/18/ethnic-population-england-wales

ukcarper

StevieJ wrote: »

Could have been a stronger hurdle? A friend of mine who voted for Brexit said yesterday ' What fool puts a question to the public with such constitutional and economic ramifications asking for a simple majority?' 'Unless of course you don't mind losing'. (I guess he may be regretting his vote?)

Just show how out of touch MPs were and still are, Cameron might have offered and proposed referendum but 554 MPs voted for it the majority because they were sure remain would Win.

movilogo

Investing in index fund has always been a pretty safe option with good return over long term.

Mainland EU has its own fair share of problems so don't think investing there would be any better.

Filo25

movilogo wrote: »

Investing in index fund has always been a pretty safe option with good return over long term.

Mainland EU has its own fair share of problems so don't think investing there would be any better.

Pretty much risk wherever you put your money though (as always really!).

For the UK you have Brexit, a challenging political environment and the distant potential of Labour under pretty Hard Left leadership taking power.

For the EU the political issues certainly aren't improving.

For EM you have trade wars, the damaging impact of the strong dollar along with some particularly high debt levels (even by the standards of the Western world).

For Japan the demographics and government finances always have the potential to weigh on the economy.

For the US you have high valuations and macroeconomic uncertainty around adding a load of fiscal stimulus to an economy that already looked like it might be late in the cycle.

I'm pretty contrarian compared to most and still overweight UK (I genuinely think a no deal on Brexit is unlikely, as for all the bluster nobody will want to own the economic problems that follow), holding UK small and mid caps at least gives some protection if we get appreciating Sterling off the back of a better than expected Brexit outcome. A Corbyn government is far enough away that I won't let that concern me too much for now.

StevieJ

Filo25 wrote: »

I'm pretty contrarian compared to most and still overweight UK (I genuinely think a no deal on Brexit is unlikely, as for all the bluster nobody will want to own the economic problems that follow), holding UK small and mid caps at least gives some protection if we get appreciating Sterling off the back of a better than expected Brexit outcome. A Corbyn government is far enough away that I won't let that concern me too much for now.

My small cap funds seem to have been quite rewarding even through the fall in Sterling. Standard Life and Marlborough up 50 to 60+% over the past two years.

Uxb

Computer_Beginner wrote: »

I think the 'Young Remainers / Older Leavers' stereotype did actually turn out to be correct.
Which is interesting, because if those people stick to their views, Brexit is more likely to be reversed in any future referendum.

That is because the young just think of Europe as place to visit and maybe some work.
Once they get older and get higher in the food chain of firms they will have to negotiate with the EU and deal with businesses at a higher level in Europe: then they would have changed their minds had we remained.
I've spent all my life in UK exporting industry. Dealing with the EU was so bad that we basically ignored the entire continent preferring to deal with the rest of the world, and strange to report we did not need a trade deal to do this.
Once you have had to actually deal with the EU and see all the various tricks they and the core EU countries use to screw over and obstruct UK businesses in Europe (level playing field single market my arrrse)-

To give one easy example in the public domain: the lengths the French went to obstruct UK ski instructors with the relevant qualification from teaching in France was one of the legendary ones - done by endless court cases and obstructionist tactics to delay and delay for umpteen years claiming you need a special French diploma etc etc even arresting and fining qualified instructors: actions more akin to a third world dodgy dictatorship country.

Look forward to the latest one from the EU as a result of a court case following an accident on a farm in Romania I think it was (yes really!). All vehicles which are propelled and have a person sitting on them must be insured at all times even if only used on private land - so that means your sit on mower in your back garden is going to have to have motor insurance - yipee and all cars even if SORN 'd or classic car in an exhibition hall must be always insured - it's all nuts

You will understand why the older of us voted to leave: we have had 30 years of it and have simply had enough: we pay a lot into it and seem to get nowt back.

Thrugelmir

ukcarper wrote: »

but 554 MPs voted for it the majority because they were sure remain would Win.

Was it a free vote?

ukcarper

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Was it a free vote?

Don't know but if they feel as strongly as they do about brexit being so bad for the country why did they risk the referendum.